Good morning. In 1976, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished 0-14 in their first season in the NFL. They went on to lose an NFL-record 26 consecutive games before their first win against the New Orleans Saints in Dec. 1977.

Their legendary coach, John McKay, had some great lines.

After a loss, a reporter once asked McKay “What do you think of your team’s execution today”? McKay replied “I’m in favor of it”.

He also said "Kickers are like horse manure.”

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RANKINGS

WR Marquise Brown flew up to WR26. We want to leave every draft with the Cardinals contract-year WR.

RB De'Von Achane dropped to RB44 after suffering a shoulder injury. Achane's potential in Miami's wide-zone scheme is high, but durability is a concern for the 188 pound RB. He's currently “week-to-week” and remains buried on Miami's depth chart for now.

RB Jaylen Warren moved to RB42. After busting off a 62-yard TD run this weekend (25 yards longer than the best of Najee Harris' career), Warren proved he is the most explosive back in Pittsburgh. Zeke/Pollard vibes.

RB Kyren Williams moved to RB61. The second-year back has impressed Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay in training camp and has reportedly locked up the backup/3rd down job in LA.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba dropped to WR28 after suffering a wrist fracture. He will miss 3-4 weeks.

Last year, these rankings guaranteed you drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown (+8 spots above consensus)…

STORY

Yards Per Route Run

Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) is a simple stat. It is the amount of receiving yards for a receiver divided by the number of routes they ran. YPRR is commonly used by analysts as a measure of efficiency for wide receivers - it does a great job of capturing elite WRs.

But the personnel on the field can dramatically increase or decrease the YPRR of the wide receivers. Offenses that use sets like 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs) make it easier for their receivers to have a higher YPRR. Inversely, the more WRs on the field, the harder it is for them to achieve high YPRR.

Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy was one of the first to note the bias towards WRs who played in mostly two WR sets against those in three-WR sets.

2023 Takeaways

In Tej Seth’s excellent article on Sumer Sports, Revisiting Yards Per Route Run, Seth creates an Adjusted Yards Per Route Run model to adjust YPRR among WRs in different systems.

“For example, in 2022, Drake London and Jerry Jeudy both had roughly the same YPRR at 2.04 and 2.08 respectively. However, Drake London’s offense only used 11 personnel 33% of the time while Jeudy’s offense utilized 11 personnel 58% of the time. [Jeudy was competing with more WRs for looks].

Because of that, London was expected to have a 1.72 YPRR and Jeudy was expected to have a 1.35 YPRR. While London and Jeudy had a very similar standard YPRR, Jeudy is much higher in Adjusted YPRR because of the personnel his team used compared to London’s.”

Jerry Jeudy overachieved compared to Drake London, and now enters Year 1 with Sean Payton.

While YPRR has a “year-to-year stability value of 0.51 (on a scale of -1 to 1 where 1 means that the previous data and current data are exactly the same)”, the better measure is Expected YPRR with a “year-to-year stability of 0.67”, per Seth. This is because we can expect WRs in the same scheme to see similar opportunities.

Seth’s chart highlights the players who could see similar volume in 2023 despite underachieving last season (and are good buy-lows), including:

• Diontae Johnson

• Michael Pittman

• Marquise Brown

• Chris Godwin

• DK Metcalf 👀 

MARKETS

Commanding Hype

📉The entire Colts RB room. Colts gave their disgruntled star RB Jonathan Taylor permission to seek a trade. The Dolphins are interested. If a team trades for him, it means 1) JT is unlikely anywhere with the same workload as on the Colts and 2) If Taylor is traded for anything but another RB, Kareem Hunt could be the primary target for the Colts. He’s worth stashing.

📈 Daniel Jones has looked sharp after finishing as QB9 last season, despite his best WR being chopped liver. Entering his 2nd season under HC Brian Daboll and the best receiving corps of his career - including an elite weapon in TE Darren Waller - Jones is severely underdrafted at his QB15 ADP. Don’t forget that the Giants QB averaged almost as many rushing yards per game as Josh Allen.

📉 Kyle Pitts was only on the field for 9 of the 17 snaps that QB Desmond Ridder played in their latest preseason game. Why? Of those 9 snaps, Pitts only ran 5 routes. Why? It might be time to ditch all hope in the Falcons pass catchers before it’s too late. If Kyle Pitts cannot survive Arthur Smith’s offense, how can I expect my fragile mental state to survive another season with Pitts.

📈 Samaje Perine is a forgotten man since the reports of Javonte Williams impressive recovery. But Williams may not reach a “bell-cow” workload this season in his return from injury.

HC Sean Payton has a history of utilizing two RBs (think Kamara and Ingram), where the RB2 has averaged at least 11 touches per game. During Perine’s time in Cincinnati, he averaged 18.2 PPR FPPG when he had 10+ touches. Samaje is an elite “handcuff” because he has flex value potential on a weekly basis, even if Williams is healthy.

📈Jahan Dotson continues to dominate and show great chemistry with QB Sam Howell, who has also looked better than expected. We loved Dotson last year. He should build off an impressive preseason as the 1B to Terry McLaurin’s 1A, especially after McLaurin’s turf toe injury. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception gets us even more hyped 👇️ 

Depth Charts

Rookie: Luke Musgrave

Packers rookie TE Luke Musgrave is putting fans on notice. Growing up, Musgrave played QB, WR, and DB before bulking up to 230 lbs and switching to TE his junior year of high school (per Dane Brugler's The Beast). At 6'6" 253 lbs with 4.61 speed (4th fastest among TEs at the Combine), he’s a beast. Musgrave already showcased his versatility in Green Bay's offense by lining up out wide and running jet sweeps.

Yes, rookie TEs rarely succeed in fantasy football. Per @MunderDifflinFF of Fantasy Data, none of the 211 TEs drafted since 2009 have finished in the top-5 in fantasy points per game, and only three have finished in the top 10 at the position. Playing time is typically an issue - but not for Musgrave. After posting 80% and 89% route participation (per @DwainMcFarland) with the starters in the preseason, it's clear the Packers plan to use this rookie TE.

Musgrave's ceiling will depend on the success of this unknown offense, but he is worth a dart throw at current ADP of TE21.

QUICK SLANTS

The Other Warren

📖 Read Preseason Week 2 Recap: Immediate fantasy football takeaways from Saturday's games by PFF’s Nathan Jahnke.

“Jaylen Warren played only 23% of first-and-10s last season, but that number is up to 33.3% with the starters over the Steelers’ first two preseason games. It’s a small sample of three drives, but it could be an indication that Warren will be more involved on early downs this season. He should be one of the top late-round draft picks.”

📖 Read Exploiting The Default Rankings: Yahoo 2023 by Adam Levitan of EstablishtheRun. “The good news for us is that these default rankings are not particularly efficient. So there are edges for us to exploit against opponents who are relying on them.” Adam likes the WRs Yahoo defaults have too low, including Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen and Brandin Cooks.

🎙️Listen to 10 Dynasty Sell-High Trade Candidates by Scott Bogman and Pat Fitzmaurice of FantasyPros, including what to do with Kyle Pitts.

📺️ Watch Matt Harmon of Reception Perception on three deep sleeper rookie WRs you need to target in fantasy this year, including Jayden Reed, Marvin Mims and… (watch video)

Creator of the Day

Dave Kluge

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) started as a news correspondent at FantasyPros in 2019, taking NBA news from other sites and putting a fantasy spin on it. He began writing MLB coverage later that year and eventually worked his way into an NFL role for the 2020 season. Dave joined the all-star team at Footballguys in 2021, where he published What I Learned From 500 Fantasy Football Drafts, based on his viral Twitter thread.

Avoiding Alexander Mattison

Dalvin Cook is gone, so this will be Alexander Mattison’s year. Right? Right?? I’ve been telling myself that since deciding to keep Mattison in a keeper league.

Dave is fading Mattison this year. He outlines why in his excellent article Alexander Mattison is the Dead-Zone Running Back to Avoid.

The bull case: His per-start numbers throughout his career average 20.4 PPR points per game. Only Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler surpassed that number last year, showcasing how high Mattison's ceiling can be if everything works out.

The red flags: Mattison's efficiency metrics have dipped since his rookie year (see chart below).

Rarely do we see a running back trending down in efficiency buck the trend. And considering he saw the fewest average defenders in the box in his entire career last year, those dips in efficiency are especially problematic.

Look at Mattison's six career starts: Only two were against teams with good run defenses (2020 Falcons and 2021 Rams). In these two tougher matchups, Mattison averaged 11.5 carries, 33.5 rushing yards, 2.0 receptions, 16.5 receiving yards, and 0.5 touchdowns - or 10.0 fantasy points per game. In his other four starts, Mattison averaged 26.1 fantasy points per game.

What if they sign a veteran RB? Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette are still free agents. The Vikings reportedly also had a $7M offer on the table for Cook before he decided to test free agency. Is it that hard to think the staff may be willing to spend some of the $19M in available cap on a veteran running back?

Read the full article here, or read the 9 Injury-Away RBs Dave recommends drafting late, including Cardinals sophomore RB Keaontay Ingram.

If you’re looking for a go-to, high volume fantasy football show, here it is. Published up to 6x per week during the NFL season, Dave & the team will be giving immediate takes on news with transparency in how they approach their thinking. Recommend starting here and hearing to their thoughts on Christian Watson 👇️ (or listen on Spotify & Apple)

Tweets of the Day

Check in on any Buccaneers fans in your life. It’s a tough time for them.

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