Good morning. Anyone else smash Kirk Cousins MVP odds at after he debuted the handlebars?

With no trade suitors, the Colts will keep RB Jonathan Taylor on the PUP list. A few important notes:

1. Players on PUP are paid their entire base salary.

2. If Taylor does not return off the PUP, he risks his contract year not counting. This could lead to the same issue again in 2024.

Our guess: Taylor returns as late as possible to ensure the season counts towards his contract and he can become a FA in 2024.

To understand how this news hit the fantasy football community, we sent a scout to local communities:

TLDR: The Colts RB you want in fantasy football is Anthony Richardson.

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RANKINGS

WRs Marvin Mims Jr. and Jayden Reed have jumped way ahead the “boring” tier of Van Jefferson, K.J. Osborn, Zay Jones, and Allen Lazard. Mims should start for Denver - check out Scott Barrett’s thread on Mims’ elite analytics profile. Reed will be Green Bay’s starting slot receiver - Matt Harmon loves his potential and thinks he can grow into an even bigger role.

QB Kyler Murray has dropped to QB28 after growing speculation that he could sit the entire season. Murray could be a late round flier if you can stash him on your IR, but be ready to drop as needed.

RB Jonathan Taylor dropped to RB26 after being placed on the PUP list. He will be out for at least the first 4 weeks of the season while he and Indianapolis send “Can we talk?” texts.

TE Luke Musgrave has moved up to TE14 after realizing there isn’t much of a difference between him, Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta. All 3 rookie TEs look to have earned instant receiving roles and are worth a late round pick.

WR Jerry Jeudy may miss up to Week 4, per @jmthrivept: “I think it is a reasonable timetable to tell Jerry Jeudy drafters that you should expect to be without him for your rosters until at least week 3-4.”

Side note: K Cameron Dicker has been added as K13 because of his name. Obviously. #DickerTheKicker

MARKETS

Final Off-Season Cuts

📉 D’Onta Foreman is the Bears’ RB3, meaning Khalil Herbert is the definitive lead RB after seeing 70% of the snaps with Justin Fields in the preseason finale. Rookie RB Roschon Johnson came on the field during third downs with the starters. Herbert - arguably the best runner in the league last year - remains our biggest target at ADP.

📈 Rashaad Penny was a big winner with rosters finalized. The Eagles cut RB Trey Sermon and didn’t trade for Jonathan Taylor. Public Service Announcement: Penny led the NFL in yards after contact the past two seasons and his 10.2% explosive run rate the last 3 seasons ranks best among RBs with 150+ carries. Penny has an elite ceiling behind the Eagles o-line. If healthy…

📉 Watching Cardinals games this season is something we don’t plan to do. They cut veteran QB Colt McCoy because he’d rather be a fantasy analyst than play for the Cards (same). They are yet to name a starting QB (citing a “competitive advantage” 🤡), but options include Joshua Dobbs, fifth round rookie Clayton Tune or my buddy “Frank The Tank” (is on) in Arizona.

📈 Alexander Mattison trending up after Vikings beat reporter Connor Allen of The Athletic said Minnesota is committed to making Mattison “the guy”. Mattison was “super active as a receiver” in camp. The Vikings also waived rookie backup RB DeWayne McBride, leaving only Ty Chandler as a threat for snaps.

📈 Anyone who drafted a Miami Dolphins RB. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson should lead the Dolphins backfield while rookie De’Von Achane may mix in as he recovers from shoulder injury. Mostert and Wilson should both see double digit touches per game in a high-powered Miami offense. Last season, the Dolphins RBs had eight Top-15 RB weeks.

📉 TE Albert Okwuegbunam was traded to the Eagles, where he plans to continue to disappoint fantasy managers. A few notable players cut include Doug Pederson cutting his own son, Josh, as well as Pats QB Bailey Zappe and Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin.

Depth Charts

Rookie: Tank Dell

Anything but a Tank (5’8” 165 lbs), Dell plays bigger than any WR in this class. Last year, he led college football in receiving yards (1,398), total receiving TDs (17), TDs vs. man coverage (11), and yards against press coverage (826), per @MichaelFFlorio. You wouldn’t think of a 5’8” WR as a jump ball winner, but Dell had the 4th highest contested catch win rate in this draft class (63.6%) and showcased his playmaking ability this preseason.

On top of his ridiculous résumé, Dell comes to the Houston Texans via the recommendation of C.J. Stroud (who knows WRs, having played at Ohio State) and is competing with an unproven Nico Collins, a washed Robert Woods and Noah “Mediocre” Brown for targets. Dell could easily become the Texans' WR1 this season - promise us you’ll take the late round flier at his WR68 ADP.

QUICK SLANTS

Tight End University

📖 Read Underrated Upside: 2023 TEs by Ryan Heath (featured below) of Fantasy Points.

“The Giants reportedly viewed Darren Waller as the best “WR” available on the market this year. Their view was likely justified, as Waller is quite experienced operating as the first read – just as an outside WR would. Sure, Waller underwhelmed the past two seasons (mostly due to multiple injuries), but in the two seasons before that, he averaged 18.7 FPG in TE Premium formats (would have been 21% better than last year’s TE2). And during each of those two seasons, he appeared on over 50% of ESPN playoff rosters.”

“Last year, Greg Dulcich averaged 41.1 YPG – the 6th-best mark by any rookie TE since at least 1990. With Dulcich entering Year 2, we must remember that the sophomore TE breakout is one of fantasy football's most powerful and reliable laws. It was only a few short weeks ago Payton was calling Dulcich his “joker” and waxing poetic about Jeremy Shockey, Jason Witten, and Jimmy Graham.”

📖 Read Three bold predictions for every NFL team ahead of the 2023 NFL season by Sam Monson of PFF.

“Skyy Moore finishes with 1,000-plus receiving yards. With JuJu Smith-Schuster gone in the offseason and Kadarius Toney consistently dealing with injuries, Moore has a chance to take a big step in Year 2 and become the team’s leading wideout.”

🎙️ Listen to Adam Levitan, Evan Silva, and Mike Leone of Establish the Run discuss strategy, sleepers, and busts for each fantasy position in a four part podcast series. ETR’s episodes available on Apple: QB, RB, WR, and TE.

On Miles Sanders (ADP of 49): “I don’t think people realize what going from Philadelphia’s run scheme, quarterback play, and offensive environment to Carolina’s is going to do to Sanders. He’s not going to elevate and gain stats out of thin air.” Hard to love Sanders this season.

📺️ Watch WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba practice despite having just undergone wrist surgery. His left hand was heavily wrapped, but he seemed to be catching passes without much issue. Per @jmthrivept, JSN is a safe bet to return by Week 2 or 3, at least.

Creator of the Day

Ryan Heath

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Ryan Heath (@QBLRyan) published his first article back in 2017, on why Matt Breida (then undrafted) was a better pick than Carlos Hyde (5th round ADP). Bold move. He was a senior in high school at the time, so writing weekly fantasy articles helped complete a graduation requirement.

In 2019, all his content went through QB List, thanks to people like Erik Smith and Myles Nelson - he recommends you check out QB List’s work today.

Ryan has since joined Fantasy Points, where he published his Magnum Opus: Age Curves.

Age Curves: When Players Breakout

Are fantasy managers correct in their age-based discrimination? Ryan answered this question – and explained the impact of age on fantasy performance, especially on annual high-end producers like Christian McCaffrey, Davante Adams, and Travis Kelce.

Within each position, Ryan compared fantasy performance in each career year to the average baseline performance over an entire career. This resulted in the aging curves.

WR Fantasy Breakouts: Target Years 2-3

The fantasy football takeaway is simple – target Year 2 and 3 WRs in hopes they exceed expectations. Indeed, Ryan’s study from last year demonstrated sophomore WRs are ADP values in the middle rounds at much higher rates than other WRs. Last year, Ryan correctly identified Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Devonta Smith as the biggest WR values.

This season? Obviously, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Ja’Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are 2nd- and 3rd-year WRs who should be incredible in fantasy this year, and their ADPs reflect that.

But we can more actionably take advantage of the Years 2-3 breakout trend (for redraft) in the cases of players like Christian Watson, Drake London, Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson, Rashod Bateman, or Elijah Moore. Read Ryan’s article on Sophomore WRs here.

Read the full Age Curves article on Fantasy Points - you’ll learn when to move on from that Stud RB (hint, around Year 7).

Tweet of the Day

This Happy B-Day is like trading away multiple firsts to draft Trey Lance 3rd overall: funny.

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