🏈 Draft Day

Everything you should know before the NFL draft kicks off

Good morning. Remember Monday morning, when we said "See you tomorrow"? Turns out tomorrow meant Thursday morning. Today, like Brian Urlacher's follicles and Matt Patricia's career, we're back (from the dead).

Today's newsletter highlights everything you need to know before the draft kicks off at 8pm ET, including why some say this is an all time TE class.

The Best of the Beast

The Beast is live with 300+ pages covering everything you need to know about this year's rookie class. It's crazy, but you can access it for free with a subscription to The Athletic. Here's a snippet:

On Jaxon-Smith Njigba, the projected WR1: Although JSN doesn’t have the speed to run away from coverage, he skillfully throttles his speeds and uses different sink/body techniques to leverage defensive backs out of position and create pockets of separation. He won’t be an ideal fit for every role, but JSN is a crafty route runner with smooth short-area quickness and tracking talent to be a sure-handed target. He projects as an early NFL starter who is at his best in the slot.

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Finally: Aaron Rodgers Edition

The Packers and Jets finally agreed to a terms on the former 4x MVP QB Aaron Rogers, which included multiple picks. Unfortunately for Aaron, his time in New York may be a living hell if Zach Wilson has anything to say about it:

Aaron Rodgers said he's "just going to focus on this season" when asked about his long-term plans with the Jets.

Along with Garrett Wilson, the Jets possible draft plan is to pick Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, per @nfldraftscout. Wilson is the biggest riser this offseason.

  • Garrett Wilson had more targets in his rookie season than AJ Brown has had in any of his 4 seasons as a pro.

  • Since ‘88 only a few players have done what Wilson did in his rookie season. It’s likely that Wilson is better than AJ, especially for fantasy & he’s 3 yrs younger, per @DynoGameTheory.

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Draft Day

Must Read Rookie Content

I’m getting mixed signals on Will Levis. "Talking to someone plugged in, I was told “don’t buy the hype on Will Levis. The NFL isn’t really all that high on him.” Per a different source, “New England absolutely loves him, and has obviously soured on Mac Jones.” I suppose both can be true — he can fall to the middle of the first round without the rest of the league being enamored with him," per Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points Final 2023 NFL Mock Draft.

PFF's 2023 NFL Draft: Every team's biggest need ahead of the first round. "Dallas has some defensive line needs to attack, and losing Dalton Schultz could push tight end up the priority list. But with Ezekiel Elliott gone and Tony Pollard coming off injury, running back is their biggest need — one they could address in Round 1." [With Bijan Robinson]

Marvin Elequin provided a thread on his 2023 Rookie WR Prospect Model with added commentary on how he grades this class compared to 2021 and 2022. The WR Marvin plans to draft a lot of? Josh Downs - UNC. He checks all the boxes:

  • Elite Sophomore Season

  • Leads class in college PPR/g

  • Early-Declare

  • Projected 2nd Round Pick

Scott Barrett also released his annual 2023 Pre-NFL Draft Rookie WR Dynasty Rankings. Two of the spiciest takes:

To me, Smith-Njigba isn’t just “the best fantasy WR in this class”, he’s probably the 2nd-best fantasy WR prospect we’ve seen since at least 2012. Maybe NFL teams don’t see it that way, but I think this is definitely true from a fantasy perspective. He might be the best slot WR prospect of all time. And so, on that point, I think Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are legitimately fair comparisons.

On Marvin Mims: Mims found immediate success at the college level, averaging 4.07 YPRR as an 18-year-old freshman. This was good for the 7th-best mark by any Power 5 WR (min. 150 routes) since 2015. And, if age-adjusted, it’s the 2nd-best season in my database, which includes over 2,200 qualifying Power 5 WR seasons.

The Next George Kittle?

A few teams have obvious holes at TE, like the Lions, Packers, Chargers, Dolphins and Cowboys. Here are the TEs filling those slots:

  • Michael Mayer – Mayer’s your classic slow TE who is somehow always open and catches everything. He only ran a 4.70 40, but Mayer’s thiqqq and as tough as it gets. His ability to create separation with the subtle detailing of his routes and his willingness as a blocker put him ahead of typical TEs entering the NFL. He’s not an explosive field-stretcher, but his competitive nature and complete skillset make him a sure-fire 1st round pick. The majority of mocks have him heading to Dallas to replace Dalton Schultz. NFL Comp: Jason Witten. Dallas makes a lot of sense.

  • Dalton Kincaid – Kincaid is 6’3” 246 lbs, but doesn’t quite carry it the same way as Mayer. He has a slightly more slender build, which holds him back as a blocker. But as a pass-catcher, Kincaid is outstanding. He’s a fluid athlete who can make big plays from the TE position (8 catches of 25+ yards in 2022) and has the speed to create mismatches. Injuries are also a concern (has been battling a back injury since November), but he’s a consensus late-1st round pick – he would look great in some Bengals stripes. NFL Comp: Zach Ertz.

  • Luke Musgrave - His name sounds like a Country music star, but Musgrave is an elite TE prospect with a unique athletic profile. He didn’t play varsity football until his Junior year of high school, and initially played QB, DB, and WR before moving to TE and DE once he bulked up to 230 lbs. Now at 6’5” 253 lbs, and with a few years of consistent TE play under his belt, Musgrave has the ability to be a complete TE at the next level. Like many rookie TEs, he might take a few years to fully develop at the pro level – especially since he’s new to the position – but his natural athleticism and physicality make him an intriguing dynasty target. NFL Comp: Dallas Goedert.

Other TE to keep an eye on: Darnell Washington. Washington is a physical specimen. He’s 6’6” 264 lbs, has 11” hands (the length of a sheet of paper), 34 ⅜” arms, and also ran a 4.64 40. He played basketball in high school and was a 5-star recruit coming out of Desert Pines, Nevada. The dude is a BEAST.

He absolutely mauls defenders as a blocker, and is the ideal red zone target in the receiving game. His athletic profile will certainly drive him up draft boards, but like Musgrave, he will need some time to continue developing the nuances of his game. The worry for some in the fantasy realm is that Washington could end up being just a dominant run-blocking TE, but his elite traits make him worthy of an early dynasty selection.

Nothing beats Tyler Brooke’s comp – “Darnell Washington is if Marcedes Lewis and LeBron James had a baby, and that child became Rob Gronkowski.”

QUICK SLANTS

  • @jeffphowe from The Athletic wrote an article why Hendon Hooker is soaring on NFL draft boards. Hooker says he will be cleared "100%" by Sept 1st. Ouuuuu.

  • The Buffalo Bills are expected to take a WR in the first round according to @JoeBuscaglia.

  • Contrary to previous reports, Titans GM says they have not received any calls about trading Derrick Henry per Ian Rappaport.

  • Cardinals HC Jonathan Gannon said Kyler Murray made "good progression" last week as he recovers from ACL surgery.

  • Chargers GM Tom Telesco had "no update" on Austin Ekeler's contract situation and did not answer a question asking if he'd received any interest from other teams in a trade.

Thanks for joining us this morning - enjoy the draft, Bears fans.

Jake, Eddie and Coach D.

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