Good morning. We’ve got London games this morning (9:30 ET) featuring the Ravens and Titans, so be sure to check those lineups EARLY ⏰ 

And remember: no matter what happens today, your bad start/sit decisions are nothing compared to the Broncos GM blowing all their draft picks and $400 million on Sean Payton and Russell Wilson. And their GM gets paid to manage the team...

Good news to start your day: 49ers DE Arik Armstead was named Week 5 NFLPA Community MVP after he held a weekend of charitable giving for schools and students across Sacramento and the Bay Area, featuring books, bikes and a $100K donation.

You can support his important work through the @ArmsteadProject. Love to see it.

RANKINGS

David Montgomery rises to RB11. HC Dan Campbell called him a “carry the load” type of guy who could get 20-30 touches per game, while calling Jahmyr Gibbs a “change of pace” back. That’s music to the ears of Montgomery holders, who are loving his elite usage (4th in the league with 23.2 touches per game) and TD upside.

Amari Cooper falls to WR21. Deshaun Watson will miss his second straight game and could miss “multiple more games” (per Mary Kay Cabot). Cooper had only 2.6 FP last week with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB, and could struggle to produce with XFL legend P.J. Walker taking the reigns now too.

See our latest rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings 👇️ 

STORY

Start / Sit for Week 6

Sit Jared Goff vs TB. “Goff has Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown playing through multiple injuries. Expect a heavy dose of David Montgomery against a run-funnel Bucs defense that ranks 21st against the pass but second versus the run in DVOA”, per Dalton Del Don of Yahoo.

Start Zay Flowers vs TEN. Flowers has room for positive regression sitting at PPR WR33 despite ranking WR14 in expected fantasy points. The Ravens WR1 faces a Titans’ pass funnel defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to WRs.

Start Drake London vs WAS. “Washington runs the second-most man coverage in the NFL, which creates more targets for the alpha options in passing attacks. This season, Drake London has been that guy for the Falcons with a whopping 39% target share versus man — 25 percentage points above the next closest teammate at 14%”, per Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life.

Sit Jerome Ford vs SF. With Watson out, the Browns have the lowest implied team total you’ll see at around 13 points. Ford is seeing just 37% of the team’s carries since Kareem Hunt joined the backfield, per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports.

Start Rhamondre Stevenson vs LV. If there’s a get-right game for Stevenson, it’s this Raiders matchup. The Raiders defense is allowing 129.4 rushing yards per game and the third-most rushing yards from man/gap schemes (4.6 YPC), the scheme which the Patriots run at one of the highest rates in the NFL.

Sit Terry McLaurin vs ATL. “Washington is among the most pass-heavy teams, but they barely throw to their two best players and the Falcons’ AJ Terrell and Jeff Okudah are playing great perimeter coverage, limiting opposing outside wideouts to the 2nd-fewest yards per game (69.2)”, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points. This video shows what happened last time they faced off (Terrell INT).

Start Dak Prescott vs LAC. The Chargers are allowing 21.7 ppg to QBs, the fourth most in the league and this is projected to be one of the slate’s closest games.

Sit Tyler Higbee vs ARI. Despite the juicy-looking matchup, it’s hard to trust Higbee with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua dominating targets (Higbee had just 2 catches on 3 targets in Kupp’s return last week), per Jamey Eisenberg of CBSSports.

Desperate? Same. Start Tyjae Spears vs BAL. “Spears leads the league in juke rate and is 3rd in breakaway run rate … Derrick Henry continues to see a big difference in fantasy scoring in Tennessee losses, and the Ravens are 4-point favorites Sunday. The game script could easily lead to more snaps from Spears this week,” per Dalton Del Don of Yahoo.

Click here to send us an email with your start/sit questions.

HOSPITAL VISIT

The five most important injuries you should know about.

1. Justin Jefferson’s injury looks more like a 6-week absence, per Jesse Morse. Kirk Cousins confirmed that he doesn’t plan on waiving his no-trade clause, making JJ a buy for contending teams.

2. Saquon Barkley is questionable. He has zero incentive to suit up until his ankle is fully healthy. The Giants are struggling and he didn’t get an extension.

3. Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, the Jets two best corners, are both out against the Eagles. DeVonta Smith week incoming.

4. Tyrod Taylor (Giants) and PJ Walker (Browns) will start for their respective teams. Downgrade all skill players.

5. Tee Higgins (questionable, ribs) is expected to play vs Seattle, per Jeremy Fowler of ESPN. However, we prefer to sit him if you

   have a decent pivot.

MARKETS

We Missed You Austin

🫡 Welcome back, Austin Ekeler. Ekeler will have a full workload against the Cowboys: "Yes, I think that's fair say. We'll trust what we see on game day, but we expect him to go”, per HC Staley. Twitter docs expect an 85% Ekeler from a fantasy points standpoint.

🏦 Stash Vikings WR Brandon Powell. “After Justin Jefferson left last week’s game with an injury, Powell’s sixteen routes (89% route participation) were right behind KJ Osborn and Jordan Addison’s twenty. Working both out wide and from the slot, he then led the team in targets (5), receptions (3), receiving yards and air yards”, per John Laghezza of The Athletic. Especially notable after Jordan Addison (ankle) was limited in practice this week.

👀 Monitor the Vikings RB room. Cam Akers (21 snaps, 7 opportunities) is closing in on Alexander Mattison (37 snaps, 11 opportunities), who has struggled with drops, fumbles and inefficiency.

📉 We’re dropping JuJu Smith-Schuster. There’s zero indication that his productivity improves. And as Pats fans know, he’s playing on the lowest scoring offense in the league.

🔥 We’re buying Gabe Davis. He’s been surprisingly consistent, scoring a TD in 4 straight and is the only WR with a red-zone target in every game. In addition to his increased utilization, he’s also averaging 72 YPG, proving to be more than just a weekly boom-or-bust play.

🏦 Stash Marvin Mims, who could see more opportunities if Jerry Jeudy is moved.

QUICK SLANTS

Tough RB Matchups

📖 Read 2023 Week 6 Mismatch Report by Joe Dolan of Fantasy Points. One of the mismatches this week are Lions DL against Buccaneers OL, spelling bad news for Rachaad White.

“The Lions have held each of their five opponents under 100 non-scramble rushing yards this season, and three of their five opponents below 50. The Lions are one of five teams in the NFL giving up less than 1.0 aYBC/A, so if White is going to get it done for fantasy this week, it’s going to have to come via his admittedly excellent volume.”

📖 Read How to watch football like an expert from the comfort of your couch by Ted Nguyen on The Athletic ($).

📖 Read How the new fair catch rule changes the strategy on applying penalties to two-point conversions by John McClain of NBC Sports.

🎙️Listen to Practices that will make you a better fantasy GM and NFL fan by Matt Waldman and Adam Harstad for the RSP Cast.

📽️ Justin Herbert has a brother 👇

Best Bets

🥇Zay Flowers over 55.5 receiving yards.

He’s gone over this number 4 out of 5 games and is the clear WR1 for Baltimore, accounting for 40% of Baltimore’s air yards with an average target distance of 15.8 yards. He has a smash matchup against a weak Tennessee secondary.

🥈Jerome Ford under 37.5 rushing yards.

Ford hasn’t hit this number since Week 2 and we don’t expect him to hit it against an elite 49ers defense. Ford likely won’t see many rushing opportunities as 49ers opponents are giving their RBs a league low 11.8 carries and Ford is seeing just 37% of the team’s carries.

SPOTLIGHT

Regression to the Mean Team

The below feature is from the @RTMFantasy team of Shaun Moran, Keegan Thompson and Aidan Holler. Their Youtube channel is one of the most underrated in fantasy football.

Target Matthew Stafford. RTM’s favorite place to hunt for positive regression is QB TD %. This season, the top 7/10 leaders in passing yards are also in the top 10 in passing TDs. Except Stafford, who has a career 4.6% TD rate but sits at a measly 2.5%… he’s due for a massive game against the Cardinals

Last week, Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Trenton Irwin all ranked top-10 in open/wide open targets against the Cards, the only team in the NFL with two cornerbacks ranked bottom-10 in PFF coverage grade (@jagibbs_23).

Chris Olave and Deandre Hopkins are alphas. The RTM team sees Air Yards Share and First Read Target Share as a gold mine for predicting future fantasy points. They find an alpha seeing the majority of their team’s passing offense: 40%+ of their teams’ Air Yards along with 30% of their 1st read targets (there are only 14 of these alpha WRs in the NFL):

• Olave and Hopkins both have had at least 4 end zone targets but have just 1 TD combined.

• Neither has a great matchup in Week 6, as both HOU and BAL have been stingy to fantasy WRs, but one could see TD regression.

Hello Joe Mixon. Mixon is an older version of Rachaad White with better PR. Regardless, Mixon has an elite role in a good offense - he sees 100% of the touches in the money zones.

Mixon is the only RB in the league with 100% of his teams carries inside the 5, inside the 10 and inside the 20.

In Week 6, Mixon faces a Seattle rush defense that is tied for 4th in rushing TDs allowed (5) and has allowed 22 FPPG to the position.

Tweet of the Day

Amazing. But Rodger, he’s clearly harvesting wheat.

Good luck in Week 6.

Go get ‘em.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean