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ROOKIE

Bijan Robinson

The best RB prospect since Saquon’s quads were drafted 2nd overall in 2018, Bijan Robinson became the first RB since Saquon to be drafted in the top 10 - despite the decreasing value of the RB position among NFL teams (and Jim Irsay). But could Bijan be better than Saquon?

Despite playing in less games than Saquon, Bijan:

1. Bested Saquon in single-season rushing yard record (1,580 vs Saquon’s 1,496)

2. Was more efficient than Saquon - Bijan averaged a higher college career YPC (6.3 vs Saquon’s 5.7)

Thanks to his combination of elite athleticism (Bijan’s relative athletic score of 9.83 was higher than Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry and CMC), rushing and route running ability, the run-heavy Falcons drafted Bijan and made him the easy 1.01 in rookie drafts and the overall RB1 in dynasty startups.

The best RB prospect in decades drafted to the NFL’s most run-heavy team? Sign us up. Bijan feels like a steal at the end of the first round of fantasy drafts.

What else they're saying:

• Nathan Jahnke of PFF called Bijan a fantasy league-winner. It helps that Bijan “will be running behind some of the best interior linemen in the league. Chris Lindstrom and Matt Hennessy are two of the five interior linemen to earn a 90.0-plus PFF run-blocking grade over the past two seasons.”

• HC Arthur Smith recently praised Bijan for his performance as both a runner and a receiver as "there are a lot of things he can do all over the field" and calling him "a unique athlete"

RISERS 📈 

Circling Wagons in Buffalo

Dalton Kincaid is showing why he was the first TE off the board in the 2023 draft. A standout in camp as a route-runner, Josh Allen has reportedly been consistently targeting Kincaid during every practice - great news for the high-scoring Bills offense. The key takeaways from @AdamLevitan of EstablishtheRun.com make Kincaid a no-brainer at his ADP:

1. Kincaid will be used mainly as a WR 

2. Kincaid will be on the field a ton

🔥 Also in Buffalo, the Bills’ beat reporter Matt Parrino is raving about 2nd year RB James Cook. He is “unguardable” in one-on-one’s, has a strong presence in the pass game and is working primarily with the first team offence. This comes after OC Ken Dorsey said Cook has three-down back potential. With RB Nyheim Hines expected to miss 2023 and Cook’s only real competition being Damien Harris, there is a non-zero chance James Cook becomes the clear RB1 in Buffalo.

New Browns WR Elijah Moore was the most targeted player all mini-camp and has been making highlight reel plays non-stop (video). Finally playing with a QB not named Zach Wilson, Moore has no excuse to not achieve his full potential and build on the flashes he showed in his rookie campaign. Remember: Moore’s 1.95 YPRR from out wide as a rookie ranked 23rd overall and 3rd among rookies, behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle.

Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks is hoping for some catchable balls. His last two seasons included QBs Davis Mills, Kyle Allen, Jeff Driskel and Tyrod Taylor. Dak Prescott had the third highest accurate throw rate last year (65.5%), putting Cooks is in an ideal situation in the WR2 spot on a team that scored the 4th most points per game last season.

All aboard the Anthony Richardson hype train. Richardson took all first team reps in the Colts latest practice, coaches are impressed with how fast he’s picking things up, and teammates say it’s “demoralizing” practicing against him. Richardson will battle Gardner Minshew in training camp, but is expected to gain the starting role quickly. He’s obviously the top pick to be this year’s Justin Fields.

FALLERS 📉 

Not Thinking RBs

Jonathan Taylor formally requested a trade from the Colts days after his agent blasted owner Jim Irsay on Twitter. Taylor remains on the PUP list in camp but Irsay insists they aren’t trading him. He’s extremely risk at a round 2 ADP given the ongoing situation.

Speaking of frustrated RBs, Josh Jacobs situation looks worse. Jacobs hasn’t signed the 1-year franchise tender with the Raiders, was spotted on a flight leaving Las Vegas, and has reportedly told people close to him he doesn’t plan on returning anytime soon. We surely won’t see another 2018 Le’Veon Bell holdout right? Right?

Patriots TE Hunter Henry is “clearly” QB Mac Jones’s favorite target in camp. This isn’t great for newly acquired Mike Gesicki, who has had a much slower start to camp and allegedly didn’t even have a catch in full team drills as of a couple days ago. Gesicki is currently going higher than Henry in drafts. Let’s fix this.

Ezekiel Elliott visited the Patriots over the weekend. It was reported that Zeke’s in great shape (stop me if you’ve heard that before) and that the two sides were discussing a contract. We love Rhamondre (you know we do), but between this and the Patriots showing interest in Leonard Fournette, we should taper expectations on volume for Rhamondre in 2023. But at his current ADP, this risk feels baked in.

QUOTES

Jim Irsay Speaks His Mind

“If I die tonight and Jonathan Taylor is out of the league, no one’s gonna miss us. The league goes on. We know that. The National Football (League) rolls on. It doesn’t matter who comes and who goes, and it’s a privilege to be a part of it.” - Colts owner Jim Irsay

“F*** it, hire Jeff Saturday” - Colts owner Jim Irsay (probably) prior to phoning a high-school football coach and asking him to coach the Indianapolis Colts for the remainder of the 2022 season.

DYNASTY

Ye Olde RB

Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points explains when you should move on from your stud fantasy player in this legendary article: Age Curves: When NFL Players Break Out and Fall Off. A few highlights:

The storied RB class of 2017 is entering Year 7, the first season in which RB production dips below the career baseline. Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, and Dalvin Cook; it’s a long list of players with real risk of turning in a mediocre season by their standards – drafting Ekeler and McCaffrey comes with a massive potential opportunity cost of missing out on a Round 1 WR.

His other biggest takeaway: Hammer RBs entering Year 2. The sophomore season represents the largest upswing in average production and the most common breakout year for RBs. Ryan is especially keen on Breece Hall, who was absurdly hyper-efficient as a rookie and was on his way to taking over 66.4% of the backfield’s XFP in Weeks 3-6 (just pray the Jets don’t sign Dalvin Cook). And don’t forget about the other sophomore RBs, like Dameon Pierce and Kenneth Walker.

For dynasty leagues, RBs who fail to break out after two years should be sold – particularly if they can be flipped for anything resembling top-12 RB prices. History shows these players are unlikely to provide multiple top-end seasons.

As for rankings, Jake Ciely’s dynasty rankings are now available with The Athletic - interesting to see how low he is on CMC.

QUICK SLANTS

Extra Effort

📖 Read Dynasty, in Theory: Two Rules for Rookie Drafts by Adam Hardstad of Football Guys. The article offers insights and takeaways into the strategic and structural nature of the game. Rule #1: Draft For Talent, Trade For Need.

📖 Read Fantasy Football's Breakout WRs For 2023 by Dwain McFarland of FantasyLife. Snippet: Christian Watson battled injuries early in 2022, but once he took on a full-time role in Week 10, his average target share was 23%, and he averaged a WR1-worthy 17.2 PPR PPG. Watson doesn’t have the same draft pedigree as Wilson, Olave, or London, but his 77.8 PFF receiving grade and 2.26 YPRR as a rookie point to similar upside.

🎙️Listen to Evan Silva’s Top-150 Rankings Changes + News Reactions -- Where Should Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs Be Drafted? by EstablishtheRun.

🎙️ Listen to The Playcallers, a show about the rise, evolution, and clashes of the NFL’s youngest coaching tree…through the voices of those inside it. It is a new narrative podcast series that takes a look at the inside dynamics of the NFL’s Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay coaching tree.

That's a wrap for today. Let us know what you thought of today’s edition below. And follow us on Twitter to see everything that didn’t make it in the newsletter @MorningHuddleUp.

Tweet of the Day

Bro saw a few days of Kenny Pickett and said I’m out…