Good morning. Where has the time gone? It feels like just last week we were kicking off the 2023 season with confidence, a healthy roster and hope.

Good news to start your day: After his horrific on-field collapse, Damar Hamlin’s life was saved in January by Bills training staff and medical personnel. This summer, Damar paid it forward by launching a multi-city CPR/AED tour, distributing AEDs to local youth football teams and community groups.

RANKINGS

Justice Hill and Gus Edwards shoot up to RB34 and 38, respectively, following J.K. Dobbins’ season-ending achilles tear. We’re giving a slight edge to Hill — who out-snapped Edwards 19 to 15 and received all the red zone and goal line work.

De’Von Achane dropped to RB50 after being a healthy scratch in Week 1. This was likely due to Achane missing a considerable amount of the preseason with a shoulder injury. While he has game-breaking upside, Achane SZN is on hold.

Joshua Kelley moved to RB52 after reports suggested Austin Ekeler is dealing with a high-ankle injury. Ekeler’s ankle is “swollen and sore” and the avg missed time for RBs with this injury is ~3 weeks, per Jeff Meuller. Kelley would see increased volume if Ekeler misses time or is limited. He was our #1 RB waiver priority in Monday morning’s newsletter.

D.J. Moore dropped to WR27 after a miserable Wk1 showing by the Bears offense. Moore was targeted only twice out of Justin Fields’ 37 attempts in Chicago’s 38-20 loss. Convince me D.J. Moore is not cursed. Try.

STORY

Grass or Turf?

After Aaron Rodgers went down, some of his former teammates tweeted at the NFL to change the artificial turf to real grass. Randall Cobb said the NFL cares less about player safety and more about money.

Jets coach Robert Saleh said that he knows “the players prefer grass”, per The Athletic. It’s notable that MetLife Stadium (Jets & Giants field) used grass for a soccer match this summer, and Lionel Messi has every stadium he’s playing at to switch to grass, per @DrJesseMorse.

A 2019 study published in the American Journal of Sports Medicine found “playing on artificial turf increases the risk of lower-body injury” and that “field surface has a causal effect on injury rates due to synthetic turf’s lack of ability to release an athlete’s shoe.”

But the NFL claims that it found a “statistically insignificant” difference between injuries on turf versus natural grass surfaces during 2021, citing data acquired through a health technology company, per The Athletic. When asked for the data behind the claim, the league declined to provide it.

But if you look at the chart David Bakhtiari posted, it’s obvious that 2021 was an outlier:

Many players believe that the less forgiving turf leads to serious injuries, and that owners are motivated by money because turf reduces long-term maintenance costs. While the above chart is difficult to understand fully, it’s clear IR rates are higher on synthetic.

Doctors Weigh In

@DrJesseMorse noted that grass will give with cleats, while the energy doesn’t displace similarly in turf. Turf’s lack of flexibility “likely leads to small micro traumas that build up over time, putting additional pressure on the muscle tissue. If the force is stronger than the tissue can handle, it tears.”

In the case of Aaron Rodgers, “the force displaced through his leg into his cleat was ‘stuck’ in the turf, and since turf isn’t designed to tear, that energy then translated to the tissue, and the weakest link broke”, per @DrJesseMorse.

This is particularly notable because Rodgers had strained both his calves during the preseason, and the calf can help reduce stress/strain on the Achilles’ tendon. If there’s a calf strain, more stress is applied to the Achilles, leaving it susceptible to a rupture, per @jmthrivept.

But @BrianSuttererMD did not think turf impacted the injury, noting that Rodgers’ ankle was anchored in dorsiflexion (complicated way to say a flexed position, like when you flex your toes up). “There was nowhere for the foot to go even if the ground were slippery”.

TLDR: Why not take every possible measure to protect players? Team Grass.

Regardless, the contribution of pre-existing calf injuries is particularly notable for players with calf strains… such as Joe Burrow.

MARKETS

Believing in Breece

📈 Breece Hall is so back. In his first game, Hall turned 11 touches into 147 scrimmage yards. His workload will increase when the Jets do everything to limit Zach Wilson’s impact. As mentioned in Friday’s newsletter, Breece Hall fit all the characteristics of an elite athlete to bounce back post-ACL (think Adrian Peterson level). Love to see it.

📉 We’re selling high on Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier scored two TDs and handled 82% of the rushing attempts - but both TDs came in the close-out 4th quarter (per Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life). Allgeier may outperform his low ADP, but the Falcons should be playing catch-up more often (meaning more Bijan).

📈 We’re excited about Anthony Richardson. Richardson’s 21.9 FP put him QB4 in Wk1. He ran 10 times for 40 yards and a TD, six of those rushes being designed run plays (& he saw 2/3 Colts carries inside the 5-yard line). Richardson was serviceable as a passer, completing 65% of his throws on 37 passing attempts while the Colts were 1st in neutral situation pace in W1 (@adamlevitan).

📈 We’re loving Christian McCaffrey. Last season, Elijah Mitchell hurt CMC’s FPPG:

• In six games with Mitchell, CMC saw 35% of rushing attempts and scored 16.7 FPPG.

• In six games without Mitchell, CMC saw 59% of rushing attempts (24.9 fantasy PPG).

In Week 1, CMC saw 69% of rushing attempts and 25.9 points; the split with Mitchell is a thing of the past. McCaffrey saw 88% of the snaps in Wk1, the highest of any RB, per @AlexCaruso.

📈 We’re starting Kenneth Walker. Walker finished 3rd in the NFL in RB Carry Share (67%). He was efficient with his 12 carries, averaging 5.33 YPC and finishing RB6 in missed tackles forced per touch (ahead of Bijan Robinson), per FantasyPtsData.

📉 We were wrong about Cam Akers. “Cam Akers ran the ball over 20 times, scored a touchdown and still didn't finish among the top-32 PPR fantasy running backs” (@pff_natejahnke). Kyren Williams out-touched Akers 14 to 11 until the Rams took a 24-13 lead, after which Akers was hammered into stacked boxes on the final two drives (which excuses some of his ineffectiveness).

DEEP DIVES

Next Kyren Williams?

Pickup players the week before everyone wants to add them. Last week, the perfect deep dives were Puka Nacua and Kendrick Bourne.

This week's deep dives (ESPN ownership %):

Tyjae Spears (11.7%): The RB2 in Tennessee has a larger role than anticipated. Spears was the clear-cut 3rd down back on Sunday (playing every 3rd down), who also out-snapped King Henry 34 to 30. While that’s unlikely to continue, Spears’ receiving work and handcuff upside make him a must-stash.

Rashid Shaheed (2.1%): Five receptions for 89 yards and 1 TD would make most WRs a popular waiver wire add. But Shaheed could slip through the cracks. He earned an 18% target share and had the 4th best fantasy points per route run in Week 1 and is the Saints’ best deep threat. He clearly has the confidence of Derek Carr, who called his game winning deep shot.

Hayden Hurst (4.9%): A player like Hurst leading his team in targets (7), receptions (5), receiving yards (41), and TDs (1) is as promising as you can find on the waiver wire at TE. Hurst was Bryce Young’s security blanket on a team with a weak WR corps that will be throwing from behind often.

And no one is talking about Calvin Austin III, the Steelers sophomore WR who played 56% of the snaps in Week 1 and saw six targets. Austin tied Ja’Marr Chase with the 2nd most forced missed tackles in Week 1 (3), per FantasyPoints Data and should see a massive upgrade in snaps as long as Diontae Johnson is out, per @ZKantzFF. Johnson is expected to be sidelined “a few weeks” due to the hamstring injury he suffered Sunday vs. the 49ers, per Schefty. Add Austin everywhere available.

QUICK SLANTS

What Could Have Been

📖 Read the Sheesh Report by Ian Hartitz of Fantasy Life. Ian covers what could have been: players who were stopped at the one yard line, plays negated by penalties, missed open throws, etc.

Why Luke Musgrave should have had a huge day: “First, Love missed a wide-open Musgrave for what had a chance at going for 56 yards and a score due to the busted coverage at hand.

Next, Musgrave (again) benefited from being left all alone in the secondary, this time corralling the high throw — but falling down untouched inside the 5-yard line instead of, you know, scoring the wide-open TD.”

📖 Read Dynasty Heuristics, simple rules of thumb to help you win your league, by Adam Harstad. Two nuggets:

“Buy injured is probably the simplest heuristic and the first one I was known for. Again, the underlying concept has nuance. (It's really more like "buy injured players when offered a disproportionate discount to do so", but that doesn't fit on a bumper sticker.)”

“Situation changes faster than talent. Good players drafted into bad situations still find a way to shine. The path to relevance might not be clear ex ante, but life… finds a way. When AJ Brown was drafted, Corey Davis was a future star and Tennessee was one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL.”

📖 Read the Utilization Report by Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life. Dwain on why Elijah Moore is a great buy low:

“The Bengals… [allowed] Cleveland to rest most of their skill position starters in the fourth quarter. Once we remove the final quarter of play, Moore saw a 27% target share*.

*for context, Cooper Kupp led the NFL in target share at 29.9% in 2022.

🎙️Listen to the 15 Transactions for Week 2 episode of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. JJ discussed if Drake London owners are screwed:

"I don’t think that things can get much worse… Atlanta gets Green Bay [Week 2], which is not a great matchup… but at least Week 3 and Week 4 feature two opponents where the game script could easily favor Drake London. He’s a hold right now, it’s going to take some patience.”

🎙️Listen to Week 1 Overreactions and Panic by Dave Kluge, Alfredo Brown and Joey Wright of Footballguys.

On Tee Higgins and the Bengals: "He saw eight targets. I repeat, he saw eight targets. You want to chase the usage and the usage is there… I’m not going to overreact. We have a 3 year sample of Joe Burrow playing at an elite level supporting a high powered offense. If there’s any opportunity to buy low, I’m buying low.”

Watch

Monday at Metlife

Monday’s Bills vs Jets game was unforgettable (and it was the most-watched game in the history of ESPN Monday Night Football). The debut of Aaron Rodgers as a Jet, the devastating injury, Breece Halls’ return, Zach Wilson being himself, Garrett Wilson’s catch and a comeback to remember.

Inside the NFL brings us through the rollercoaster of emotions that the NY Jets experienced in the video below 👇

Creator of the Day

Alex Caruso

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) released the first episode of ‘The Fresh Fantasy Podcast’ in July of 2020. Since, Alex recorded over 225 episodes, curating important information from fantasy experts - he’s also grown to almost 100,000 followers. And for good reason: Alex shares excellent, researched threads, like this one focused on the biggest takeaways from Week 1.

As part of the 33rd Team Podcast Network, Alex and Ben Wolbransky host the ‘5th Down Fantasy Podcast’ discussing coverages, matchups, start sits, players to highlight, etc., in a 30-minute show packed with data.

League Winners

Alex and Ben had an epic TEN 2023 League Winners episode predicting the players on most fantasy football championship rosters (with Chris Olave and Calvin Ridley as targets). After Week 1, Alex had key takeaways:

Rachaad White’s new QB Baker Mayfield targets RBs (Baker led the NFL in RB target share at 29%) and White led last year’s draft class in PFF receiving grade. He can catch passes and should see more targets.

In Wk1, White played on 79% of the Bucs RB snaps and saw 70% of the RB Routes. He was inefficient with his 19 touches but the volume was there. Buy low candidate.

Jordan Addison is still behind KJ Osborne, playing on just 66% of the passing downs (Osborn at 94%). But Kirk Cousin preferred Addison:

• Osborn’s targets per route: 13%

• Addison’s targets per route: 19%

Expect Addison’s role to expand each week. Buy prior to then.

Listen to Alex’s 5th Down Fantasy Podcast, The Fresh Fantasy Podcast, and keep an eye out for Alex’s weekly takeaway threads.

Tweet of the Year

The greatest of 2023.

Before we go, be sure to send well wishes to football fans in New York. After the Giants got curb-stomped 40-0 and Aaron Rodgers tore his achilles 4 plays in, we hope their fantasy teams at least have a chance this season 🙏 

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