Good morning. They say learn from your mistakes, but did they ever see Darren Waller fall to the 8th and Elijah Moore drop to the 9th?

Yes, Alvin Kamara is suspended for three games for knocking someone’s lights out in Las Vegas. But Kamara got a new trainer, fixed a muscle asymmetry in his legs and learned how to control his heart rate to combat fatigue. Per Saints beat writer Nick Underhill, Kamara looks more explosive and the Saints have the data to prove it.

Before last season, Kamara was arguably the most efficient fantasy RB ever. And now he’s back 👀 . Let’s get into it!

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STORY

Josh Jacobs Demands The Bag

In March, the Raiders used their 2023 franchise tag on Josh Jacobs. It’s now August, and the Pro Bowl RB has no intention to play under the $10.09 million tender. The day before the Raiders were scheduled to report for training camp, Jacobs was spotted boarding a flight departing Las Vegas. And since he is not under contract, Jacobs cannot be fined for any missed off-season practices.

Intent on keeping Jacobs, the Raiders reportedly offered him $12 million/year. The 25-year-old RB declined.

Jacobs told people close to him that he doesn't have any plans to report to the Raiders anytime soon.

Rumors have since emerged that the team could rescind the franchise tender, something that has happened only three times in the past 20 years. If they rescind, Jacobs becomes a free agent and the Raiders free $10 million of salary cap. Losing Jacobs for nothing is the worst case scenario for the Raiders (and Davante Adams), who have Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah splitting reps in Jacobs’ absence.

But with the sides not close on a long-term deal, a trade may be the most likely outcome. NBC’s Mike Florio reports the Chiefs and Broncos are among the teams interested in trading for Jacobs.

Remember: this happened because the Raiders declined Jacobs' fifth-year option ($8 million/season) prior to last season, which pushed him into free agency a year early. You can’t blame Jacobs for wanting to give a 🖕to management by not signing the franchise tag.

What is the franchise tag?

The franchise tag is a tool that NFL teams use to retain an upcoming unrestricted free agent. Teams do not have to use the franchise tag and can only designate one player per season.

The franchise tag was first introduced in 1993 when free agency, a salary cap and franchise tags were all created through a collective bargaining agreement between the Players Association and NFL owners.

Designed to be used primarily on quarterbacks and viewed as a mutually beneficial deal between owners and players, the franchise tag has since expanded and the rules have changed.

Each franchise player must be offered a one-year contract for an amount no less than the average of the top five cap hits at the player's position for the previous five years applied to the current salary cap, or 120 percent of the player's previous year's salary, whichever is greater. There are exclusive and non-exclusive franchise tags.

A player can be franchise tagged for consecutive seasons, but the tag gets more expensive with each consecutive season, as a player is guaranteed at least 120 percent of his first franchise tag in year two.

The tag is unpopular. Stars hoping to secure a long-term contract are restricted in their negotiations, as players don’t have an official way to refuse. Some players resorted to holding out during training camp and extending that into the season.

The most notorious was Le’Veon Bell. After looking for a big deal from the Steelers in 2018, Pittsburgh tagged him and Bell refused to play without a long-term contract. He sat out the entire season, getting the four-year contract he was looking for from the Jets in 2019.

And many forget that after being tagged by the Packers in 2022, Davante Adams threatened to sit out unless he received an extension or was traded. Adams was subsequently dealt to Las Vegas, where he’s now unhappy without Josh Jacobs.

MARKETS

Chubb Finally an RB1?

📈 We’re drafting Nick Chubb earlier. Kareem Hunt is no longer stealing 40% of snaps and RBs coach Stump Mitchell said "It's an opportunity for Chubb to perhaps gain 1,000 receiving yards.” Despite never gaining more than 300 receiving yards/season, Chubb has been a top-20 RB in PPR every season of his career. One of the best pure rushers of all time with more passing game involvement? Sign us up.

📈 We’re drafting Joe Mixon above ADP. Mixon’s ADP has fallen to the end of the 3rd. Given his expected volume and the high-powered Bengals offense (Bengals were 7th in points per game and 7th in redzone trips), Mixon provides the cheapest way to get exposure. While not as talented as Chubb, Mixon’s role makes him a value at ADP.

📉 We’re worried about Breece Hall. Coming off an ACL tear, already on the PUP list and rumblings of a Dalvin Cook signing: too many concerns with Hall. Since 2010, 34 RBs have come back the season following an ACL tear and only four reached 85% of their previous year FPPG. Not great odds. He is currently being drafted over RBs like Joe Mixon and others without major injury concerns.

📈 We’re taking fliers on Lions rookie TE Sam LaPorta. The “most talented TE on the roster“ has consistently played with the starters, passing every eye test. LaPorta accounted for 35% of Iowa’s receiving yards last year and has reportedly caught everything in his vicinity in training camp. Rookie TEs tend to struggle, but LaPorta’s ADP of 203 means he is risk-free.

📉 We’re selling George Kittle where we can. In 8 games with the 49ers top playmakers healthy, Kittle was 4th on the team in targets. He also only had three games with 6+ receptions, two of them coming with Jimmy G. This makes Kittle’s weekly consistently a huge question mark.

Now 30 years old, Kittle hasn’t played a full season in over four years. Let someone else draft him as TE4. We’d rather take Darren Waller in a wide-open Giants offense.

Depth Charts

Zay Flowers Alert

The undersized and underrated Zay Flowers is making noise in Ravens camp. A small WR (built like a writer of this newsletter at 5'9" 182 lbs) Flowers is impressing early. The 22nd overall pick has reportedly been "near impossible" to cover man-to-man and is lining up at all 3 receiver positions.

Prior to the draft, "Big Play Zay" drew comps to Antonio Brown for his elite change of direction (96th percentile, per player-tracking data). With Rashod Bateman (always) injured and a 30-year-old OBJ coming off a second ACL tear, it's easy to see a pathway to success for Flowers.

The best part? Former Ravens OC Greg Roman and his stone-age offense are gone. Over the last 4 seasons combined, the Ravens had the most run-heavy offense in the league and the 3rd slowest pace of play.

In comes new OC Todd Monken, known for an up-tempo, pass-heavy attack. Per PFF, Monken's 2016-2018 Bucs ranked 4th in dropbacks. Perhaps more impressive, Monken even managed to get both OBJ and Jarvis Landry over 1,000 yards with Baker Mayfield as their QB. This scheme change should result in far more opportunities for Baltimore WRs -- especially Zay Flowers.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Re-read Upside Wins Championships by Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett. Reading this article will ensure you understand how the game of fantasy football works on a fundamental level, and thus how to approach the draft like an optimal player:

“In fantasy, low-end RB2 production is borderline worthless. If I'm drafting the TE10 it's based on odds of a top-3 finish. TE7 production doesn't move the needle.” Draft for upside.

📖 Read ETR’s Sleepers and Busts for 2023. One snippet by Justin Herzig: “D’Andre Swift is the exact type of RB I want to avoid in drafts. New to Philadelphia after some rocky years in Detroit, he’s being drafted off his flashiness while ignoring the expected role he’ll play in the Eagles’ offense.”

📖 Read 10 Ways To Decide Your Fantasy Football Draft Order by FantasyLife’s Ian Hartitz. Our favorite is the Fantasy Draft Combine.

1. Flip cup

2. Make a beer pong shot

3. Throw a football through a target

4. Make a corn hole toss

5. Sprint across the finish line

🎙️Listen to The Pokemon Theme Song “Gotta Catch Em All” after former LB Blake Martinez, who retired from the NFL to pursue a career in selling Pokemon Cards, has been banned after he was caught scamming collectors, per The Athletic.

📺️ Watch Inside Training Camp Live, where NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport provided a quick update on the Dalvin Cook situation saying there is still a lot of "mutual interest" between the Jets and Cook and that "it would not be a surprise if [Cook’s signing] ended up happening.”

FYI: We are finalizing 0.5 PPR rankings - a cheat-sheet with positional rankings for your upcoming drafts, with rankings updated for each newsletter.

Just promise that you won’t call your team DAKstreet Boys or Obi-Wan Jakobi. Or Two Gurley’s One Kupp. You’re better than that.

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