Good morning. We miss fantasy football.

Like Joe Flacco in 2023, we’re off the couch and neglecting our families for a few weeks to chase greatness.

We’ll be in your inbox 1x per week — every Monday until the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 25th — covering the fantasy angle for all things NFL offseason. Free agency, trades, the draft, memes, and Jason Kelce’s wrestling career. After that, we go back to our day jobs until August.

👋 Also, hey! I’m Marcus — a lifelong (tortured) Browns fan and avid fantasy football player for 20+ years. I’ll be the lead writer of the newsletter this season, taking over for Jake (who was picked up by The Athletic to write their NFL newsletter).

WINNERS

The New King in Baltimore

1/5 Derrick Henry and the Ravens are a perfect match. Since Lamar Jackson became the starter in 2019, Ravens RBs are averaging a league-high 4.8 yards per carry, per Matthew Berry.

The King has had double-digit rushing TDs in each of his last six seasons and should continue that trend in Baltimore's explosive downhill offense. Keaton Mitchell is sure to have a role as the lightning to Henry’s thunder, but the sheer TD upside alone makes Henry one of the offseason’s biggest winners.

2/5 The Atlanta Falcons offense glowed-up this offseason. With former HC Arthur Smith now in Pittsburgh and Kirk Cousins under center, things are looking bright in the ATL. Over Cousins’ last four seasons in Minnesota, the Vikings ranked Top 5 in yards per game and red zone drives, which should lead to high-value touches for Falcons playmakers…

• In Bijan Robinson’s 12 games with 15-plus touches in his rookie season, he averaged 18.1 fantasy point per game — which would’ve been RB3 on the season (per Matthew Berry).

• New HC Raheem Morris dubbed Kyle Pitts the “Mayor of Atlanta” and described his skillset and role in the offense as limitless

• Despite Atlanta’s questionable coaching and QB play last season, Drake London still finished with more than 1,200 air yards and 905 receiving yards (per ESPN). London is in elite company…

3/5 Gus Edwards is the Chargers RB1, reuniting with Greg Roman and a run-heavy scheme in what could be a massive season. Per Sharp Football Analysis, since Edwards entered the NFL in 2018, there have been 44 running backs with 500 or more rushes. On his 699 runs, Edwards ranks among that group:

• 6th in yards per carry (4.9 YPC)

• 4th in EPA per rush (0.00)

• 1st in success rate (45.1%)

• 12th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (11.6%)

• 1st in the lowest rate of runs that fail to gain yardage (11.4%)

• 1st in the rate of runs to result in a first down or touchdown (29.6%)

• 8th in yards after contact per rush (3.17 yards)

4/5 Saquon Barkley went from the outhouse to the penthouse. Behind a Giants o-line ranked 31st in Run Block Win %, Barkley averaged just 1.24 yards before contact per attempt (33rd in the NFL).

Meanwhile in Philly, the Eagles ranked 1st in Run Block Win %, and D’Andre Swift enjoyed a comfortable 2.21 yards before contact per attempt (8th in the NFL), per Tom Brolley of FantasyPoints and Warren Sharp. Jalen Hurts’ tush pushes could limit Barkley’s TD-upside, but Saquon in the open field is a scary sight.

5/5 Zack Moss “appears to be a strong fit for Zac Taylor’s shotgun-heavy offense in Cincinnati, as he averaged 5.20 yards per carry on carries out of shotgun in 11 personnel.

Only the Colts had more carries from shotgun in 11 personnel than the Bengals last season,” writes Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints. It’s a perfect scheme fit for Moss in Cincy.

6/5 Marquise Brown and his 4.32 speed should find success in KC. While he’s no Tyreek Hill, he’s also light years ahead of MVS or Mecole Hardman. Rashee Rice’s inevitable punishment for street-racing could lead to additional targets.

Honourable mentions:

• C.J. Stroud: He’s already been putting in work with his newest WR Stefon Diggs and should build upon a rookie season where his 18.7 Fantasy PPG ranked QB7.

• Raiders RB Zamir White saw Josh Jacobs walk, only Alexander Mattison added. In his four games as a starter, White had 84 carries, 397 yards, and one touchdown, and nine catches for 60 yards.

LOSERS

Helpless Herbert

Justin Herbert appears doomed. While teams typically build around a star QB, the Chargers are taking a different approach — trading Keenan Allen and letting Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler walk.

Per Matthew Berry, Greg Roman’s offenses have ranked 27th or lower in passing in 8 of his 10 seasons, while Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers ranked 2nd in rush rate and 31st in pass attempts during his time there. There just won’t be enough volume for Herbert to be a top-tier fantasy QB, but we’re watching what they do at the draft’s No. 5 pick (Malik Nabers 👀 ).

Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison saw Kirk Cousins replaced with Sam Darnold, which is never a good thing. Per Ian Hartitz of Fantasy Life, Darnold has been bad during his six professional seasons: “EPA per dropback (63rd among 76 qualified QBs), completion percentage over expected (61st) and passer rating (67th).”

Austin Ekeler “has a clear path to targets in Washington, but he earned just a two-year, $11.4 million deal in free agency. That’s in the same neighborhood as Devin Singletary — not the type of company we are used to seeing Ekeler with for fantasy purposes,” per Jack Miller of Establish The Run. Ekeler averaged a career low 3.5 YPC last season and now compliments Brian Robinson Jr. in the Washington backfield.

Joe Mixon has TD upside in a loaded Texans offense that now includes Stefon Diggs. But as Scott Barrett points out, Joe Mixon isn’t a great fit for OC Bobby Slowik’s wide-zone running scheme — he was 33% worse on zone concept runs compared to man/gap concept runs. Temper expectations.

Tyjae Spears “was electric in his rookie season, posting RB1-worthy marks in missed tackles forced per attempt (26%) and yards after contact (3.2)” per Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life. But then the Titans signed Tony Pollard to a three-year deal, reducing the chances we see any significant volume from Spears in 2024. It’s clear the Titans view him as a complementary back.

Honorable mention: Justin Fields…

POLL

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Ian Hartitz’s Fantasy Football Eclipse Scenarios, where he examines rare occurrences coming in 2024, like the Dolphins having two stud RBs:

“Achane is a consensus top-eight RB in the Fantasy Life rankings, and Mostert’s RB25 ADP is more than reasonable for a guy that just, you know, scored more half-PPR points than any RB not named Christian McCaffrey last season.”

📖 Read Jeff Mueller’s 2024 Injury Breakdown ($), where he offers opinions on RBs like Nick Chubb, De’Von Achane, and others returning from injury.

📖 Sign up for Dianna Russini and (our former writer) Jacob Robinson’s Scoop City, a daily newsletter by The Athletic. You’ll get 24 hours of NFL headlines and in-depth stories condensed into a brief morning read.

🎙️Listen to Free Agency Fallout from JJ Zachariason’s Late Round Podcast. Zachariason is a little more hesitant about Saquon Barkley (9:40) and Josh Jacobs (11:37) than most.

🎙️Listen to 20 Trade Candidates to Revamp Your Dynasty Roster by the FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast. The guys highlight Jaxon Smith-Njigba (35:40) and Jaleel McLaughlin (38:30) as some interesting dynasty buy lows, but are selling David Montgomery (47:19) and D’Andre Swift (48:21).

📺️ Watch Why the 2024 Solar Eclipse is Such a Big Deal from PBS’s Be Smart. It isn’t football-related, but it’s still fascinating stuff.

Tweet of the Day

Enjoy the solar eclipse, but remember to wear eye protection — it’s almost as dangerous as watching Kenny Pickett “highlights.”

We’ll see you next week to learn the top prospects for fantasy football of this year’s draft. Thanks for joining me!

- Marcus