🏈 Playoffs!?

Unexpected: Jaguars are good, young QBs shine. Expected: TEs still suck and Deep Dives is great...

Good morning. Most of you made the playoffs. Some of you only subscribed recently and might’ve missed them. For you, two pieces of good news to start your day:

  1. The Walter Payton man of the year nominations offer a chance to see the human side of football players. If you thought Pat Mahomes couldn't be better - he's been nominated for his work helping kids in the KC community.

  2. Tom Brady was in a great mood despite getting his a** beat by the 49ers. A video was released showing Tom signing footballs and showing love to the 49ers players after the game.

I wish I handled missing the fantasy football playoffs that well. Would’ve kept more friendships.

Today's newsletter has a position-by-position rundown, extra fantasy football content for alpha's and updates from around the league.

QUARTERBACKS

Lawrence Shows Life

Trevor Lawrence showed why he was considered the most promising prospect since Andrew Luck. The QB1 last week, TLaw accounting for 4 TDs while throwing for 368 yards and let the Titans know about it, talking sh*t to them after he kneeled it to win while waving goodbye to their fans. Lawrence is the second highest-graded QB in the league since Week 9, according to PFF.

TLaw vaulted himself as a top 8 QB on the year and is heating up just in time for fantasy playoffs. Temper expectations, as he faces a tough Cowboys D in W15 who have allowed the 2nd fewest passing yards and 6th fewest passing TDs on the season.

  • Jared Goff is good? Goff has gone 5 straight games without a turnover, is 8th in passing yards, 5th in passing TDs and 6th in QBR. That's really good. Goff would be elite if he could run faster than me.

  • Brock Purdy finished with over 21 fantasy points despite throwing for only 185 yards. The rushing TD helped, but don't expect another (2 rushing yards in two games). Purdy can be left on waivers unless you're desperate.

  • Justin Herbert is more than a social media QB. Herby set a career high in pass completions (39) and a season high in passing yards (367). With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams finally healthy, Herbert's weekly QB1 upside is back. Anyone who bought low is laughing.

W14 was a slight improvement from Deshaun Watson's 5 pt fantasy performance in W13, which isn't saying much. Watson was still only QB14 last week and faces a Baltimore defense struggling against the pass. He can remain on benches until further notice.

RUNNING BACKS

Running for Miles

I'll never forgive Miles Sanders for telling us not to draft him this season, or myself for listening. Sanders is currently the only RB in the league with over 1,000 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 5.0+ YPC and zero fumbles. Next week he faces a Bears D that has given up the most rushing TDs on the season. Damn it.

  • Ezekiel Elliott had 8 TD in his last 6 games. He is quietly averaging 16.4 PPR points in that span, putting him in high-end RB2 territory. Pollard gets the headlines and has the breakaway speed, but Zeke isn't going anywhere.

  • Marlon Mack scored his first TD since 2019, taking a pass 66 yards to the house. After Mike Boone was carted off the field, Mack should be first in line behind Latavius Murray. What's had a worse 2022, the Broncos run game or crypto?

  • Last week, we mentioned that Jerick McKinnon was dominating snaps. In W14, McKinnon saw the majority of the work again (57% vs 43%). The pass-catching RB went nuclear, finishing as the RB1 with 134 total yards and 2 TDs.

  • Don't sleep on Isaih Pacheco, who has still been productive and is dominating the carries - including this run to seal the game for the Chiefs. Both are quality plays in this O.

JK Dobbins returned for the first time since W6 and ran to the tune of 120 yards and a TD on 15 carries while on most benches. Post-game, Dobbins said he's not all the way back. We know JK, we saw the tape:

WIDE RECEIVERS

Jeudy Explodes

Jerry Jeudy went off (on the ref, literally) in W14, finishing with 73 yards and 3 TDs on 8 receptions. This was largely due to Courtland Sutton's absence (hamstring). Sutton remains day to day, which would be great for Jeudy - the problem is if Russell Wilson (concussion) sits, Jeudy's QB is the Brett Rypien.

  • Mike Williams picked up right where he left off finishing with 116 yards and a TD. Keenan Allen led the team in targets (14), but Williams finished with almost 20 yards per target last week. Both are now must-starts.

  • Zay Jones has seen double digit targets and caught at least 8 balls in 3/4 games. Jones is eating into Christian Kirk's targets (Kirk has only seen double digit targets 1/4 last games). This is largely due to TLawrence spreading the ball around.

  • In two games with Watson as QB, Donovan Peoples-Jones has been better than Amari Cooper. DPJ: 11 catches and 158 yards vs Cooper: 6 catches and 82 yards. Peoples-Jones remains a strong WR3 play, despite only having 1 receiving TD on the year. Someone say positive regression?

Brandon Aiyuk tied a season low in targets (3) and catches (2) without Jimmy G in W14. He saved his day with a TD and should see a higher target share with Deebo Samuel out for the next few weeks. The 49ers face a Seahawks defense coming off a 30-points against loss to the Carolina Panthers. Aiyuk has 50+ rec. yards in 3 of his 4 career games vs. Sea.

JuJu Smith-Schuster has a top-eight finish in four of his last five games where he was in a route at least 60% of passes -- averaging 19.1 fantasy points in those games.

With his torrid start to 2022 Justin Jefferson has now moved into first in career receiving yards per game. Jefferson needs 465 yards to pass Calvin Johnson for the MOST receiving yards in a single season.

TIGHT END

Still a Dumpster Fire

One of our Deep Dives last week, Chigoziem Okonkwo, finished with 6 catches, 45 yards and a TD. He led the team in receptions and has seen at least 5 targets in 3 straight games.

  • David Njoku is TE7 on the season despite missing 3 games. Njoku is an automatic start when he plays and showed instant chemistry with Watson, catching 7 passes for 59 yards and a TD.

  • Dalton Schultz led the Cowboys in receiving last week with a season high 87 yards on 6 catches. Schultz would've had a bigger day if he didn't have a bad drop in the endzone.

  • Mark Andrews is still TE2 despite letting all of us down. It's been bad.

Deep Dives

The idea is you pick up a player the week before everyone wants to grab them off the waiver wire. This column wins leagues like no other. Last week, the perfect pickup was Chigoziem Okonkwo. This week's players, available in almost every league, worth grabbing:

  • Isaiah Hodgins (4%): In each of his past two games, Hodgins has at least 1 TD, 6 targets and an 80% snap share. If Richie James can't go in W15, Hodgins will be the clear-cut WR2 for the Giants. At this stage, it's a volume game.

  • Tutu Atwell (2%): In Baker Mayfield's first game with the Rams, it was Atwell who led the team in targets (9), which he translated into 5 passes for 50 yards. The Rams run game sucks and Baker wants to win. Atwell has a real shot at the WR1 role if he can continue to build on the early chemistry he showed with Mayfield. In W14, Tutu Atwell led the team w/ a career-high target% (26.5%).

Also, more people should be talking about Chris Moore. He saw 11 targets last week against the Cowboys, catching 10 for 124 yards. If Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks continue to miss time, Moore makes for an intriguing flex play in deeper leagues.

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QUICK SLANTS

  • Tim Jenkins breaks down film of Justin Fields disputing the narrative that Fields is a "one read and go" type of QB.

  • It has been confirmed that Kyler Murray did in fact tear his ACL during Monday night's game. His availability for the start of the 2023 season is also in question.

  • Jeff Wilson Jr did not practice Tuesday, not a good sign for his availability for this Saturday's game. Hopefully you stashed Raheem Mostert.

  • Romeo Doubs is confident he will return to action Monday night against the Rams. Possible Christian Watson's productivity takes a hit. But not betting on it.

Incredibly momentous for football that Mike Leach has passed away. It is no understatement whatsoever to say that Leach fundamentally changed football forever. RIP. This thread pays homage to Leach.

We'll see you Sunday.

Jake Eddie, Matt

Tweet of the Day

Proof Belichick is human.

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