Good morning. Forget that work assignment you were leaving for "tomorrow", it's time for you to learn about this years' rookie RB class of 2023.

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NFL DRAFT SPECIAL

An overview of the 2023 RB class

Mid 1st round: Bijan Robinson

Robinson is a Saquon-esq generational talent.

PFF's top graded college RB since inception, in 2022, he rushed for 1,580 yards with 6.1 YPC and 20 total TDs, earning the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s best college RB.

Robinson's 9.3 missed tackles per game in 2022 is the highest average of any Power 5 RB since 2014 (@ScottBarrettDFB), and he broke off 45 plays of 20+ yards throughout his college career. He was also a productive receiver at Texas and can run routes out of the backfield and the slot – the ideal 3-down back. While Robinson can get fancy at times rather than hitting the hole with force, that’s being nit-picky…there isn’t a hole in his game. He also averaged 17.7 yards per carry in his senior year of high school...

Robinson should be the 1.01 in every Dynasty rookie draft and could be a top-5 fantasy pick depending on landing spot. He's currently favored (+160) to be drafted by the Atlanta Falcons, who hold the 8th overall pick. The Eagles lost Miles Sanders in free agency and could scoop him at No. 10. Or the Bucs at 19? The Chargers at 21? The Vikings at 22? The Cowboys at 26? The Bills at 27? My Bengals at 28?

NFL Comparison: Saquon Barkley

Late 1st / Early 2nd: Jahmyr Gibbs

Gibbs is a big play waiting to happen. With elite quickness and receiving ability, he’s the prototype for a PPR gem at the RB position. Several NFL scouts believe Gibbs will be among “the best” pass catching RB’s in the league, the moment he’s drafted.

According to Dane Brugler’s The Beast, Gibbs lined up in the slot or outside on 26.4% of his passing snaps in 2022 and only dropped one pass on 52 targets. Unfortunately, at only 5’9” and 199 lbs, Gibbs might struggle to receive the every down workload of a reliable fantasy RB, but his elite upside in the receiving game makes him a tantalizing prospect.

Gibbs is being drafted as RB2 in every Dynasty rookie draft. He's currently favored (+550) to be drafted by the Patriots, who hold the 46th overall pick.

NFL Comparison: Jamaal Charles 

2nd round: Zach Charbonnet

Charbonnet is solid. He won’t “wow” anybody with elite athleticism or highlight reel runs, but he’s the opposite of Eddie Lacy, like… Charbonnet is really good at football. He has good size (6’0” 214 lbs), decent speed (4.53 40-yard dash), can catch the ball out of the backfield, and runs with excellent vision and power. While intangibles like pass protection, work ethic, and off-field character won’t help your fantasy team, Charbonnet has those in spades, which should help him see the field early and often in his NFL career.

Zach Charbonnet led the 2023 RB class in the percentage of runs that were deemed positive outcomes (57.4%) and also led the class in Expected Points Added per play at 0.238, per @FootballStock.

NFL Comparison: A.J. Dillon

Best of the Rest

The Other Guys

After the consensus top-3, the rest of this year’s RB class is a bit of a mixed bag. Some could jump up into the back half of the 2nd round, or even fall to the end of Day 3, it really depends on what teams are looking for. 

3rd round: Devon Achane, Texas A&M - Achane might be the most intriguing of this bunch. He can absolutely FLY – he ran a 4.32 40-yard dash and was an All-American sprinter at A&M. Sadly, he’s undersized at 5’8” 188 lbs and likely won’t be an every down back at the next level. Despite this, Achane has the acceleration and receiving chops to carve out a role for himself in the passing game. Keep an eye on him in PPR formats.

• NFL Comp: Chris Johnson in Warrick Dunn’s body

3rd round: Tyjae Spears, Tulane - Only a 3-star recruit with zero Power 5 offers, Spears was incredibly productive as a starter last season, rushing for 1,581 yards and tying for the FBS lead in total touchdowns with 21. Unfortunately, like a lot of players in this draft class, he’s small for the NFL – 5’9” 201 lbs. He doesn’t run with much power and struggles breaking tackles, but he’s explosive and can cut on a dime. Spears profiles as more of a committee back at the next level, but averaging 6.8 YPC in a college career should not be ignored.

• NFL Comp: Chase Edmonds

3rd round: Tank Bigsby, Auburn - As the name would suggest, Bigsby is a Tank – especially compared to the small backs in this class. He’s 5’11” 210 lbs and has a physical, downhill running style. He led Auburn in rushing each of his 3 seasons, collecting a total of 2,903 yards and 25 TDs. Bigbsy’s knock has been his inconsistent vision and indecisiveness when hitting the hole, but Auburn’s o-line ranked 90th, 94th, and 92nd-worst while he was there, so perhaps some better blocking could help him reach his full potential.

• NFL Comp: James Robinson

3rd round: Roschon Johnson, Texas - Backing up Bijan is like hitting after Babe Ruth, but Johnson still made a name for himself as Texas’ #2 RB. At 6’0” 219 lbs, he has the ideal body type and skill set needed to be an every down back. The Senior Bowl’s Jim Nagy has said RB coaches around the NFL have started to “pound the table” for Johnson, citing his overall talent, low mileage, and high character as reasons he could be a better pro than college player. Some, like NBC’s Chris Simms, even have Johnson as the RB3 of this class.

• NFL Comp: Chris Carson

Later Day 3 picks to keep an eye on…

Kendre Miller, TCU - Good size (5’11” 215 lbs), agility, and explosiveness, but is still developing as a pass catcher.

Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh - Elite athlete (his 41” vertical and 10’8” broad jump at his Pro Day would have placed him 1st among RBs at the Combine) and tied Spears for the FBS lead with 21 total TDs, but lacks contact balance and is an unproven receiver.

Zach Evans, Ole Miss - Was the #2 RB in the 2020 recruiting class behind only Bijan and has the athletic profile to be an RB1, but injuries and character concerns leave him as more of a boom-or-bust prospect.

Eric Gray, Oklahoma - Quick feet and a natural receiver out of the backfield, but lacks power and elite top end speed.

DeWayne McBride, UAB - One of the best pure runners in the class (highest YPC in college football in 2022), but only 5 career receptions.

Keaton Mitchell, East Carolina - 2nd to McBride in YPC and is a shifty runner, but he’s only 5’7” and 179 lbs (somehow isn’t the smallest RB on this list…)

Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State - Elusive playmaker who gained 4884 total yards in his 3 seasons at K-State, but he’s only 5’5” and 179 lbs!!

Sean Tucker, Syracuse - A 2021 All-American with excellent vision and burst, but his numbers were down in 2022 and he lacks the wiggle needed to consistently make defenders miss.

CONTENT

Rookie Reads

Reviewing the last 15 years of dynasty league rookie drafts: Why draft picks aren’t as valuable as you may think (The Athletic): "There remains a general decline from 1.01 until reaching 1.07 where there is a substantial jump in hit rate."

PFF's Michael Renner categorizes the 2023 RB draft class into their expected roles (Bell Cows, Space Backs, Power Backs). Jahmyr Gibbs is "as good a prospect in this mold as you’ll see in recent years. With 4.36 speed and incredible hands, the Alabama running back was built to work in space."

Fantasy Life's Ian Hartitz & Chris Allen break down candidates to buy & sell in this dynasty-focused podcast: Why they are selling George Pickens and buying Antonio Gibson.

ESPN's Matt Bowen lists the best prospects at 53 skills. Read the entire article, but the rookie RBs featured:

• Most elusive: Tyjae Spears, who averaged 6.9 yards per carry and finished with 34 evaded tackles, tied for ninth most in the country.

• Best home run speed: Devon Achane's elite speed (fastest 40 - 4.32) makes him a big play threat.

• Underrated: Kenny McIntosh has the traits of an NFL third-down back who can catch, pickup the blitz and contribute as a change-of-pace back.

Dynasty Nerds dedicated an entire page to rookies, which includes a breakdown including physical profile, strengths, weaknesses and an overall summary. 

QUICK SLANTS

• Daniel Snyder agreed to sell the Washington Commanders for $6 billion to Philadelphia 76ers/New Jersey Devils owner Josh Harris. $6 bill!?

• Brock Purdy (elbow) told reporters he avoided Tommy John surgery; there is optimism he'll be throwing in the preseason.

• Sam Howell, the Commanders second-year QB, is expected to take over the starting job in 2023.

• Budda Baker told the team in February he wanted to be traded or receive a new contract to make him the highest-paid safety, per Adam Schefter.

• Odell Beckham said he received no assurances from Lamar Jackson that Jackson would play in Baltimore in 2023.

• The Jets have interest in "making a run" at Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins, per @AlbertBreer.

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Jake, Eddie, & Coach D

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