Good morning. There are a few good things in life: tax refunds, fantasy sports, cold beer on a patio and this wholesome picture of Travis Kelce.

Thankfully, the NFL draft is soon approaching and there's only one piece of content we trust above all else: The Beast by The Athletic's Dane Brugler. It covers every position, offers 401 scouting reports and is 308 pages. It’s the Beast.

AND IT'S LIVE THIS MORNING, accessible with a subscription to The Athletic (yes, it feels like stealing at only $1.99 for the month).

We’re thrilled to welcome Coach D to the team - he’s the author behind our QB section and is a great QB in his own right. The most knowledgeable football mind you haven’t heard of, we’re lucky to have him.

CONTENT

OBJ Signs & Other Fantasy News

Yes, Odell Beckham Jr. reportedly agreed to a deal with the Ravens for $18m for 1 year, per Ian Rapoport. No, it shouldn't matter for your fantasy team. But yes, it makes it more likely Lamar Jackson sticks around.

Listen to JJ Zachariason's podcast that breaks down the highly touted QB draft class with numberFire's Jim Sannes. His model doesn't like Will Levis, comparing him to Carson Wentz. Meanwhile, Anthony Richardson gets the Josh Allen comp. The pod also offers a valuable discussion on how draft capital effects projections.

Read Ryan Heath from Fantasy Points' article detailing which Sophomore WR's to target in dynasty, including Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson. On Jahan Dotson:

Read Christian Williams from FootballGuys' interesting piece about The Archetype of a Top-12 RB. It provides an insightful outlook of the qualities that the prototypical top 12 RB has possessed over the history of fantasy football and how the RB landscape has changed.

• "Year 4 is traditionally the peak of a running back's value."

• "One of the most indicative metrics for top-12 finishes from year-to-year is fantasy points per game. If players meet these thresholds early in their career, they're a safer bet to continue performing (e.g., Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall)."

Mike Clay from ESPN shared the 43 things he learned while doing 2023 fantasy football projections. On Kyle Pitts:

"Falcons TE Kyle Pitts averaged a massive 28% target share last season. That trailed only Mark Andrews for tops among tight ends. Coach Arthur Smith has called the plays for four seasons, and all four of his tight end units had a target share in the 25-29% range. I know last year was rough, but he very much fits the profile of an intriguing post-hype sleeper."

NFL DRAFT SPECIAL

An overview of the 2023 QB class

1. Bryce Young, Alabama

The former top ranked dual-threat quarterback in high school, Young has always been highly ranked. He won the Heisman Trophy as the most outstanding player in college football as a sophomore in 2021, setting an Alabama record with 4,872 yds, 47 TDs, and just 7 INTs.

Young is considered the top QB in this class by many (ESPN’s Matt Miller has him as his top player in the entire draft, regardless of position).

Draft Projection: Top 2 Overall

Pros: There really isn’t a hole in his game – he’s poised, decisive, can make every throw from the pocket, and has the athleticism to evade rushers and make plays off-script.

So why are some questioning Young as a potential first overall pick? He’s small. Like… really small.

Cons: He’s 5’10” and many believe his playing weight at Alabama was as low as 168 lbs – he makes Kyler Murray look huge. Additionally, Young lacks elite arm strength and the scrambling ability of other small QBs, like Murray - only rushing for 185 yds in 2 seasons as a starter.

That's because Bryce Young put up 412 yds and 3 TDs in a win against the best collegiate defense of the past decade (the 2021 Georgia Bulldogs, who set a modern-era record by allowing only 6.9 points per game). He can throw over the middle (his 2022 PFF Heat Map shows he does damage between the hashes) and only had one pass batted down at the line of scrimmage in 2022.

And although the offensive lines for Carolina and Houston leave a lot to be desired (ranked 24th and 22nd, respectively, by PFF last season), Young still has elite fantasy upside – so long as he can stay upright.

NFL Comparison: Drew Brees / Tony Romo

2. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

A former backup to Justin Fields, Stroud burst onto the scene in 2021, throwing for 4,435 yds, 44 TDs, and 6 INTs. Stroud is making a late push to be the #1 pick (he’s currently the betting favourite), with many experts pointing at his last collegiate start – a semi-final loss to Georgia – as his best game on tape.

Draft Projection: Top 5 Overall

Pros: His prototypical size (6’3” 214 lbs) adds a layer of comfort, and Stroud has the accuracy, arm talent, and athleticism necessary to be a franchise QB in today’s NFL.

But Stroud frustrates draft analysts by playing more like a classic drop-back pocket QB, despite his ability to run. In his two years as a starter, he ran for only 88 yds and 0 TDs.

Cons: Stroud fits into the “Jack of all trades, master of none” mold. He’s a solid, well-rounded QB, but doesn’t have the physical traits that jump off the screen, nor the improvisational ability that you would hope to see from someone as athletic as he is.

Some also point to the fact that Stroud has been spoiled with WR talent, including 2022 first round picks Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, projected 2023 first rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and likely 2024 first rounders Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka.

Overall, Stroud has all the tools to be a top QB in the NFL. His playing style doesn’t showcase his physical strengths, but Stroud has shown flashes that he can reach a much higher ceiling. With all the buzz surrounding Stroud potentially going first overall (including Panthers QB Coach Josh McCown challenging him to a game of Horse once he moves to Charlotte), it seems NFL teams are believing in his superstar potential.

NFL Comparison: Joe Burrow, but with more athleticism and less bravado.

3. Will Levis, Kentucky

Like a great pair of jeans, Will Levis (unfortunately, it’s pronounced lev-iss) is well-built and durable. After transferring to Kentucky, Levis opened eyes in 2021 while displaying the raw talent that gets so many analysts excited.

ESPN’s Mel Kiper has been pounding the table for Levis, citing his arm talent, quick release, and toughness as reasons for him to be considered the top QB in the class.

Draft Projection: Early 1st Round

Pros: At 6’4” 229 lbs, Levis has the look of a prototypical NFL QB (the dude is chiseled out of stone). His arm strength is elite (he went viral just from a throwing montage) and he’s displayed great mobility (9 rushing TDs in 2021), especially for his size.

Cons: The guy doesn’t peel bananas and puts mayo in his coffee. Levis was also criticized for his lack of accuracy, poor footwork, and inability to move off his first read. According to PFF, at least 23% of his throws were behind the line of scrimmage in each of the past two seasons, and he’ll be a 24-year-old rookie. Levis failed to live up to high expectations as a Senior in 2022.

Overall, Levis is a talented ball of clay with the potential to be molded into an elite franchise QB with proper coaching. Many experts predict his sheer talent is enough to put him into the top-10, but he could have a rocky start to his career while he learns the nuances of the QB position.

NFL Comparison: Decaf Josh Allen.

4. Anthony Richardson, Florida

Straight out of Madden Create-a-Player, Richardson (nicknamed AR-15) is 6’4” 244 lbs and might be the most athletic quarterback ever to play the position. As a Redshirt Sophomore, Richardson threw for 2,549 yds and 17 TDs, while adding 654 yds and 9 TDs on the ground.

Richardson is built like a linebacker, moves like a running back, and can even backflip. His unofficial comparison against all other players at his position throughout combine history currently sits at a perfect 10/10, per MLive's Kyle Meinke.

Draft Projection: Early 1st Round

Pros: He obliterated the NFL Combine, setting QB records for broad jump (10’9”) and vertical jump (40.5”), while throwing a ball 60 MPH (2nd all-time) and running a 4.43 40-yard dash (4th all-time for QB). Out of all the QBs in this class, his ceiling is the highest (speaking of ceiling – the dude threw a deep ball that hit the ceiling of Florida’s indoor facility at his recent Pro Day).

Cons: While his physical traits make scouts drool, his inconsistencies as a pure passer could hold him back at the next level. He completed only 54.7% of his passes in college and has been heavily criticized for his poor footwork, lack of anticipation, and “hero-ball” play style. Out of all QBs drafted in the last five years, Richardson ranks the worst when it comes to short passes, as only 28.2% of his attempts traveled 1-10 air yards and only 65.6% of those attempts were on target.

Overall, Richardson is the classic boom-or-bust prospect. His freakish athleticism has some analysts, like CBS’s Chris Trapasso, thinking he could even go first overall. He certainly has the dual-threat capability to potentially become a superstar, but he’ll need to make significant strides as a passer to see the field early on.

NFL Comparison: Cam Newton with a stronger arm, but less accuracy

Hendon Hooker, Tennessee

After showing flashes in limited playing time at Virginia Tech, Hooker transferred to Tennessee where he put up gaudy numbers in his two years as a starter.

Perhaps his biggest game last season was when he and the Volunteers knocked off the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide 52-49. Hooker accounted for 441 total yards and 5 TDs in the stunning upset, and launched himself into the Heisman Trophy race.

He takes care of the football, makes big plays from the pocket, and can scramble to pick up yards on the ground.

Draft Projection: 2nd Round

Pros: At 6’3” 217 lbs, Hooker has the size scouts look for and the athleticism to make plays with his legs. Best known for his deep ball, Hooker led college football with 10 completions of 40+ yards last season. He also had the highest passer rating in the nation while under pressure (118.5) and had only 5 turnover worthy plays all season.

Cons: So why isn’t Hooker considered a top-5 pick? Unfortunately, he tore his ACL towards the end of last season and it’s uncertain that he’ll be ready for Week 1. On top of that, he’ll be a 25-year-old rookie – four years older than Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. As for on-field criticism, Tennessee’s simplistic offense has experts worrying the transition to the NFL might be difficult for Hooker, as he rarely had to go through multiple progressions, often only needing to read one side of the field.

Overall, it’s hard to deny Hooker’s talent and production. He’s a polarizing prospect, as former Jets GM and ESPN personality Mike Tannenbaum has him going 5th overall, while Bleacher Report’s Scouting Department sees him as merely a Day 3 flier.

While he might benefit from a year of rehabbing and learning the NFL game, he’s certainly a prospect to keep an eye on going forward.

NFL Comparison: Geno Smith

QUICK SLANTS

• The Browns have no interest in re-signing Kareem Hunt. If he’s not signed before the draft, the Browns don’t get a comp pick.

• The Cincinnati police department announced on Friday that a first-degree misdemeanor charge of aggravated menacing has been refiled against Joe Mixon.

• The Chiefs have agreed to terms with Giants breakout WR Richie James, per Mike Garafolo.

• 5 rookies your friends don’t know but have major upside in fantasy football.

• Reddit users discuss the core strategic difference between dynasty and single-season leagues. Best answer: Instead of being unhealthily obsessed with football during the season, you become unhealthily obsessed with football year round.

Thanks for joining us this morning. And don't forget to check out The Beast if you like nice things and want to know everything about this years’ draft.

Jake, Eddie, & Coach D

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We miss you, Drew.