Good morning. Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and happy holidays to you and yours!!

And congratulations to you. If you're reading this, you've survived a heck of a season. Unless you're Antonio Brown, who bizzarly leaked this DM from Tom Brady (proves Brady is a great person):

AB also shared another previous DM from Tom Brady reaching out to support Brown behind the scenes, per @NFL_DovKleiman. Sucks to see someone fall so far, but just a reminder to be grateful for everything we have in our lives. Like Tom Brady.

The off-season should be a wild one, with Lamar Jackson a FA alongside multiple stud RBs and veteran WRs without guaranteed money:

START & SIT

The case for...

Starting Drake London, whoheadlines Josh Hermsmeyer's Week 16's buy-low candidates after earning almost half the Atlanta Falcons‘ targets and air yards. London had 70-of-97 Falcon receiving yards and has 23 targets over his last two games, while seeing his usage improve drastically; he's averaged an absurd 46 percent target share. London is WR7 in Expected Fantasy Points since W13, ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Starting J.K. Dobbins, who is receiving double-digit carries a game and averaging over 8.8 yards per carry over the past two weeks, per PFF. Dobbins is quietly 1st in PFF grade (86.7) and rushing yards (245). Dobbins faces a Falcons D allowing the 7th most expected points per rush attempt.

Starting D'Andre Swift, who isn't on the injury report. Swift is RB4 when he’s not on the injury report.

Starting Jerick McKinnon, the #1 RB for fantasy since W14. McKinnon has consistently played on passing downs and in short-yardage situations all season and is now also playing half the time on early downs rather than Kansas City using a third back, per PFF's Nathan Jahnke. McKinnon faces the Seahawks, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season.

Starting the other Chiefs RB, Isiah Pacheco in a great spot against the Seahawks second-worst run defense, as Pacheco averaging 15.8 rushing attempts per game since W10, per FantasyLife's Week 6 Rankings.

Starting DJ Moore against the pass-funnel Lions, who allow the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. No team surrenders more passing yards per game to WRs than the Lions, per ProFootballNetwork.

Starting Kenneth Walker, who returned from injury to a full-time role (48 snaps, 31 routes) ahead of Travis Homer (16 snaps, 12 routes), who also fumbled in W15, per ETR. Walker is expected to play this week, but has sat out practices with his ankle injury. Keep an eye on this, especially after the Seahawks elevated two RBs.

Starting Gardner Minshew, who takes over the league’s 2nd-highest scoring offense (29.4 PPG) and averaged 214 yards and 2 TDs in two starts last season for the Eagles, including a game against their Week 16 opponent, Dallas, per PFF.

Sitting Gabe Davis, who has struggled in recent weeks. Since the Bills’ Week 7 bye, Davis is averaging 46 yards per game. His 16.9% target share is outside the top 50 WRs. Davis faces the Bears in what should be a cold and windy game. He's the definition of boom-bust, and has been busting lately. But still, all it takes is one bomb from Josh Allen...

Sitting Hollywood Brown, who will be without Kyler Murray and play with Trace McSorley - if Brown even plays. The only time Trace McSorley threw a touchdown was Week 12 of 2020. That said, Hollywood Brown caught the touchdown...

Deciding what to do with Colts RBs. It's not easy. HC Jeff Saturday said the starting RB will be a game-time decision. Plans to rotate between Deon Jackson and Zack Moss.

And (unrelated) imagine what Trevor Lawrence could do with Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore...

CONTENT

Best Reads of the Day

Darren Waller returned from IR to post a top-eight TE finish. However, he was hardly targeted (9%), and his routes were limited (66%), per PFF. We still don't know Waller's upside with Davante Adams on the field: His 16% TPRR is well below his average of 25% over the last two seasons per the Fantasy Football Utilization Report: Week 16 waiver, trade and drop candidates by Dwain McFarland.

Isaiah Hodgins has led the Giants in Expected Fantasy Points (7.9) per game since Week 13. New York will face a Vikings defense allowing 35.3 half-PPR points per game to WRs — the second most over the last six weeks, per Marvin Elequin's Playoff Analysis. Hodgins is the Giants' red zone threat, accounting for 37.5% of their targets inside the 20.

Joe Mixon played 72% of snaps before his concussion in Week 11. Since his return, that number is down to 61%. His rush attempt share is also down from 73% to 57%. It appears Samaje Perine carved out a larger role while Mixon was out with a concussion. The Bengals' starting running back has only four top-12 performances in 11 healthy games, per the Utilization Report.

Tyler Lockett’s absence opens the door to more playing time for Noah Fant. Fant (130) has doubled Will Dissly’s (63) slot routes this season, and he’s seen notably better usage in the end zone (0.8 end zone targets per game, compared to 0 for Dissly) since Week 10, per Jake Tribbey's Week 16 DFS Values.

PFF's Realistic trade value and landing spots for veteran QBs: Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr and more. Could the Ravens franchise-tag Lamar Jackson and trade him to the Giants and recoups a massive draft pick haul — 2023 first-, 2024 first-, 2025 first-, 2023 second- and 2024 third-round selections?

Fantasy Pros Dynasty Risers & Fallers: Tyler Allgeier is averaging 6.5 yards per carry across the last four weeks and is coming off his best game as a pro. Still being out-snapped by Cordarrelle Patterson, the Falcons should continue to give the talented Allgeier a greater workload.

Allgeier was mic'd up during his career-high 138-yard game that included a TD and a 2-point conversion (video).

James Conner remains a strong play regardless of QB based on his recent run of absurd usage – he’s been on the field for 192 of the Cardinals’ last 204 snaps, per ETR's newsletter.

Difficult to describe how unbelievably stacked the 2023 RB class is. @PFF_Mike ranked the best 10, but even then there's backs who didn't make this list that would have been top-5 RBs in the 2022 class

Rashid Shaheed’s route participation has been climbing for the last three games and was a season-high 95% in Week 15. He delivered a top-16 WR finish on 18.5 fantasy points. Shaheed isn’t a high-end target earner (16% TPRR), but he has a strong ADOT (15.2) and boasts a juicy 2.76 YPRR, per PFF's Fantasy Football Utilization Report by Dwain McFarland.

The 2022 rookie class is having an unreal impact all across the NFL. @_RyanFowler_ breaks down the young stars taking over the league in this article.

QUICK SLANTS

• Inside Kliff Kingsbury dynamic in Arizona, w/ palpable tension with QB1 in the building, a GM w/ far less presence in 2022 and questions from some close to him about whether he walks away.

• Get your tissues ready - watch Ron Rivera tell Commanders players they made the Pro Bowl (video).

• Who is the RB in TB? (Does it matter) Great podcast by FantasyLife.

• Adam Levitan and Evan Silva's analysis on all the Week 15 action and what it means moving forward in their NFC and AFC Team-By-Team Podcasts.

Thanks for joining us this morning, good luck today legends.

Jake, Eddie, & Matt

Tweet of the Day

If you drafted any of these guys, you're a happy camper. And probably still reading this: