Good morning. Since you went to bed, Texans rookie WR Tank Dell rose two rounds in ADP. And for good reason, as Dell looked phenomenal in his preseason debut last night.

In college, Dell accounted for ~40% of his team’s receiving offense two years in a row. Now, he’s putting the Patriots secondary in a blender (video). Even Matthew Berry noted that while it may not be immediate, Tank Dell will be a thing this year.

If you missed the games last night and want a detailed writeup, PFF’s Nathan Jahnke published the best read: Preseason Week 1 Recap: Immediate fantasy football takeaways from Thursday's games.

Two key takeaways:

1. Jordan Addison made multiple highlight-worthy catches and was an impressive member of the Minnesota backups.

2. Rhamondre Stevenson’s role is safe, for now - but the Patriots might be looking. Last night, they rotated three players throughout the first half who combined for six rushing yards on seven carries. Yikes.

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STORY

You’ve Got Rankings

Before we share our inaugural rankings, did you ever hear of the Greater Oakland Professional Pigskin Prognosticators League? No? Of course not. Neither had we.

But we all should know them.

Baseball was the first fantasy sport, and an early version was Strat-O-Matic, where players ordered cards that listed each player’s stats from the prior season. A combination of data on those cards and the rolling of dice determined the outcome of the player’s “at-bat” or turn.

Fantasy football emerged in 1962, when Bill Winkenbach, then part owner of the Oakland Raiders, gathered friends in a New York City hotel to create the first fantasy football league: the Greater Oakland Professional Pigskin Prognosticators League.

Winkenbach has been called "the father of Fantasy sports", but his rosters were as crazy as his league name: they drafted two quarterbacks, four halfbacks, two fullbacks, four wide receivers or tight ends, plus two return men, two kickers (madness!!), two defensive backs or linebackers, and two defensive ends.

Each week, the commissioner would compile the results from newspaper box scores and send them out to the rest of the league. Thankfully, we have the internet.

Fantasy football is now so big that it is estimated to cost American employers $13 billion per year, proven to cost you many “relaxing fall Sundays” and personally cost me a few friends.

Fantasy Rankings

These rankings are twofold - a “tiers” list where you can see where players rank against others in their position, and a printable cheatsheet for you to bring to your draft.

Last year, we had Rhamondre Stevenson and Amon-Ra St. Brown (“Only 10 WRs I'd rather have”) as two must-drafts. But we also had Michael Thomas ahead of Chris Olave, despite saying Thomas “hasn't played in two years & will miss Drew Fabreeze.” So can you really trust us?

This year, we’ve ranked the top 80 RBs, top 80 WRs, 32 QBs and 32 TEs. These rankings are for 1QB leagues, 0.5 PPR scoring and are available all season. We always wanted rankings consistently tweaked to help us draft, trade and win. And now you have someone to blame if things go south.

MARKETS

We Promise No Skyy Puns

📈 We love the upside of Skyy Moore. In addition to being with the 1’s “every rep” of training camp Chiefs OC Matt Nagy* said that Moore will “get more opportunities”, noting Moore always had the talent but he was learning the offense last year. With the departures of Mecole Hardman and Juju Smith-Schuster, and Kadarius “Injured” Toney still hurt, Moore is the favorite to man the slot and lead the team in WR targets this year: John Hansen calls Moore the “the sleeper WR pick of the year.”

*yes, that Matt Nagy.

📉 We’re passing on Jerome Ford. The Browns RB2 pulled his hamstring on Sunday and when asked if he’ll be ready for Week 1, Browns HC Kevan Stefanski told reporters, “I think it’s unfair to say that yet… I’m hopeful, but I can’t go past that.” Ford was assumed to take over some of the Kareem Hunt role but missing time already with an injury that could be 4-6 weeks, he’s unlikely to have a significant role early in the season.

📈 We’re keeping an eye on Dolphins rookie RB Devon Achane. He’s been getting rave reviews from his teammates and is one reason the Dolphins don’t bring in Dalvin Cook. Achane joins Kareem Hunt and James Conner as the only 3rd round RBs with a PFF rushing grade above 90. He won’t be a bellcow for the Dolphins, but he’s likely to get an opportunity for a significant role competing with the 31-year old Raheem “IR“ Mostert and Jeff “Journeyman” Wilson, who left practice Wednesday with a hand injury.

📉 We doubt Slant Boy, Michael Thomas. Entering his age-30 NFL season having missed 40 games over the past three seasons due to hamstring, ankle, and toe injuries, Evan Silva noted (in his excellent 2023 Saints Fantasy Preview) “the repeated lower leg nature of Thomas’ recurring injuries is particularly concerning because his game is built on short-area quickness.”

📉 This could be the end for Marlon Mack. The Cardinals RB was sadly ruled out for the season with an achilles injury. Mack the potential RB2 behind James Conner. Keaontay Ingram is now the favorite for RB2 reps in AZ, which is worth a handcuff stash at best.

📈 We’re high on Brandon Aiyuk as one of the best mid-round targets you can draft. He quietly led the 49ers in receiving yards (1,015) and receptions (78) and finished as WR15 in PPR. This year, Aiyuk is being drafted as the WR28… He’s reportedly made “quick work” of every defender in training camp, while his teammates and coaches are raving about his dominance.

Depth Charts

Rookie of the Day: Jahmyr Gibbs

The best pass-catching RB in this year's class, Jahmyr Gibbs will be a weapon in Detroit. Gibbs was 4th in receiving efficiency among college RBs since 2014 (behind only Christian McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel and Alvin Kamara) and has off-the-charts athleticism: his 4.36 40-yard dash was faster than both McCaffrey and Kamara, and his 39 missed tackles forced last season were more than Bijan Robinson.

Gibbs elite skillset is turning heads in camp - he's carving up the Giants in joint practices and is lining up at WR when David Montgomery plays RB.

Sure, Gibbs will concede goal line work to Montgomery. But the Lions targeted their RBs 6th most in the league last year, giving Gibbs plenty of chances to eat in the passing game. Notably: McCaffrey and Kamara didn't even see 30% of their team's rush attempts as rookies, yet finished as the RB3 and RB9, respectively.

Given his RB14 ADP, grab Gibbs as a high-upside RB2 and don't look back.

More hype:

• “Lions rookie Jahmyr Gibbs is going to take over the NFL.” -Good Morning Football's @PSchrags

• @AlexCaruso's thread about the historical success of RBs drafted in the top-12 highlights why you should buy Gibbs and Bijan

Someone who likes Gibbs more than us? Lions GM Brad Holmes, who went nuts after their pick:

QUICK SLANTS

Aging Like Fine Wine

📖 Read Age Curves: When NFL Players Breakout and Players Falloff by Fantasy Points’ Ryan Heath. Ryan’s excellent article explains that RBs tend to take a big step forward from Year 1 to Year 2. Years 2-6 are peak years, with that peak production largely remaining stagnant. Year 7 provides the first hint of a steep decline toward irrelevancy.

👀 Year 7 RBs: Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, and Dalvin Cook.

📖 Read Dynasty Stock Watch: Risers And Fallers Entering August by FantasyLife’s Sam Wallace.

Sam explains what dynasty managers should do to stay ahead of the curve, including trading for Antonio Gibson. Gibson “enters his fourth season after finishing as a top-13 option twice to begin his career. We know the talent and skill set are there, but the missing piece (opportunity) might finally fall into place this season.”

📖 Read Building the perfect fantasy football league: Ideal scoring and roster formats by Michael Salfino. Most importantly: You want a fantasy format with multiple paths to winning, rather than the team with the No. 1 RB in fantasy guaranteed victory.”

🎙️Listen to Sean Payton say that Javonte Williams is '100% right now'.

☢️ Warning: Guarding Stefon Diggs 1-on-1 may result in getting cooked (video).

Creator of the Day

Graham Barfield

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) had his first article published back in 2014, titled Why you should draft Justin Hunter over Cordarelle Patterson. Graham (correctly) hinted at Patterson’s future as an RB.

While Justin Hunter may have disappointed, Graham has not. He’s since grown into a must-read writer for fantasy football. The man behind Yards Created, which measures all yards generated above and beyond what was blocked (see Saquon’s 2018 profile), Graham’s work can be found on Fantasy Points.

This summer, Graham analyzed over 600,000 Underdog Fantasy teams to find the biggest edges of how to construct the highest scoring BestBall rosters - highly recommend his Roster Construction series.

SuperFlex Leagues

In his most recent article, Graham breaks down his strategy, roster-building tips, and rankings for 2023 Superflex/2QB leagues. One suggestion applies for all leagues:

“Don’t overlook Geno Smith. After finishing as the QB7 in fantasy points per game (18.6) last season, Geno is now priced as QB15. There is plenty of margin for error… and Seattle’s offense projects to maintain their pass-heavy tendencies (9th in early-down pass rate last season).”

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