Good morning. At this time last year, both Dontrell Hilliard and AJ Dillon were top-10 RBs, Josh Jacobs was RB37 and CeeDee Lamb and Tee Higgins were outside the Top-75 WRs. It will get better.

And hey, at least the Giants aren’t on primetime three more times over the next five weeks. Oh sh*t…

Good news to start your day: You can now officially buy low on Drake London and Kyle Pitts for the 2025 season.

RANKINGS

Tua Tagovailoa moves to QB8. In the past 12 games where he did not leave due to injury, Tua is averaging 21.5 FPPG. He had the fourth-most passing yards in a season-opening game in NFL history (466) and was not sacked once in the Dolphins opener.

Najee Harris drops to RB14. @LateRoundQB notes that Harris played only 8 more snaps than Jaylen Warren and was out-targeted (6 to 2) and out-scored (6.8 to 5.3 in PPR) by him. The vibes are bad with Harris.

Roschon Johnson moved to RB46. Rumours of him earning 3rd down usage came true. Johnson had 6 receptions for 35 yards with a rushing TD in his NFL debut.

Deebo Samuel drops to WR22. Aiyuk has been the 49ers WR1 since CMC joined in W7 of last year.

Puka Nacua jumps to WR55 after a Cooper Kupp-esque performance. The rookie from BYU seems to be Kupp’s true replacement — not Van Jefferson — and appears startable while Kupp remains out. Read below for more on Puka.

STORY

Week 1 Waiver Wire

Each week, we detail the must-add players to target. Ownership percentage based on ESPN data.

Brett Whitefield called Puka Nacua (2.3% owned) this year’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, while Derek Brown has Puka as Dollar Store Deebo. Regardless of nickname, everyone’s talking about the Rams rookie WR. In his NFL debut, Puka saw 15 targets, had an elite 40% target share and put up 120 receiving yards.

Just the 2nd player in NFL history to be drafted in the 5th round or later with 100+ receiving yards in his NFL debut, Puka was also elite in college. He was PFF’s highest-graded WR in the FBS and his 2021-2022 3.48 YPRR ranked behind only Jaxon Smith-Nigba, per @ScottBarrettDFB. Puka should remain Stafford's No. 1 target at least until Week 5, giving him the highest upside among available WRs.

Jakobi Meyers (65%) should not be available. If he is, Meyers is the No. 1 priority after leading the Raiders with 10 targets, nine catches, and 81 yards, along with two TDs.

Zay Jones built on an impressive 2022 (823 yards and five TDs) in Week 1, catching five-of-seven targets for 55 yards and a TD. Christian Kirk (one catch on three targets) will have better weeks, but Jones looks like the WR2(B) in Jacksonville.

• Kendrick Bourne caught six of a team-high 11 targets for 64 yards and two TDs in Week 1. No DeVante Parker meant Bourne was the top option. Could be a floor play w/ minimum upside.

• Tutu Atwell saw eight targets and is worth adding in deep PPR leagues.

As for TEs, there are two:

• Hayden Hurst saw a team-high seven targets, leading to five catches, 41 yards, and a TD. Hurst is still worth a speculative add given the TE landscape.

• Zach Ertz saw a team-high six catches (10 targets) for 21 yards. Yards follow opportunity. Typically…

Drop List: Van Jefferson, Deon Jackson, Rondale Moore, any backup D/ST.

RB1: Handcuff RBs

Chargers RB Joshua Kelley (11%) is a must add after posting 91 yards and a TD on 16 touches. The Chargers backfield shared snaps under new OC Kellen Moore in Week 1, which could be a theme moving forward. Remember, Moore distributed touches among two RBs in Dallas with Zeke and Pollard.

With Kelley, you get Ekeler’s top handcuff who could have standalone value. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Ekeler and Kelley combined for a league-high +66 rushing yards over expected in Week 1 and Kelley almost equaled Ekeler in snaps played.

Colts RB Zack Moss (11.2%) After Deon Jackson struggled and lost two fumbles in Week 1, Moss should start and handle the bulk of the carries in Week 2 against the Texans.

Over four games as a starter last year, Moss averaged 17.3 attempts per game for 4.84 yards per attempt (83+ yards per game) and ranked top-10 in yards after contact (with 239), per Kate Magziuk of PFF.

Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier (73%) should not be available but is a priority if so. His 18-touch, 93-yard, two-TD day proved that.

Pump the brakes on Ravens RBs. Yes, J.K. Dobbins achilles tear was confirmed and he will be out for the season. Yes, Justice Hill scored twice. But after Dobbins left the game, Hill (5%) and Gus Edwards (19%) split carries (8 each). This will be a committee. Edwards is more likely to be the lead back and should be prioritized, but neither have league-winning potential.

Kenneth Gainwell (54%) dominated touches in Philadelphia's backfield in Week 1, seeing 14 rushing attempts and catching all four of his targets. We aren’t that high on Kenneth though, as the only guarantee in the Philly backfield is that it will be a headache.

Someone might drop D’Andre Swift. Add him. It doesn’t hurt to take a flier on Swift after the Eagles HC said “I don’t ever want to come out of game where Swift has two touches” via @MBarkannNBCS. Swift’s role will increase. He’s good at football (video).

Rams RB Kyren Williams finished with a team-high 52 rushing yards on 15 carries. Rams beat writer Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic said to keep an eye on the 2022 fifth rounder, who appeared to “be taking on a larger workload this season” and was rotating with Akers. Williams had the 7th highest weighted opportunity score (16.9), per Scott Barrett.

MARKETS

Zay Flowers is Him

📈 Zay Flowers had the 2nd highest target share of all time by a rookie in Week 1 (45.5%), proving to be the Ravens WR1. He also saw a 83% snap share, well above Rashod Bateman (38%). Flowers finished with a team high 9 receptions and 71 yards, while also rushing twice for 9 yards. He looks to be a focal point of the Ravens offense.

📉 We’re dropping Rashaad Penny, who was a healthy scratch on Sunday. While Penny and “healthy” is typically a good thing, this isn’t. Move on.

📉 We’re selling AJ Dillon for a better handcuff. Dillon had just 19 yards on 13 carries in a game the Packers dominated. Starter Aaron Jones did tweak his hamstring during the game, but it isn’t believed to be serious.

Signal or Noise?

Higgins 📉 while Aiyuk 🔥 

Check in on Tee Higgins managers who burned a 2nd or 3rd round pick on the talented WR. While he probably lost you your week, Higgins won’t lose your season. The weather in Cleveland yesterday was a sloppy mess — both teams struggled to move the ball through the air, as Elijah Moore was the game’s leading receiver with just 43 yards. Higgins owners should also take solace in the fact that the stud WR still had 8 targets — 2nd most on the team behind Ja’Marr Chase’s 9. He’ll bounce back.

Meanwhile, Brandon Aiyuk blew up the Steelers secondary to finish as WR2 (32.9 PPR points). We’ve been above consensus on Aiyuk all offseason but this should have been expected. As @fball_insights noted prior to the game, Pittsburgh played man coverage at the 4th-highest rate in the league last year. And last season, Aiyuk feasted on man coverage, ranking 11th in fantasy points per route run (0.63). The matchup was always in favour of Aiyuk. 

Still, as Scott Barrett noted, Aiyuk has led the team in targets, first read target share, yards market share, yards per route run, and receiving yards per game since Week 7 of 2022. While his performances may be matchup dependent, Aiyuk has surpassed Deebo as the Niners’ WR1.

QUICK SLANT

Trouble in Tennesse?

📖 Read JJ Zachariason’s Week 1 Thread with his fantasy football takeaways from Sunday’s action. Two gems:

“Derrick Henry was out-snapped by Tyjae Spears today 33 to 28. Spears ran 7 more routes and out-targeted Henry 4 to 3.”

“Elijah Moore ran 56% of his routes from the slot, per Next Gen Stats, and finished the day tied with Amari Cooper for a team-high 24% target share.”

📖 Read PFF’s NFL Week 1 Recap that covers the immediate takeaways. Why we’re selling Washington’s RB2:

“Antonio Gibson’s carries were on the decline late last season, but this was just the second time in his career he was held to four touches or less in a game. The other was a 2020 game where he played only four offensive snaps.”

📖 Read Pat Mayo’s Week 1 Team Notes, Injuries and Recaps listing key injuries together with a quick recap for each team. Helpful snippet on why you should temper expectations of Romeo Doubs:

“Romeo Doubs gained some steam and a pair of touchdowns certainly isn’t going to slow that momentum. But let’s settle down. The target share was modest at best, big plays weren’t there and Christian Watson was sidelined.“

🎙️Listen to Late Round Perspectives: Ian Hartitz where Hartitz and JJ Zachariason discuss their approach to fantasy football, controversial targets, and offenses that could disappoint this season.

On Tyjae Spears: “I was a little bit iffy on him as a prospect and saw him more as a potential compliment. But what we saw in the preseason… that dude is FAST. He is good. I have bought into Spears.”

Watch

A Day With HC Mike McDaniel

There is more than meets the eye to Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel. McDaniel and Jeff Darlington of ESPN spent a recent morning together -- on a day that started at 2:24 a.m. -- as McDaniel shared the scars that shaped him into the man he is today.

865 is the number of days McDaniel was out of the league after being fired by the Houston Texans. He uses it as motivation and a reminder of how the alcohol problem he overcame almost cost him his dream.

“At the end of life… one thing you wouldn’t want, is regret”

Creator of the Day

Jeff Mueller

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) published his first article years ago, explaining why Joe Mixon > Miles Sanders. He’s since become our go-to injury expert for breaking updates (get it? breaking?). His insights on Cooper Kupp and Breece Hall were HUGE this offseason. He was the first to warn us about Mark Andrews last week.

RBs Post-ACL Tear

Jeff outlined Year 1 outcomes post-ACL tears for RBs in their prime. The theory is, a player with elite athleticism shows signs of “getting back to prior form” faster than non-elite RBs, providing a higher chance of good fantasy production in Y1 return.

Two examples of positive outcomes:

Edgerrin James: Two 4-week spans of 19.57 and 19.35 FPPG, but hampered by partially torn hamstring. Colts probably should not have given him 30-40 touches a game in Y1.

Saquon Barkley: Small sample but by weeks 3-4 he had scored 21.4 and 29.6 points before a fluke left high grade ankle sprain impacted his volume the rest of the season

What does this mean for Breece Hall? Hall fits the mold of being in the 90th percentile of athleticism metrics with the above two RBs. Hall has had zero setbacks, zero scarring concerns, and is ahead of schedule. Jeff projects Hall to be near 100% by Week 5 or 6 at 11 months out from surgery.

Read Jeff’s list of highest injury prone/injury risk players in the 2023 season.

Tweet of the Day

“Oh my god” - Geno Smith after seeing Aaron Darnold

“Oh my god” - Me after starting Isaiah Likely

Before we go, be sure to send your well wishes to J.K. Dobbins, who will be out for the season after tearing his Achilles in yesterday’s game. Still only age 24, Dobbins has dealt with a broken fibula, a torn ACL, LCL, meniscus, hamstring, and now achilles. Just brutal luck for an otherwise promising talent… hope he can bounce back.🙏

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Matt

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