Good morning. Want a quick laugh? Look at my crypto portfolio. Or join the fantasy gods laughing at us after Travis “hasn't missed a game to injury in years” Kelce is expected to miss Week 1.

Andy Reid told reporters that Kelce hyper-extended his knee at practice yesterday. After tests, the Chiefs believe Travis Kelce’s ACL is intact, per Adam Schefter. There is inflammation in his knee, and they will test it again today to determine his availability for Thursday night vs. the Lions.

It would be shocking if Kelce played Thursday night, per @BrianSuttererMD, “It’s concerning that his knee is swollen enough that they have to wait for it to go down. Hyperextensions are some of the hardest injuries to predict recovery time.”

Good news to start your day: Kadarius Toney is “good to go” for Week 1. And the NFL season kicks off tomorrow:

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RANKINGS

RB Sean Tucker moves to RB51 after earning the RB2 role on the Bucs’ latest depth chart. We’ve tried to stay ahead of the pack on Tucker, a better talent than his UDFA status suggests who fell off boards due to a heart condition. Now fully cleared to play, he’s a steady riser.

RB Deon Jackson leapfrogged teammate Evan Hull to RB60. Hull might have better upside, but Jackson should get first crack at this committee in Week 1.

WR D.K. Metcalf fell to WR18. Metcalf is a stud, but we can’t ignore the fact that Tyler Lockett has outscored Metcalf in FPPG in 2022 and 2021 and is available 2-3 rounds later. This change better reflects that reality.

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling moved up to WR68. Travis Kelce is hurt, Kadarius Toney may be limited to start the season, and GM Brett Veach called Rashee Rice and Justyn Ross “package” players — MVS and Skyy Moore should be the top two targets for Patrick Mahomes.

TE Noah Gray added as TE23. The TE position thins out quickly, so Gray is worth a speculative add to see how he might perform during Travis Kelce’s potential absence. If he can give you a couple productive starts, that’s more than you can say about the rest of the TEs in this range.

STORY

Let’s Get Faded

This is the list of the biggest fades, busts and “not my guys” from the top analysts in the industry, with links to their full articles below. It’s not too late to trade them away.

Fading Bijan Robinson? Robinson is ranked top-18, but Evan Silva is fading him at his top-10 ADP. His concerns “stem from Arthur Smith’s willingness to incorporate Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson in a three-man backfield, Atlanta’s extreme run-first philosophy that will curb Robinson’s receiving usage, and 2022 third-round pick Desmond Ridder’s wildcard quarterback play,” per Silva’s Shy Away 30 on Establish the Run ($).

Travis Etienne is overvalued. Etienne was an exciting RB prospect out of Clemson, posting an elite YPC (7.3) and crushing as a receiver, ranking 4th-best in YPT averaged among Power-5 RBs (9.5) since 2014. Yet Etienne ranked just 24th in FPG (12.1) during his rookie season, where we learned his biggest weakness: high-value touches.

“Etienne exceeded three targets in just one game last season as Trevor Lawrence posted the lowest checkdown rate (2.6%) of any QB. Etienne also handled just 44.8% of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line and converted just 2-of-10 attempts for touchdowns from that range. The Jaguars then drafted Tank Bigsby” to fill those voids, per FantasyPoints 2023 Overvalues and Players to Avoid ($).

Tee Higgins hype train should slow down (a little). “Over the last five years, Higgins has suffered three ankle sprains, four hamstring strains, one shoulder sprain and one concussion. The hamstring strains are particularly concerning. Edwin Porras notes that the injury carries a 22.0% year-to-year recurrence rate, though a majority occur within the same season”, per Nic Bodiford of PFF’s 5 players to fade in 2023.

Miles Sanders ranks last in “yards per target and catch rate among all qualified running backs since 2020. He also ranked dead last in PFF's receiving grade last season among 60 RBs with 20+ targets. He hasn't recorded a receiving touchdown since 2019. Yet, Sanders is drafted higher than ever despite a huge downgrade in offensive environment,” per Dalton Del Don’s Draft fades at the RB position on Yahoo!

Mike Evans is someone to avoid. Last year, between the Panthers and Rams, Mayfield struggled with his deep-passing accuracy - where Evans thrives. Mayfield is not a great quarterback. You know, you have eyes.

“The Bucs offensive line is a problem. Sure, they’ll fall behind in the second half and ask Mayfield to bring them back. But defenses will key in on that, coverage schemes will thwart a number of attempts and Evans’ numbers will suffer. With receivers like Jahan Dotson and Tyler Lockett going around the same ADP, I’m fading Evans for the first time in his career", per Howard Bender’s Fantasy Football Fades 2023 for Fantasy Alarm.

DeVonta Smith’s splits without Dallas Goedert are worrisome. With Dallas Goedert healthy in weeks 1-10, Smith averaged 9.7 FPPG, was WR29 and only had one finish better than WR16... After Goedert went down, Smith jumped to 13.3 FPPG and finished WR10. Goedert is healthy yet Smith is still drafted in rounds 2-3. Stats per @NoExpertFF’s great thread.

Evan Engram finished outside the Top 12 TEs in over half of his games played. Before Engram’s 40 point performance in Week 14 (boosting him to TE4 overall) he was TE15 in FPPG Weeks 1-13. The Jaguars added Calvin Ridley. Yet Engram is drafted as a Top-8 TE? Pass. Stats per @NoExpertFF’s great thread.

MARKETS

Sleeper Top-30 WRs

📈 Of all the rookie WRs, Jordan Addison has the biggest role. The departure of Adam Thielen leaves 1,042 routes and 107 targets, 2nd most among WR’s who switched teams. This volume plus playing opposite Justin Jefferson = money in the bank. A rookie WR has finished in the Top 24 in 11 straight seasons and Addison should make it 12.

📈 Skyy Moore’s role could be even bigger than anticipated depending on Kelce’s injury. Toney will reportedly be limited in snaps week 1, leaving Moore as the Chiefs #1 passing option.

The Chiefs game against Detroit is projected to be the highest scoring game of the week, presenting Moore with plenty of potential scoring opportunities. Note that the Lions allowed the 4th most PPG to WRs and the 2nd most yards per game to WRs last season (@BrandonBlancoFF). Fire up Moore.

📉 Per JJ Zachariason's "15 Transactions for Week 1," George Kittle was better than every non-Travis Kelce TE last season in games with Brock Purdy (16.3 FPPG). However, the outcome is misleading because Kittle scored an insane 54% of San Francisco's receiving touchdowns when Purdy took over. Kittle will have spike weeks, but that TD% is unsustainable.

📈 Start Brandon Aiyuk this week. Aiyuk faces the Steelers in Week 1, a defense which played man at the 5th highest rate last year. Per Fantasy Points Data, Aiyuk is much stronger against man coverage, while running-mate Deebo Samuel is the start against zone-heavy teams (@ScottBarrettDFB).

📉 Kyle Pitts isn’t feeling the love. Even Falcons beat writers are down on the guy, who they don’t expect to be any higher than fourth on this team in targets. Yikes.

Depth Charts

Rookie: Jayden Reed

After being named the starting slot receiver for the Packers, WR Jayden Reed is a late round sleeper to keep an eye on. The former Michigan State Spartan has been working with the first team in Green Bay since Day 1 of OTAs and can produce at the next level (Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception has him at a 70.3% success rate vs. man coverage and an 87th percentile success rate vs. press coverage).

While he’s found a home in the slot, Reed only lined up in the slot 20% of the time during his last two seasons at Michigan State, per PFF. He was used as a true No. 1 option, the “X” WR, and could blossom into a similar role in the NFL. With 4.45 speed and big play ability (had 3 punt return TDs in college), Reed has the skills necessary to make the jump.

With Romeo Doubs’ Week 1 status up in the air, Reed could make an impact early. He’s the type of player to be the “most added” prior to Week 2. Stash him on your roster before he’s listed in every Week 2 waiver wire article.

QUICK SLANTS

Waiver Wires: You Matter

📖 Read Dominate the Waiver Wire: Top Five Tips by Samuel Sherman of Establish the Run to brush up on waiver wire strategy.

“At RB, target uncertain backfields aggressively early in the season. James Robinson (Jacksonville), Myles Gaskin (Miami), and Jordan Howard (Chicago) emerged out of nowhere as Week 1 starters, while the market projected volume onto their relatively unheralded backfield mates. This year, I would be looking to make aggressive moves on the waiver wire in uncertain backfields (mainly: New Orleans, Miami, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Chicago) if Week 1 shows an unexpected starter taking the reins.”

📖 Read Fantasy Points Data: Top 10 Stats by Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

“Yards per route run (YPRR) is the GOAT efficiency stat for wide receivers and tight ends. No other efficiency stat really compares to how well YPRR correlates to fantasy points.

Here is how YPRR stacks up against all other efficiency metrics at receiver. This data measures how well each stat (on the left-hand column) correlates with fantasy points (on the right-hand column).”

Your 2022 YPRR leaders?

1. Tyreek Hill (3.20)

2. Justin Jefferson (2.62)

3. Jaylen Waddle (2.59) - only WR drafted outside top-11.

4. A.J. Brown (2.59)

5. Stefon Diggs (2.49)

📖 Read this thread by @notJDaigle on Injuries to be ahead of for waiver bids:

• Doubs = Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave

• Kupp = Van Jefferson, Puka

• Also Kupp = Seahawks D

• Jeudy = Mims (not in my league bro)

• Mark Andrews = Isaiah Likely

• Jeff Wilson = Devon Achane

• JuJu = DeVante Parker

• McLaurin = Curtis Samuel

🎙️Listen to Episode 794 of the Late Round podcast where JJ Zachariason highlights priority transactions to make ahead of Week 1. On the Titans brutal schedule to start the season: Sell Derrick Henry quickly and buy him later. “[The Titans] might be a favorite in only one of their first 6 contests. Negative game scripts will likely impact Henry in some way.”

📺️ Watch the auditions for the third ManningCast. It looks like we'll just have to settle for Peyton and Eli again this season. But it’s all good - the Manning Bros don’t miss.

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