With trade deadlines approaching, go talk to your commissioner about abolishing the deadline (this article explains why).

Good news to start your day: While only one can win NFLPA Community MVP, several players impressed last week:

Pro Bowl FB CJ Ham organized a Halloween experience for patients at Minnesota Children’s Hospital to have a chance to trick or treat, play Halloween games and receive gifts from him and some of his teammates.

Pro Bowl DE Maxx Crosby donated a million dollars to the athletic department of Eastern Michigan to contribute to the growth and development of student-athletes. In turn, EMU will name the football field after Crosby. The school gave Crosby the chance of a lifetime, now he passes that on to others. Legend!

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Dak Prescott rises to QB13. He’s been a top-3 QB in his last 3 games while averaging nearly 27 fantasy points per game. Dak is a strong ROS play with the 5th easiest remaining schedule among QBs, per FantasyPros.

DK Metcalf falls to WR30. His 16.2 yards per reception is a career high, but the volume isn’t there (his 28 receptions rank 49th among WRs, lower than Elijah Moore and Romeo Doubs), per Kate Magdziuk of PFF. With Geno Smith struggling and Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s role expanding, it may be difficult for Metcalf to live up to his preseason ADP of WR16.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

PLAYOFFS?

Moves To Make At QB

Buy high on C.J. Stroud, whose average of 19.6 fantasy points trails only Josh Allen (23.4) and Jalen Hurts (22.8) on the season, per Ian Hartitz of Fantasy Life. In Can The Texans Keep It Up?, Ian explains that Stroud’s emerged as the best pre-draft value at the position:

• +27: Stroud (QB30 ADP, QB3 in points per game)

• +14: Baker Mayfield (QB32, QB18)

• +12: Sam Howell (QB23, QB11)

And with the Texans offensive line improved (8th in Brandon Thorn’s midseason rankings), Texans OC Bobby Slowik cooking and a defense “prone to expose itself to fantasy-friendly back-and-forth shootouts” - Stroud is looking like a potential league winner.

Send offers for Kyler Murray, who NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported is “really engaged” with the Cardinals, after the infamous clause (since removed) requiring him to study game tape. The 26-year old averaged 20+ points in his first three seasons and his fantasy playoff opponents (SF, CHI, PHI) combined to allow 10 QB rushing TDs & 32 passing TDs through the first seven weeks. He “was electric” in practice and gets a “just lost to Josh Dobbs” Falcons in Week 10.

Stash Carson Wentz in superflex leagues. The Rams signed Wentz on Tuesday, but Stafford (thumb) is still expected to return in Week 11. Wentz has upside; in his first two starts of 2022, Wentz averaged 25.7 points and ranked QB4. And don’t forget Stafford was shut down after Week 11 last season, and the Rams are 3-6. Wentz would keep Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp playable if Stafford misses time.

• Will Levis was named as the starting quarterback for the remainder of the season by head coach Mike Vrabel, which matters more for DeAndre Hopkins and the Titans pass-catchers than it does for Levis (for fantasy)

• Jets HC Robert Saleh said the team is not considering promoting Trevor Siemian from the practice squad for Week 10. Saleh’s dedication to Zach Wilson would be funny if it wasn’t so painful.

• Start Brock Purdy, who could pick apart a Jaguars secondary giving up the third-most passing yards in the NFL.

• If Geno Smith can't stop the turnovers, Smith could be replaced by Drew Lock later this season.

Running Back

Move Alvin Kamara. “While not of imminent concern, Kamara saw just 50% of the team routes in Week 9 and produced his lowest PPR total of the season (11 points), after at least 21 touches in every prior game. It is something to monitor with Kendre Miller flashing on a chunk reception and averaging 11.1 yards per target on the season and Jamaal Williams seeing only four fewer snaps than Kamara in Week 9”, per Chad Parsons’ High Leverage Opportunities (Footballguys $).

Buy Bijan Robinson because the Falcons have the best running back schedule over the rest of the season and “in the fantasy playoffs -- Weeks 15 to 17 -- they'll face the Panthers, Colts, and Bears. Those are all currently top-six matchups for RBs in adjusted fantasy points allowed”, per JJ Zachariason’s 15 Transactions newsletter. His valuable passing-game work will bounce back (19 catches Wks 1-4, 9 catches Wks 5-9) because the targets are there. Many Bijan owners are willing to move on.

• Offer for D’Andre Swift, who has a great fantasy playoff schedule (SEA, NYG, ARI) and is still dominating touches in Philly (78% of Eagles RB rushes and 9.5% target share).

• Buy high on Jonathan Taylor, who played a season-high 74% of snaps, received 18 carries and finished second on the Colts with a 19.2% target share. His role is back and he’s a high-end RB1 rest-of-season, per Jack Miller’s Players to Buy and Sell (ETR $).

• Stash Ty Chandler, who will be the Vikings RB2 after Akers’ gruesome injury. “Hopefully, we’ll be able to get Ty [Chandler] more involved and kind of assume a little bit more of kind of that role Cam was assuming” - Vikings HC.

• Alexander Mattison will improve or be replaced. “Mattison has fallen short of his volume-based expectation by 37.6 fantasy points, which ranks worst among all players”, per Scott Barrett’s Everything Report (Fantasy Points).

Wide Receiver

Please just buy Marquise Brown. Across the 9 full games either DeAndre Hopkins or Brown missed (with Kyler at QB), Arizona’s WR1 averaged 20.7 fantasy points (WR10). Brown currently ranks 14th in XFP/G (16.3) but just 30th in FPG (13.4) due to poor QB play. With Murray back under center, Arizona’s offense could lean more pass-heavy; important as Brown possesses fantasy WR1 upside but is priced as a WR3, per Scott Barrett’s Everything Report (Fantasy Points). Playoff schedule: SF, CHI and PHI, two of which are top-five in adjusted points allowed to WRs.

If you've got your eyes on the fantasy playoffs, you might want to sell Amari Cooper. Cleveland will face the CHI, HOU and NYJ. The Jets are the top team against WRs in JJ Zachariason’s adjusted fantasy points allowed, and the Texans are a fringe bottom-10 matchup.

Buy Devonta Smith. Dallas Goedert missed Weeks 11 through 15 last season. During those games, Philly wide receivers averaged a target share per game rate of 76.4%. When Goedert was healthy, that number dropped to 66.2%”, per JJ Zachariason’s 15 Transactions newsletter. Since 2022, Smith averages 15+ more yards per game with Goedert out the lineup.

Hope you bought Justin Jefferson. The Vikings are second in the NFC North behind the Lions (6-2) and while his initial timetable was set at 4-6 weeks, Jefferson’s practice window was reportedly opened this week - he now has 21 days to be activated. A Week 10 return would put him on the early end of a return, but it remains a possibility. Regardless, unlike my hairline, he’ll be back.

• Bleacher Report’s Jordan Schultz reported the Dallas Cowboys have signed Martavis Bryant to their practice squad. Bryant was “behind Jeff Badet and Geronimo Allison in the XFL”. It’s not relevant.

Alfredo Brown watched Demario Douglas tape and said “The Patriots look like they really want to get the ball in his hands: Designed Jet Sweeps, Targets on quick slants early, & Mac Jones looking his way in the final 2-minute drill.” Plus 👇️ 

MARKETS

Raheem Must-Sell?!

📉 Sell Raheem Mostert. Selling a player like Mostert isn’t easy, but now might be the time. Jeff Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed are getting the passing game work, and De’Von Achane will be eligible to return to the team in Week 11. If you can get high-end value for him, do it. Use FantasyCalc’s trade calculator for some inspiration.

👍️ Hold Brandon Aiyuk. The Niners offense has struggled as of late and Deebo Samuel is back at practice, but Aiyuk is still the alpha — he has a 29% target share and a league-leading 49% air yards share this season, per Andrew Erickson of FantasyPros. With the 6th easiest remaining strength of schedule for WRs, Aiyuk is poised for a strong finish.

👀 Justin Fields is sitting. HC Matt Eberflus called him “out”… then Ian Rapoport said he’s unlikely to play. In another Tyson Bagent start, we’re fading DJ Moore.

👀 Monitor James Connor. Conner’s Week 10 status seems slightly more up in the air than Kyler’s. He’ll be a solid RB2 if he does go.

💧 Drop Geno Smith. “He has scored under 15 FP in each of his last 5 games … He has more multi-turnover games (4) than he does multi-touchdown games (3). Through eight games, he has 9 turnovers. He has four games with under 220 passing yards,” per Robert Lorge of Roto Baller.

💩 Be ready for a committee in Chicago. Khalil Herbert (ankle) should return tonight against the Panthers (who are missing significant weapons on defense). The Bears’ RB1 before suffering an injury, Herbert is likely to be sharing a backfield with D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson, for now (Herbert is No. 8 in PFF rushing grade and should regain a bigger role…)

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Why has the Bill Belichick coaching tree produced such imperfect fruit? by Chad Graff of The Athletic.

📖 Read Fantasy Rankings Week 10 ($) by Jake Ciely of the The Athletic. Two key insights:

• Since Week 6 with the split and Dameon Pierce missing last week, Pierce and Devin Singletary are last (43rd) and second-to-last in YD/Touch at 3.2 and 3.3, respectively.

• Vikings WR Trishton Jackson could surprise, as he stepped in outside/as the No. 2 when K.J. Osborn left the game. Brandon Powell could pop too, as secondary and slot options have hit against the Saints with Marshon Lattimore likely focusing on Jordan Addison.

📖 Read Fantasy football Shadow Report by Mike Clay of ESPN. Amari Cooper and Browns WR’s are in for a tough week against the Ravens.

“Baltimore has allowed the fewest fantasy points over expected to WRs this season. Despite having faced the second-most WR targets, the Ravens have allowed the eighth-fewest points to the position. Wideouts are averaging 5.9 yards per target and 10.1 yards per reception against them, both the lowest in the league.”

🎙️Listen to The Utilization Report Debrief podcast hosted by Dwain McFarland, Ian Hartitz and Marcas Grant from Fantasy Life. They answer the Q: Is Aaron Jones finally unleashed in Green Bay?

🎙️Listen to Power Ranking the Most Frustrating Fantasy Players podcast hosted by Danny Heifetz, Danny Kelly and Craig Horlbeck of The Ringer. Trust the process with Tony Pollard … or don’t (35:26).

📺️ Watch a behind the scenes look at Mark Andrews journey to the NFL playing with Type I Diabetes.

CREATOR

Joe Orrico

In this series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Joe Orrico's (@NoExpertFF) love for Travis Etienne led him to a fantasy football career….seriously. After deciding to go all in with his research, Joe grew his following through producing high-quality threads on Twitter, highlighted by a thread explaining why Etienne would be a top 3 RB in 2023. BINGO.

Joe’s 🔥 take? Breece Hall finishes as a Top 3 RB to close out 2023 - and believes he will be heavily discussed in the top three next season, if not first overall.

Threadoor!

Buy Low Week 10 - DeVonta Smith. 14.1 FP in Week 9. Last season when Goedert was sidelined, Smith averaged 8+ targets and 15.8 FP per game… good for the WR9 during that stretch. Cash in on WRs ranked 20-30 for Smith.

Week 10 Risers - Rachaad White. White saw 73% of RB opportunities in Week 9 and hit 27.9 FP. He now has 4+ targets in 4 straight games and should be considered a top-18 RB moving forward, even against TEN and SF.

Week 10 Stash - Rondale Moore. When both Moore and Kyler were healthy last season, Moore was the WR17 between Weeks 4-10. Kyler is back this week…don’t overthink it, Moore could be usable in the flex moving forward.

Tweet of the Day

Good luck enjoying Bears vs. Panthers tonight…

And remember: if a Goodfellas character can play QB for the NY Giants, you can accomplish anything.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

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