Good morning. There are a few good things in life: standup comedy, naming old sports players and winning free sh*t.

We are giving away two Nike NFL Legend Player Jerseys!! Win a jersey of your choice, as long as that choice is not a kicker or current Patriots player.

The only catch? We are 78 subscribers away from 12,000. Help us get there.

1. One jersey will be shuffled among anyone with a new, verified referral from now until next Sunday (as we type this, there are currently 0 people who fit that criteria…)

2. If you win, we’ll also send the friend you refer some merch 👀 

3. Find your referral link at the bottom of this newsletter

But if you’ve already referred someone or can’t risk sharing this with your league-mates, don’t worry. We’ll be setting up a Week 12 subscriber Pick’em where you can win the other jersey.

More good news: Houston Texans safety Jalen Pitre won NFLPA Community MVP for Week 11. Jalen gave out 300 thanksgiving meals to Houston families in need and raised over $25,000 toward the fight against childhood hunger. Legend!

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Ja’Marr Chase falls to WR9. All Bengals pass catchers took a massive hit to their ROS prospects after Joe Burrow was lost for the season. Chase is still elite, but having Jake Browning under center severely lowers his ceiling.

Isaiah Likely rises to TE18. Mark Andrews was also lost for the season Thursday night, leaving a huge hole in Baltimore’s offense. In each of the 3 games he played without Mark Andrews last season, Likely finished as a top-10 TE — as a rookie.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

START EM SIT EM

Quarterback

Start Justin Fields. Fields “averages an absurd 28.4 FPG in games with a total of 45.0 or higher over the last two seasons (9 instances). The Bears-Lions total this week is 48.0”, per Jake Tribbey.

In Fields’ last two matchups against the Lions he had 147 and 132 rushing yards. And - if his thumb is truly recovered - he could build on his early-season success in the air (Fields still has more passing TDs then Trevor Lawrence and Lamar Jackson), per Ian Hartitiz of Fantasy Life.

Start Jared Goff. Goff “averages 24.9 DraftKings fantasy points when the Lions’ implied team total is 25.0 or greater. Goff also averages 5.8 more fantasy points at home than on the road since joining Detroit. With a 27.75 implied total this week, at home against a beatable Bears secondary, you’ll want to fire up Goff”, stats via Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points.

Sit Geno Smith. The Seahawks' offensive line has the league's fourth-largest disadvantage against the Rams front, per PFF’s offensive line/defensive line matchup chart, important because Smith’s efficiency drops significantly when he’s pressured (8.2 yards per attempt without pressure vs 5.4 with pressure), per Nathan Jahnke of PFF.

• Start Kyler Murray. Murray is facing a Texans secondary allowing 306 passing yards per game over their past five games, per Devin Knotts of Footballguys.

• Stop waiting until tomorrow. Winning a fantasy football title? Chasing that acting career? Giving up hardcore drugs? Today is the day you get after it, Jabroni!

Running Back

Start James Cook. Before former OC Ken Dorsey was replaced by Joe Brady, Bills HC Sean McDermott repeatedly said he wanted to have the threat of a running game be part of the offense. New OC Brady made the RB position (with CMC and Mike Davis) a big part of the passing offense in Carolina (video cut up of his schemes) and LSU (heck, look how high Clyde Edwards-Helaire was drafted). This all spells good news for Cook.

Start Devin Singletary. Just one of 12 RBs to see at least 60 snaps in any game this season, Singletary dominated without Dameon Pierce in Week 10. Pierce is out again this week.

The Texans face a Cardinals defense allowing the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing RBs (+4.3). Even Vegas likes Singletary, whose rushing yardage prop is the highest of any RB on the week (77.5) (yes, you read that right), per Scott Barrett’s DFS Breakdown ($).

Avoid the Bears backfield. D’Onta Foreman’s production and efficiency “have been elite (Top 10 in success rate), but Khalil Herbert has been almost as good. This is likely to be a time share in a low-volume offense once Herbert comes online”, per Michael Salfino of The Athletic ($). They also have Roschon Johnson. Avoid.

• And yes, if he plays, you start De’Von Achane. “The Dolphins are 12-point favorites and carry the No. 1 team total (29.25) on the slate” against a Raiders defense that allows the third-most rushing yards per game, per Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life.

• Sit Chuba Hubbard. In his past 3 games, Hubbard has averaged just 6.0 PPR points against Houston, Indianapolis and Chicago, and this week he takes on a Dallas D that ranks 7th in fewest FP allowed to opposing RBs, per Jamey Eisenberg of CBSSports.

• Start Najee Harris. Harris has a TD in three of his last four and the Browns have quietly given up the 4th-most rushing TDs (9) in the NFL, per Jake Ciely of The Athletic.

Wide Receiver

Start Puka Nacua. In three games with a healthy Stafford and Cooper Kupp, Nacua has averaged 16.7 fantasy points — only one point behind Kupp’s 17.7. This weekend against the Seahawks, Stafford is expected to start and shouldn’t have any significant limitations.

The Seahawks allow the eighth-most passing yards per game on the slate, and the Rams offer the ninth-highest team total coming off a bye, all positives, per Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life.

Sit Amari Cooper. When Dorian Thompson-Robinson - the Browns starting QB - last started in Week 4, the Fantasy Points charting team had him off-target on a brutal 32% of his throws and just 56.8% of his passes were catchable, per Graham Barfield’s Start/Sits. In four games with a Browns backup QB, Cooper has just 13 catches.

Start Marquise Brown. Brown (2.0 PPG underperformance) appears in this week’s Underperformance Model by Mike Leone of Establish the Run ($). They write that while Brown struggled in his first game with Kyler, he did see 24% of the target share (and Kyler missed a potential TD).

Sit George Pickens. In the past four games with Diontae Johnson in the lineup, Pickens is the WR41, averaging 7.2 FPPG. And this week he takes on a Browns team allowing the 2nd fewest FPPG to WRs in the NFL, per Mike Fanelli of Roto Baller.

• Start Tank Dell. He's the Texans’ best big-play option and has a rapport with fellow rookie C.J. Stroud. Dell has an elite 2.12 YPRR. He's an every-week starter, per Matt Waldman’s The Replacements.

• Stream Jake Bobo in deep leagues if Tyler Lockett sits. Lockett sat out of practice the entire week and is in danger of missing Week 11. Bobo would jump into three-WR sets for Seattle, as noted in Evan Silva’s Matchups Column ($).

• Tyler Lockett (hamstring) is listed as questionable, but there is optimism that he goes, per Schefty. Keep an eye on this.

Tight End

Start Luke Musgrave. The Chargers give up yards to TEs in spades. Week 10: Lions TEs went for 6-63-1. “The week prior: Tyler Conklin posted a 6-66 line, Cole Kmet 10-79 the week before that, and Travis Kelce 12-179-1 the week before that”, per Sigmund Bloom’s Offensive Sleepers.

Sit Cade Otton. He was the TE3 in Week 9, but crashed in Week 10. He’s likely to struggle against San Francisco, as the 49ers allow the fourth-fewest points to opposing TEs, and only one TE has scored against them this season, per Jamey Eisenberg of CBSSports.

• Stream Logan Thomas. A back-end TE1 attached to an extremely pass-heavy offense in Washington, Thomas has at least four receptions in five of the last six games, per Graham Barfield’s Starts/Sits.

• Start Jake Ferguson. The Cowboys TE has a 15.8% target share on a pass-happy Cowboys team (+8.9% Pass Rate Over Expectation or higher in three straight games).

INJURY REPORT

🚀 Stash

1. Panthers WR Jonathan Mingo has had at least 5 targets in every game except last week. If Bryce Young and the Panthers offense progress, he could be a go-to guy.

2. Last week, Cardinals WR Rondale Moore set season-highs in targets (9), target share (30%), receptions (5), yards (43), and aDOT (8.1), per Zach Buckley of Bleacher Report.

3. Cardinals RB Michael Carter could see some playing time in Arizona’s backfield. He’s an excellent route runner and receiver who can run tough inside if given the chance.

4. Ravens TE Charlie Kolar was actually drafted ahead of Isaiah Likely last year and is more of a true TE — similar to Mark Andrews. And this year, Kolar had the better camp in some observer's eyes, per Matt Waldman’s The Replacements.

👀 Monitor

1. Justin Jefferson (hamstring) will not be returning from IR this week.

2. Keenan Allen (shoulder) is expected to play.

3. Garrett Wilson (elbow) is expected to play, but admitted he may not be 100% — if you have other options, fade Wilson.

4. Justin Fields and Khalil Herbert do not have injury designations and are good to go for the Bears.

5. Antonio Gibson (toe) is unlikely to play, leaving more work for Brian Robinson and rookie Chris Rodriguez.

⛈️ Weather Report by @MattFFDynasty

1. TB @ SF: Winds around 15mph but gusts upto +25mph. Could lead to inconsistency with deep pass attempts and makes kickers in this one risky.

2. MIN @ DEN: Only moderate wind expected (~10mph) but some potential showers could lead to slippy conditions and an increased risky of drops/fumbles

3. PHI @ KC: Rain expect leading up to the game which could continue into the early stages of the game. Slippy conditions likely early so again increase risk of drops/fumbles and if the rain persists throughout, we could see slightly more opportunities in the run game.

Follow Matt for updated weather reports throughout the AM.

BEST BETS

🥇 Purdy over 1.5 passing TDs (-130)

With Deebo back, Brock Purdy threw for 3 TDs in Week 10. In his first seven starts last season, including playoffs, Purdy threw for multiple touchdown passes in each game. He had two or more TDs in three of his first five games to start 2023. His skill position players are healthy and Purdy should continue his strong play against a weak TB defense.

🥈 Walker III under 64.5 rush yards (-114)

Kenneth Walker III has struggled on the ground lately. In his past two games, he’s averaging only 2.8 YPC with just one run over 10 yards. Add in the fact that RB Zach Charbonnet has out-snapped Walker in each of the past three games with Walker’s utilization dropping significantly since the start of the season, it’s tough to bet the over on Walker here.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose. 2023 record 3-9 .

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Jake Ciely’s Week 11 Rankings at The Athletic ($).

One shocking stat: Travis Etienne has the highest percentage of rushes going for zero or negative yards at 30.8% (minimum 25 rushes), ahead of Alexander Mattison (28.4%) and Darrell Henderson (25.0%).

📖 Read Grab Austin Ekeler For the Playoff Run by TraderTim of RotoStreet Journal.

“Ekeler plays the Broncos twice and the Raiders once in the final four games of the season. Despite the recent success of the Broncos, they still can’t stop the run. Those games are fantasy bonanzas waiting to happen”.

📖 Read NFL General Manager Rankings by Brad Spielberger of PFF. Eagles’ Howie Roseman and the Chiefs’ Brett Veach lead Tier 1. Joining them? Bengals unofficial GM Duke Tobin, who has been with the team since 1999.

🎙️ Listen to Late Round Perspectives by Ben Gretch and JJ Zachariason from the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. They discuss how combining film with data and analysis can benefit fantasy managers.

🎙️Listen to Week 11 Preview by The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. They are worried about DJ Moore despite Justin Fields returning.

📺️ Watch Jahmyr Gibbs explain how he got the goal line TD against against the Chargers in Week 10. As someone with David Montgomery on many teams, this is disgusting. On the bright side, this looks like a special circumstance. “Montgomery will continue to dominate goal line work”, Dan Campbell told me in a dream.

Tweet of the Day

Good luck this week.

And remember: your fantasy team isn’t struggling, they’re just preparing to peak at the right time. Go get that W today and make a playoff push.

Now share the newsletter for a chance to win one of two jerseys (scroll down).

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus