Good morning. We’re arriving in your inbox later than usual today due to unexpected technical issues. A subscriber named Draymond was not happy with our “start Alexander Mattison” call last Sunday and choked off our servers. It’s a shame, because he’s usually so calm and collected.

On a positive note: We’re finalizing in-season giveaways. Thanks to all of you, we have sponsors! We also always have an excuse when we are asked to “help out” and “contribute” around our households.

We want to give away jerseys and rookie cards over the next few weeks, but you can respond to this email with any other giveaway ideas you have.

Good news to start your day: The finalists for the NFLPA Community MVP award for Week 10 are doing incredible work in their communities.

For example, Antoine Winfield Jr. spent Halloween trick or treating with children from A Kid’s Place, a Florida non-profit that provides residential services to children who have been removed from their homes due to abuse, neglect or abandonment. Love to see it.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Keaton Mitchell rises to RB34. The rookie speedster has just 15 touches this season, but is averaging a ridiculous 14.33 YPC. HC John Harbaugh regretted not getting Mitchell enough touches against Cleveland on Sunday, and said that will “factor into this gameplan” for their matchup tonight against the Bengals. If that comes to fruition, Mitchell could become De’Von Achane lite.

Amari Cooper falls to WR20. With Deshaun Watson having season-ending shoulder surgery, Cooper’s ceiling takes a serious hit. He’s averaging only 9.1 PPR FPPG without Watson vs. 17.6 with Watson, per @LateRoundQB. With rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson — not P.J. Walker — starting at QB, the entire Browns offense is a wild card.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

WINNING NOTES

Quarterback

It’s a shame the Browns don’t have a backup QB like Joshua Dobbs… Remember, the Browns gave Dobbs to the Cardinals for a minimal return this offseason (Dobbs & a 7th for a 5th). Now, with Watson done for the year, it’s the perfect time to remind any Browns fan in your life of that deal.

Throwing for a season-high in passing yards (268) last week, Dobbs is now 2-0 as a Viking despite limited practice reps and no Justin Jefferson. He’s currently outscoring Patrick Mahomes, is averaging more rushing YPG than Jalen Hurts (36.8) and has as many rushing TDs as Lamar Jackson (5) (@GuruFantasyWrld). Underrated upside for the home stretch with Jefferson returning.

Justin Fields (thumb) practiced in full yesterday and is expected to return in Week 11. Great news for all Bears playmakers, and massive for anyone with Fields making a playoff push. Fields was QB3 in Week 4 and QB1 in Week 5, averaging 31.0 fantasy points over those games and unlocking his passing upside as well.

Kyler Murray looked healthy, was comfortable moving, and the whole idea of “once he’s back you have a legit upside QB” looks valid. He’s back in a big way, per Ben Gretch’s Stealing Signals. From Weeks 2-8, Dobbs was the QB8. Murray will improve on that — especially when you consider that his new HC Jonathan Gannon is a huge upgrade and brought “culture shock” to Arizona.

• Jordan Love might be evidence the PFF grading system doesn’t work? Or maybe he hasn’t been that bad? His 84.3 PFF grade over the last two weeks ranks 6th out of 34 eligible QBs over that period. I’m guessing it’s not as good Weeks 1-8…

• Browns QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start against the Steelers this week. He threw three INTs in his last start against the Ravens. Avoid.

• Tua Tagovailoa got a new haircut. He looks just like Drake. QB1 time?

Running It Back

Jaylen Warren leads all qualified rushers with a broken tackle every 6.5 rush attempts in 2023, according to Pro Football Reference (per FootballGuys newsletter). As surprising as it sounds, Najee Harris ranks third at 7.7.

Before their Week 10 game, Warren was announced as the starter. But as reddit user miiizike noted: “Starter, non starter, doesn't matter. Tomlin will continue to run the exact same splits (same as last year basically too)”. He’s right: Najee still took the first snaps and Warren came in on the 7th play of the first drive. Continue to roll with both in the Steelers’ 1945 offense.

• Zach Charbonnet has now outsnapped Kenneth Walker in each of the last three games. Walker had a 64-yard touchdown reception - the only reason he outscored Charbonnet in PPR over the same period (@PFF_Fantasy, @FFNewsletter).

• De'Von Achane (knee) was limited in yesterday’s practice. The explosive RB averaged 154.3 yards, 2.3 touchdowns, and 32.1 fantasy points on just 12.3 carries per game (per Scott Barrett’s Everything Report). I need him back.

It’s not good for Tony Pollard. Pollard and CeeDee Lamb have the same number of rushing touchdowns since Week 2, Pollard’s yards per touch (4.4) is less than Ezekiel Elliott (4.5) and backup Rico Dowdle looked more explosive in Week 10. Pollard also had two goal-line carries that were stopped at the one-yard line last week.

As Denny Carter of NBC Sports notes, Pollard’s pass-game involvement is down: “He’s seeing a target on a humble 16.5 percent of his pass routes through Week 10. Last year, that number was 20.8 percent. In 2021, it was 25.2 percent.” Yahoo even removed Pollard from their “can’t cut" player list. Yikes.

Maybe he can’t handle the load? Prior to 2023, Pollard had just one game in his career with more than 20 carries (including college, where he had just two games with more than 9 carries).

Wide Receiver

Rashee Rice became a starter in Week 7 and his snap share has since risen from 59% to 61% to 68% (he had been playing just 37.5% prior). With an Over/Under of 47.5 in a matchup against the Eagles, Rice could have a breakout week. Prior to Week 9, he was PFF’s 4th highest rated rookie. His 79.4 grade also leads all Chiefs receivers. Could be a big stretch run player if they unleash him.

If Fields is back, D.J. Moore is the man. As Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points writes, Moore scored 19.4, 13.1, 30.1, and 52.0 DK fantasy points over Fields’ last 4 full games (averaging 28.7), but he averaged just 10.1 FPG across Tyson Bagent’s 4 starts.

Zay Flowers had an impressive 73-yard performance against the Browns and now faces a Bengals secondary that “just allowed 13-228-1 to Tank Dell and Noah Brown”. As Lawrence Jackson Jr. wrote for NBC Sports, the Bengals have given up an average of 115.2 receiving yards to the opposing team’s top wideout over the last four games. Don’t be afraid to start him tonight.

Michael Wilson “saw a 19.4% target share in Week 10 against Atlanta. It was the first time he'd played with Kyler Murray, so that's a good sign.” He almost had a TD. “The Cardinals wideouts have the ninth-best remaining schedule by adjusted fantasy points allowed, and they've got the fifth-best one in the fantasy playoffs”, per JJ Zachariason’s 15 Transactions newsletter.

• Curtis Samuel (toe) was limited in yesterday’s practice and Antonio Gibson (toe) missed practice. If Samuel sits, we trust Jahan Dotson. Then again, the Commanders are facing the Giants… maybe they’re all great options.

• RIP Jakobi Meyers’ big year. His target share with Jimmy G was 26.4%. With Aidan O’Connell? It’s down to 12.5%. For context, 12.5% would rank WR95, behind Michael Gallup and Tyler Conklin.

D/ST

And if you’re looking for a D/ST to stash:

MARKETS

Run-Pass Options

🏦 Stash Jerrick McKinnon. The Chiefs’ strategy with the 31-year-old veteran is to preserve him and then unleash him several weeks before the NFL postseason (during our fantasy playoffs, when production matters most). As Scott Barrett wrote, McKinnon was a league-winner down the stretch in 2022: he averaged 18.0 FPG over his final six games last year (2nd-most among RBs, behind only Christian McCaffrey). It’s worth the upside.

🚀 Trade for David Montgomery. With Jahmyr Gibbs getting all the hype, Montgomery owners might be willing to sell. Detroit’s backfield is “truly turning to a Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara circa 2017 where both guys can be used. Considering Montgomery is the cheaper of the two (despite the fact he started) and had two goal-line rushes stuffed at the 1-yard line, he’s the Lions RB to target,” per Andrew Erickson of FantasyPros.

👍️ Hold Rams WRs. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have been disappointing, but Matthew Stafford is expected to start against Seattle on Sunday, which should breathe some life into this Rams offense.

📉 Sell Brian Robinson. He was the RB1 last week thanks to his 6 catches for 119 yards and 1 TD. But Robinson is primarily a runner — he went into last week with only 138 receiving yards on the season. He remains a useful fantasy RB, but don’t bank on the receiving production to continue.

💧 Be ready to drop Christian Watson (in shallow leagues). In six games this season, Watson has yet to record more than 3 receptions and has gone for over 40 yards just once. And over his last four, Watson has failed to score more than 5 half-PPR points in and is averaging just 5.5 targets per game, per Robert Lorge of Roto Baller. If he disappoints against the Chargers this week, it’s drop time.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Fantasy Trade Strategy by Kayla Morton from Roto Street Journal. She explores the rest of season and fantasy playoff strength of schedule at the QB position. Dak Prescott may be a top-5 QB for playoff teams.

📖 Read 4 Impact Players Set To Return by Peter Overzet from Fantasy Life. In this newsletter, Peter analyzes potential league winners expected to return, Week 11 mismatches & buy, sells and holds. Is now the time to sell TJ Hockenson?

📖 Read Fantasy football Week 11: Matchups to exploit, avoid at each position by Tristan H. Cockcroft from ESPN. Fire up Brock Purdy against a soft Tampa Bay defense.

🎙️Listen to Dynasty Points: Fantasy Points x Full Tilt Dynasty. The great team goes through the RB landscape from top to bottom and rank where they have them going forward.

🎙️Listen to 10 Trends for Week 11 by JJ Zachariason from The Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. One trend JJ sees? Marvin Mims trending up. JJ explains why Mims is still worth a stash.

📺️ Watch Matt Harmon explain how the Cowboys are unlocking CeeDee Lamb 👇️ 

Tweet of the Day

At least Aaron Rodgers could return by thanksgiving 👀 

Before we go, send your well wishes to our writer, Marcus, and Browns fans everywhere — just when they think things have turned a corner, they get kicked in the nuts. The franchise is cursed.

Enjoy TNF! Hopefully Cincy vs. Baltimore will keep Al Michaels awake tonight.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

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