Good morning. It feels like just “a couple” of years ago that Eli Manning escaped the pocket and lobbed a prayer up to David Tyree for the Helmet Catch.

But 2008 was a long, long time ago.

Just ask any fans of the 2-8 New England Patriots or the 3-8 New York Football Giants.

Congratulations to the two NFL Jersey winners (Jeff & Elijah)! The lucky b——s went with a powder blue Justin Herbert jersey and a black Joe Burrow.

Today is your last chance to take advantage of The Athletic's deal of the year. Their typical $95+ yearly subscription is on sale for just $1 per month. Click the image below to learn more.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Tony Pollard rises to RB14. The positive TD regression is finally paying dividends for Pollard holders, as he’s scored in back-to-back games. He hasn’t lived up to the preseason hype but is still the RB1 on the highest scoring offense in the league.

Quentin Johnston falls to WR62. An already disappointing rookie season hit its lowest point last Sunday when he dropped a potential game-winning TD. His 38.9% success rate vs. man coverage and 50.9% success rate vs. zone are the 2nd-lowest in the history of Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception…

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

START EM SIT EM

Quarterback

Start Trevor Lawrence. His matchup against the Texans is fantastic. Over their last six games, Houston is allowing a 69% completion rate (5th-highest), 8.0 YPA (3rd-most), and 290.5 passing yards per game (2nd-most)”, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

Sit Derek Carr. Carr is QB27 in points per game, tied with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at 12.2 points. There’s zero reason to force him into your lineups this week (outside of Superflex/2 QB leagues).

Start Josh Dobbs. The Bears defense is better with CB Jaylon Johnson healthy; they are allowing the 2nd-fewest yards per attempt over the last six weeks. But Dobbs’ rushing floor (65 yards and 2 TDs in two games with the Vikings) keeps him a starter.

• Stream Baker Mayfield. He's on pace for 4,061 passing yards and faces a Colts defense that allowed Derek “Mid” Carr to post 310-2…

• Stream Gardner Minshew against a Buccaneers secondary allowing 25.9 fantasy points per game to QBs over the past month.

Running Back

Start Kyren Williams. Rams HC Sean McVay said: “If he’s feeling good, we want him to be able to have a normal workload.” Williams’ normal workload? The Rams RB1 posted 97%, 100%, 73%, 85% and 83% snap shares in five full games. The Rams face a Cardinals defense giving up the third-most fantasy points to RBs. The last time Williams faced the Cardinals, he finished as RB3 with 21.8 points.

Sit Devin Singletary. This is a tough pill to swallow after consecutive RB3 and RB11 finishes. But if Dameon Pierce (ankle) returns, the Texans plan to split the load between their two RBs. Facing a Jags defense allowing just 87 rushing yards per game (4th-lowest), you’re taking a big risk starting Singletary. The last game Singletary and Pierce played together (against an awful Panthers run defense), neither scored over 5.3 half-ppr points.

Start Keaton Mitchell if you need a boom/bust player (i.e. you’re projected to lose by 15+). Last week, Mitchell played the most snaps of his career. As Alfredo Brown of FootballGuys noted, the Chargers are allowing the second-most receiving yards to RBs. All it takes is one check-down to Mitchell and his 4.37 speed could turn any touch into a TD.

• Start Isiah Pacheco. Jerick McKinnon (groin) will miss Week 12’s matchup against the Raiders, leaving Pacheco to compete with the ghost of Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

• Sit all the Bears RBs. With D’Onta Foreman (ankle) expected to play, together with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, this should be a three-headed committee. Gross.

Wide Receiver

Sit Courtland Sutton. As Jonathan Fuller of FantasyLife noted, Sutton has been on a remarkable TD streak, scoring in five straight games. Yes, Sutton is Russell Wilson’s go-to red zone target. Yes, Sutton is 6’4”. But Sutton’s floor is dangerously low. With just 60 total targets (WR37) and a matchup against an elite Browns defense, this is the week Sutton is least likely to score a TD. His yardage wouldn’t compensate for that loss.

Start Nico Collins. Tank Dell is the no-brainer-must-start, but Collins is worth playing while Noah Brown (knee) is out. He’s making incredible catches (video) and quietly had 11 targets when Brown missed last week. The Jags allow +4.3 points above average to WRs (per FootballGuys SOS tool).

Start Josh Downs. Downs averaged 12.5 PPR points (WR36) through the first eight weeks. If his knee is healthy following the Colts’ bye, he could have a big performance against a struggling Bucs secondary allowing the fourth-most points to receivers over the past three weeks, per Alfredo Brown of FootballGuys.

Sit Chris Godwin. The Buccaneers WR has a stable floor (min. 50 yards in 6/7 games) but doesn’t offer much upside. Blame his lack of TDs. Godwin’s 75 targets to 1 TD ratio tops all WRs. Don’t expect that to change this week against a Colts defense allowing just one passing touchdown per game (the third-lowest).

• Start Cooper Kupp. After McVay confirmed that Kupp will suit up Sunday against the Cardinals, you want the Rams stud WR in all lineups.

• Start Rashid Shaheed with Michael Thomas on the IR. The deep ball specialist, Shaheed should see more volume than usual as the WR2 in New Orleans.

• Sit Jakobi Meyers because Aidan O’Connell is starting and you want to win.

Tight End

Start David Njoku. In the two games Dorian Thompson-Robinson has started, Njoku leads all TEs in target percentage (an elite 27.8%), first read share (33.3%, tied with Travis Kelce), and expected fantasy points per game (17.0), per Jake’s article on The Athletic. Njoku faces a Broncos defense where TEs score +3.5 points above their average.

Start Trey McBride. The Rams have struggled against TEs since losing two key members of their secondary this offseason; they allow TEs to score almost +3 points above their average. McBride had 4-62-0 receiving on five targets against the Rams in Week 6 despite splitting work with Ertz at the time, as noted by Matt Freedman of FantasyLife.

• Start Evan Engram in the “best possible matchup against a Texans defense surrendering the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+3.6)”, per Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points.

• Stream Tommy Tremble. The Panthers TE should play the majority of the game with starter Hayden Hurst out. Tremble had a TD last week as the first read in the red zone (video).

STASH REPORT

🚀 Stash:

1. ARI WR Michael Wilson saw a 19% target share in Kyler Murray's first start of 2023 and averages 11.2 yards per target, per Heath Cummings of CBSSports. Although he’s ruled out this week, he could be a high-upside WR3 when healthy.

2. KC WR Justin Watson had a season-high 11 targets last week, finishing with 5 catches for 53 yards and 1 TD. At some point, there has to be a WR to emerge from this offense… right?

3. TB RB Chase Edmonds is an underrated handcuff. Starting RB Rachaad White injured his knee in practice this week, but is expected to play. If White were to miss time, Edmonds is an ideal fill-in for the receiving back role in Tampa’s offense.

BEST BETS

🥇 Jonathan Taylor under 80.5 rushing yards (-110)

Taylor has only beat 80 yards once this season and is not trending in the right direction. He’s averaging under 3 YPC in his past two, staying under 70 yards in both despite increased volume. This week, Taylor is up against a Tampa Bay defence allowing the 5th fewest rush yards per game. Expect the Bucs to make limiting Taylor the focus of their defensive game-plan.

🥈 Jerome Ford over 49.5 rushing yards (-110)

Ford should be in for a heavy workload to reduce pressure on rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Ford only had 31 yards on 12 carries last week against a stout Steelers defence. Ford now faces a Broncos defense allowing the most rushing yards in the NFL this season (1,600). Expect the Browns to have a strong dose of the run game in their game plan.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose. 2023 record: 5-9 (we went 2-0 last week).

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read The Playbook by Mike Clay of ESPN. On why this isn’t the week to start any Broncos WRs.

“Courtland Sutton has been a TD machine (eight in 10 games), but he's outside the top 30 at the position in both targets and yardage. He and Jerry Jeudy (zero top-25 fantasy weeks) will take on a Cleveland defense that has allowed the second-fewest WR fantasy points along with the fewest receptions.”

📖 Read NFL Week 12 Recap by Nathan Jahnke of PFF. As we noted, the Jahmyr Gibbs goal line work from Week 11 was an anamoly.

“Jahmyr Gibbs played more snaps than usual because he is the Lions’ primary receiving back and they were playing from behind all game. Gibbs received some goal-line work last week, but it was David Montgomery who played near the goal line this week.”

📖 Read Fantasy Football Matchups That Matter by Jared Smola of DraftSharks. They touch on sneaky starters:

“The best argument in favour of Isaiah Likely is the matchup. The Chargers have allowed the third most catches and second most receiving yards to TEs this season. No surprise that they rank dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.”

🎙️Listen to Injury Updates & Fantasy Expectations by Justin Boone of The Score Fantasy Football Podcast. Justin believes Dameon Pierce is no threat to Devin Singletary’s value.

🎙️Listen to Week 12 Love/Hate with Matthew Berry. Matthew loves Michael Pittman against a weak Tampa secondary.

📺️ Watch this NFL Films feature on the Origins of Crazy Player Intros

Tweet of the Day

Check in on any Jets fans you know.

Inspiring news this holiday season: Tennessee Titans S Jeffery Simmons won the NFLPA Community MVP for Week 12. Jeffery gifted over 500 Nashville families with Turkeys for Thanksgiving.

Simmons has consistently held initiatives in his community, even launching his non-profit “Give Them A Reason Foundation” in 2022.

And remember: Tim Boyle is a starting QB in the NFL, which means you can do legit f—ing anything!

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean