Happy Thanksgiving! Let’s start with a story.

Back in 1994, 28-year old Cowboys star QB Troy Aikman sprained his left knee a week prior to a Thanksgiving matchup against Brett Favre and the Packers. To make matters worse, Aikman’s backup, Rodney Peet, was also injured. America’s team only had one man left. The backup’s backup, a QB who had only played two quarters all year.

You might recognize him👇️ 

That’s right, then-third-string QB Jason Garrett, the future hand clapper and ass smacker, was forced to start on Thanksgiving 29 years ago. And, despite an INT on his first drive, Garrett had the best game of his career. He threw for over 300 yards while leading the Cowboys to a thrilling 42–31 victory against Favre and the Packers. Emmitt Smith helped, a little (video).

Thanksgiving came early for Steelers fans. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada was fired on Tuesday. But not everyone is happy. Marcus (our resident Browns fan) is in rough shape. Matt Canada was his second-favorite coach in the NFL.

Canada’s firing marks the first time the Steelers fired a coach mid-season since 1941 (yup, during World War II). Ben Solak of The Ringer broke down the film to explain why the Steelers offense was struggling with Canada👇️ 

TRIVIA

Yesterday marked the 8th anniversary of the best play in NFL history. In the second quarter of a Thanksgiving game in 2015, Jets QB Mark Sanchez took a snap and opened to his left, while fullback Lex Hilliard, who was supposed to get the handoff, ran by on his right. Sanchez had confused 30 Dive (fullback handoff) with 20 Dive (halfback handoff). Realizing he’d turned the wrong way, a panicked Sanchez began blindly sprinting toward the line of scrimmage. That’s when it happened.

Sanchez’s instincts took over. He remembered his training. When running the football, you always do one thing: find a hole.

And it wasn’t the only time Sanchez stuffed his face with buns during an NFL game (video).

RANKINGS

Tua Tagovailoa drops to QB9. He hasn’t been bad, but his production has slowed. His lack of rushing ability (only 39 yards on the ground total in 2023), limits his upside; Tua has just one top-10 finish in his last four. With matchups against strong defenses (Jets, Cowboys, and Ravens) in the fantasy playoffs, you’ll be wishing you had an elite option.

Devin Singletary rises to RB24. The Texans have their new starting RB. In two games as a full-time starter, Singletary posted top-10 fantasy finishes and averaged 5+ yards per carry (Dameon Pierce in 2023: a measly 3 YPC). A better fit for OC Bobby Slowik’s zone running scheme, we’re betting Singletary is the guy this season (even with Pierce expected to be returning this week).

We also had to move the elite QBs up (Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen). The deeper we get into the season, the more valuable top-end difference makers are.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

POSITION REVIEW

Quarterback

Start Jordan Love (if you have to). Facing a Lions defense that allowed the QB2 in Week 10 and QB8 in Week 11, Love’s relatively high floor (he has at least 14 fantasy points in all but one start this year, per Evan Silva of Establish the Run) makes him a safer bet than usual in a dome against a struggling Lions pass defense.

Russell Wilson is playing well. Wilson is taking shots downfield at a higher clip: the Broncos had more air yards in Week 11 than in two prior games combined. Wilson also has the highest adjusted completion % in the NFL this season (80.8%), per PFF, and is feeding his RBs targets (Denver's 31.5% total target share to RBs easily leads the NFL, per Jacob Gibbs).

But sit Wilson against a Browns defense allowing just 12 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.

Justin Fields is a weekly must start. The Bears QB saw 14 designed runs in Week 10, the most in a game in his entire career. This adds a massive floor to the highest rushing upside at the QB position (sorry, Lamar). In a “prove it” season, Fields is showing massive improvements in the passing game, too. Since Week 4, Fields ranks 2nd in passer rating, 3rd in highly accurate throw rate and 4th in completion percentage over expectation (among 34 qualifying QBs, per Derek Brown).

• Water is wet. The Pope is Catholic. New Jets QB Tim Boyle should never start for any fantasy team. In three Boyle drives, the Jets had a fumble, a three and out and an INT. So maybe stash 3rd stringer Trevor Siemian in deep superflex leagues.

Running Back

Expect a heavy dose of A.J. Dillon, even if it might not mean much. Dillon saw every snap following the injury to Aaron Jones and should be the feature back today. It’s difficult to trust him against a Lions defense top-5 in limiting rushing yards per game and YPC allowed. Dillon also entered Thursday with a questionable tag (groin), making this next player important.

Packers RB Patrick Taylor is a sneaky stash. The Packers’ expected RB2 is strong in pass protection and expected to play on 3rd downs and in the 2-minute drill. Taylor said he got the call about coming back to Green Bay at halftime of Sunday’s game, mere minutes after Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson got hurt. Since Taylor was signed from another practice squad (the Patriots) the Packers must count him on their 53 man roster for 3 weeks (and pay him), even if they choose to cut him beforehand - further incentive to give him touches.

Start both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who split touches (14 each) in Week 11 and face a Packers team that teams love to run on; as Evan Silva noted, the Packers have seen the 7th-most rushing attempts against.

James Cook continues to trend up. The Bills went run heavy again (after switching offensive coordinators and play-callers), posting a second straight game with a -7.5% PROEs or lower (per Ben Gretch’s Stealing Signals). Cook was a focal point, and he turned 17 carries and 4 targets into 19.2 PPR points.

• Start Brian Robinson, who saw 78% snaps, 67% routes with Antonio Gibson out (both were season highs that shouldn’t stick when Gibson returns, but could be huge if Gibson misses more time), per Gretch’s Stealing Signals. Gibson returned to practice and may play.

• Jets rookie Israel Abanikanda (1-11, 2-1-5) only played in garbage time but should be the RB2 behind Breece Hall in New York. He’s apparently the reason the Jets were comfortable waiving Michael Carter.

• Run to meet up with us in Toronto, Ontario this Sunday. We’ll be at Elephant & Castle to watch Red Zone from 1-7pm with a bunch of fellow die-hard fantasy footballers.

Shooting Deep

Four Deep League Plays to Consider:

1. Packers TE Tucker Kraft is a streamable TE this week and might be going forward, too. Luke Musgrave is on the IR and Kraft should see the largest volume of his career.

2. Chiefs WR Justin Watson went 5-53-1 and continues to see a solid role. His 11 targets and 142 air yards led the team.

3. Rams WR Austin Trammell saw six targets, taking over for an injured Cooper Kupp. Trammell may be behind only Puka Nacua in the pecking order.

4. Dolphins RB Jeff Wilson might be still available. Grab him, if so. The Dolphins play Friday and Achane is unlikely to suit up. Ahmed is also injured, making Wilson the unquestioned RB2.

MARKETS

Time for a Pitt Stop

🚀 Hard to not love Michael Pittman Jr. He posted a 46% target share in Week 10 and has 8+ receptions in 7/10 games. The clear alpha in Indy’s passing offense, matchups against the Bucs, Titans, Bengals and Steelers give the Colts the easiest remaining schedule for WRs, per Andrew Erickson of FantasyPros.

✋ High five for Jahmyr Gibbs. Since returning from injury in Week 7, Gibbs ranks 4th in rushing yards, 2nd in yards per carry, T-2nd in rushing TDs, 3rd in receptions, and 4th in receiving yards, per Steve Palazzolo of PFF. The usage is matching the talent, making Gibbs a top-5.

👍️ Hold Isaiah Pacheco. He hasn't found the end zone since Week 7, but he’s been getting over 75% of carries for the Chiefs in the past month. The potential for positive regression, combined with his soft schedule (3rd easiest among RBs, per @SalVetriDFS), make Pacheco a must-start. Especially against Vegas this week.

📉 Sell Breece Hall. Since his bye in Week 7, Hall has played the 5th, 6th, 9th and 12th worst run defenses, yet only posted 118 total rushing yards (2.3 YPC), per @ChrisMangano. With Tim Boyle plus tough matchups down the stretch against Miami (twice), Atlanta, and Cleveland (in the fantasy championships), we’re fading Hall and the Jets.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read The Best Fantasy Football Plays by Matthew Freedman of Fantasy Life. Brandon Aiyuk makes the cut as one of his favorites, given how vulnerable the Seahawks are to No. 1 WRs.

📖 Read The Everything Report by Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points. Gabe Davis has fallen off, held without a catch in 2/3 games. Scott isn’t optimistic.

“I’m willing to treat Davis’ apparent demotion as real. Now, mind you, he’s not running fewer routes – it’s just that Kincaid has clearly leapfrogged him on the target totem pole. And such a demotion seems well deserved – Davis has exactly as many career regular season games with >110 receiving yards as Jonathan Taylor (1).”

📖 Read The Regression Files by Denny Carter of NBC Sports. Gus Edwards has scored a TD on 17% of his drives over the past four games. That’s enough to make Denny’s list.

“Will Edwards keep owning the analytics nerds? With a locked-in role as Baltimore’s red zone back, yes, probably. Does he become a barely usable RB3 when he does not manage at least one touchdown?” Yes.

🎙️Listen to Starts and Sleepers by TheFootballGuys. While Jayden Reed has been getting all the hype lately, they believe Romeo Doubs is the Packers WR to start this week.

🎙️Listen to Week 12 Fantasy Football Ranks by The Athletic Fantasy Football Podcast. They discuss how Jaylen Warren’s poor pass blocking may limit his potential upside and also discuss he may be more effective in a timeshare than in a bell-cow role (i.e. Tony Pollard…).

📺️ Watch the Top-10 Thanksgiving Games in NFL History

CREATOR

Dave Heilman

In this series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

From building his brand on Twitter to working with PFF, Dave Heilman (@DynastyDorks) is the man behind Dynasty Dorks and host of the SGPN Fantasy Football podcast with a focus on NFL gambling, redraft and dynasty. He’s also an expert consensus ranker, finishing in the top 15 in the industry multiple times.

Dave’s content slate:

• NFL Gambling Picks

• Weekly Redraft Rankings 

• Dynasty Content

Dave’s 🔥 take: Brandon Aiyuk is a top 5 WR and deserves respect… enjoy the ride.

If you’re interested in learning more about Dave, Dynasty Dorks or his content, his article NFL Picks Week 12: NFL and Public Betting Trends for Each Game is a great place to start. Here’s a snippet:

Tweet of the Day

Are you betting against the Cowboys covering today?

Be sure to give thanks to your family, friends, the military, and all others who allow us the freedom to spend “only a couple of hours” managing imaginary football teams.

We all work other jobs and write these before/after work, so we’re thankful someone reads them.

Happy Thanksgiving!

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

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