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Good morning. Today, there’s no time for anything but football. Needy spouses, IRS auditors, ungrateful kids - sorry, not today. The only exception: NFL RedZone’s Scott Hanson 👇️ 

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

With Jonathan Taylor set to miss 2-3 weeks, he falls to RB20. Subsequently, Zach Moss rises to RB28. The hope for Taylor managers is that he returns in time for the fantasy playoffs, but it’s entirely possible that Moss managers have themselves a potential league-winner (he put up 52.2 FP in 3 weeks as the starter).

Brandin Cooks rises to WR40. He’s finished as a top-24 WR in 4 of the last 6 weeks and has 11 receptions of 20+ yards in the last 3 weeks (best in the NFL). The Cowboys offense is absolutely cooking lately and hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

START EM SIT EM

Quarterback

Start Brock Purdy. Purdy had scored at least 20 fantasy points in three straight games before Week 12. In a potential shootout against the Eagles this week - over the last three games, opposing quarterbacks have thrown the ball an average of 46 times per game. QBs average +4.6 points above their typical performance against the Eagles, which would put Purdy at 23.1 points, per Alfredo Brown of Footballguys.

Sit Kyler Murray. Vegas has lost faith in Murray and the Cardinals, giving them an implied team total of 18 (lower than the Flacco-led Browns and Ridder’s Falcons). Murray is struggling post-ACL. He ranks 38th in completion percent over expected among QBs with at least 100 attempts, per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports.

Start Jared Goff. The Lions are four point favorites over the Saints, which is huge for Goff. Whenever he’s favored over the past two years, he averages 300+ yards and 2+ TDs, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points. That’s an extra 60 yards and 1.2 TDs than when Goff’s an underdog.

• Start saving up for the house you’ll be able to afford in 40 years, millennials.

• Start Russell Wilson, who has thrown eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions during the Broncos five-game winning streak, per The Athletic. His yardage has been a problem (over the 200-yard mark only once) but he could hit explosive plays (16 or more yards) against a Texans team allowing them at the 8th-highest mark in the league.

Running Back

Start Alvin Kamara. He should see 10+ targets with Rashid Shaheed (thigh) and Michael Thomas (knee) out. “In Saints losses, Kamara is averaging 9.6 targets per game (but just 4.3 T/G in wins)”, which is great news for anyone with Kamara; The Saints are four point underdogs to the high-scoring Lions this week, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

Sit Chuba Hubbard. The Panthers average a league-low 0.46 yards before contact and face a Buccaneers defense that has only allowed two RBs to top 78 rushing yards (D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor). Taylor is the only RB with a rushing touchdown against them, per Jake Ciely of The Athletic.

Start Najee Harris. Since Week 7, Harris is averaging 13.5 points per game (RB13 in PPR) and faces a Cardinals defense that just made Kyren Williams look like Barry Sanders, per Alfredo Brown of Footballguys. Harris and Jaylen Warren are both startable.

• Sit Brian Robinson. He had 64 scoreless yards in a blowout loss to the Cowboys last week. The Commanders are 9.5-point underdogs to a Dolphins team that no RB has scored 12 PPR points against since Week 6, per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports.

• Watch James Conner. Michael Carter ran more routes and saw more targets than Conner, who has seen just a 7% target share since returning from injury. The Cardinals are 5.5-point underdogs, per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports.

What about De’Von Achane?

Wide Receiver

Start Jaylen Waddle. Despite ranking 26th in fantasy points per game (14.0), Waddle actually averages 9.4 targets and 17.3 points in healthy contests (route participation of above 80%). The Dolphins face a Commanders defense allowing the third-most receiving yards (278) and the most TDs (2.3) per contest, per Dwain McFarland of FantasyLife.

Sit Drake London. He turned 7 targets into 91 yards in Week 12 against a good Saints defense. But the run heavy Falcons (Ridder threw just 21 times) face the Jets, who are allowing a league-low 70.8 yards per game to opposing outside receivers, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

Sit Christian Watson. Watson looked great on my bench last week. He’s set to disappoint with the Chiefs' L'Jarius Sneed potentially shadowing Watson. Sneed held AJ Brown to 8 yards on four targets and Davante Adams to 73 yards on seven targets. The Chiefs have allowed the 9th-fewest fantasy points to perimeter WRs, where Watson has aligned 69% of the time this season, per Mike Clay of ESPN.

• Start George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. The Cardinals have struggled against perimeter WRs (third-most points allowed, including the most over the last eight weeks). Johnson (80%) and Pickens (86%) run almost all of their routes from the perimeter, per Mike Clay of ESPN.

• Start the 49ers pass-catchers. The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points to WRs this season (and over the last four weeks).

• Sit Marquise Brown against Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr., who has shut down star WRs in recent weeks, per PFF’s Nic Bodiford.

Tight End

Start Juwan Johnson. Johnson had a season-high seven targets and an 85% route participation in Week 12. Expect the Saints TE to be the second option on the team thanks to an injury depleted receiver room likely without Thomas and Shaheed, per Dwain McFarland of FantasyLife.

Sit Tyler Higbee. Last week’s 19.9 ppr points make Higbee a tempting start. Don’t do it. He’s facing a Browns defense allowing just 2.3 receptions and 20.6 yards per game, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

Start Chigoziem Okonkwo. Okonkwo “had a 19% target share last week and this week faces a vulnerable Colts defense that is tied with the Falcons for the third-most targets allowed to TEs this season”, per Liz Loza's Facts vs. Feelings on ESPN.

• Stream Hunter Henry. “If you’re desperate, Henry is a decent gamble with the Chargers having the highest TE average points against since Week 7 (14.4)”, per Jake Ciely of The Athletic.

FANTASY PLAYOFFS

D/ST to Stream

What DST should you pick up for the fantasy playoffs? Thankfully, Ian Hartitz of FantasyLife wrote an excellent Fantasy Questions Week 13 column that answered this.

ELITES

These teams have a top-10 easiest schedule in Weeks 15 and 17. As Ian notes, they are probably unavailable but “keep an eye out for the Eagles potentially becoming available ahead of tough matchups with the 49ers and Cowboys prior to a fantasy playoff stretch against the Seahawks, Giants and Cardinals.”

• 49ers

• Browns

• Eagles

• Jets

STREAMERS

Packers’ schedule is incredible. After the Chiefs this week, they face the Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers and Vikings.

Rams face the Commanders, Saints and the Giants in Weeks 15-17 and could push for a playoff spot.

Jaguars face the Buccaneers and Panthers Weeks 16-17. Just avoid the Ravens matchup in Week 15. Their next two games: Bengals and Browns.

• Chiefs face the Pats, Raiders and Jake Browning-led Bengals Weeks 15-17.

• Texans face the Titans in Weeks 15 and 17 and the Browns in Week 16.

• Colts face the Steelers, Falcons and Raiders Weeks 15-17.

• Saints face the Giants, Rams and Buccaneers Weeks 15-17.

• Falcons offer a sneaky option. You’ll get the Jets this week, then the Panthers, Colts and Bears Weeks 15-17.

Get the facts, not opinions. 1440 delivers.

Overwhelmed by biased news? Cut through the clutter and get straight facts with your daily 1440 digest. From politics to sports, join millions who start their day informed.

BEST BETS

🥇 AJ Dillon under 50.5 rushing yards (-120)

With Aaron Jones (knee) out, AJ Dillon is again expected to be the lead RB in Green Bay. The Packers are underdogs against an imposing Chiefs team, making it unlikely game script works in Dillon’s favor. Dillon has been nursing a groin injury in recent weeks, resulting in limited practice. Maybe that’s why he’s only gone over 43 yards once in the past six games.

🥈 AJ Brown over 74.5 receiving yards (-115)

In what should be the game of the week, AJ Brown will show up. San Francisco has a strong defense, so teams throw on them twice as much as they run against them. He’s been quiet the past two wheels and will demand the ball early and often.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose. 2023 record: 6-10 (1-1 last week).

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read RB Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em by The Wolf from Roto Street Journal. The Wolf focuses on who to start between Breece Hall, De’Von Achane and Devin Singletary. 

📖 Read The Everything Report by Scott Barrett from Fantasy Points. It seems that the absence of Dawson Knox since Week 7 has negatively impacted Stefon Diggs.

“WRs are notably more efficient in 12 personnel than 11 personnel (lesser target competition), and that’s also been the case for Diggs, who has been twice as efficient in 12 personnel this year. Through the first seven weeks of the season (with Knox healthy), Buffalo ran 12 personnel 36.6% of the time. Since then, that’s fallen to just 1.4%.”

📖 Read The Funnel Defense Report by Denny Carter of NBC Sports. The article reaffirms to start Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren against the Cardinals.

“Pro Football Focus’ lowest graded rush defense, the Cardinals have been generous to opposing rushers all season. They allow the fourth highest yards before contact per rush through Week 12. No team has been a more extreme run funnel since Week 9.”

🎙️Listen to Win Your Fantasy Playoffs with THESE Players! by The FootballGuys. They debate if Isaiah Pacheco can be the fantasy playoff MVP 👀

🎙️Listen to the Week 13 Preview by the Ringer. They dive into league winners, the ascension of Jordan Love and what to expect with Joe Flacco back at QB.

📺️ Watch former NFL QB Kurt Benkert teach coverages using Madden.

Tweet of the Day

Good luck in Week 13.

And remember: we only have a handful of NFL Sundays left, so make them count. It’s why we need to sit our a** on the couch.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

PS. If any Eagles fans want to grab a beer at the tailgate today, reply to this email. Cheers!