Good morning. It’s Week 14. Already. We were worried we’d run out of material by now. Thankfully, the NFL is the gift that keeps giving:

Good news to start your day: Broncos star CB Pat Surtain II was named Week 14 NFLPAs community MVP after he generously gave a grant of $100,000 to two Title I high schools.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Austin Ekeler falls to RB15. He went from a PPR cheat code to finishing as the PPR RB20 or worse in 3 straight weeks. His FPPG from purely receiving production is at just 7.4, down from 12.3 last season (per Ian Hartitz). And with HC Brandon Staley hinting at Joshua Kelley getting more carries, the vibes are bad for Ekeler.

Jerick McKinnon rises to RB44. Isiah Pacheco’s out with a shoulder injury, so cue the flashbacks to December 2022, where McKinnon finished as the RB1 in back-to-back 30+ point games (per @theOGfantasy). It very well could happen again, as injury analysts, like Matthew Betz of the Fantasy Footballers, think it could be a multi-week injury for Pacheco. Stash McKinnon and CEH if still available.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

START EM SIT EM

Quarterback

Start Lamar Jackson, who is “flashing as a positive regression candidate, ranking QB6 in success rate but just QB16 in EPA per game,” per Pat Kerrane’s Week 14 Walkthrough. Jackson will also be facing a Rams defense that ranks just 20th in EPA allowed per rush, boosting his rushing potential. 

Start Justin Fields. Detroit is allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, and Fields has rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last 3 matchups against them, per Justin Boone of theScore.

Sit Matthew Stafford, who is against a Ravens defense “allowing a league-low 0.24 passing fantasy points per dropback and league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Baltimore has allowed one quarterback to finish inside the top-12 weekly finishers, and that was to Josh Dobbs (who needed 6/26/1 rushing to get there)”, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

• Sit Jared Goff in Week 14’s road game against the Bears - it will be outdoors (with “noticeable wind and a chance of rain) against a team that has only allowed one QB (Justin Herbert) to post over 17 points in their last seven weeks.

• Stream Gardner Minshew against the Bengals. “Minshew is averaging 37.5 pass attempts per start, which is second among QBs. We’re jamming quarterbacks into lineups against the Bengals. Over the last five weeks, Cincinnati has allowed a league-high 295.4 passing yards per game”, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

Running Back

Keep Austin Ekeler in your lineup. “Ekeler's share of the snaps, carries and routes are actually up from last season and, prior to the three-game slump, he had three top-six fantasy outings in a row. This week, he's in a rebound spot against a Denver defense that has allowed the most RB fantasy points this season”, per Mike Clay of ESPN.

Start Chuba Hubbard. “Hubbard played 65% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps last week and had a season-high 25 carries for 104 yards and 2 TDs. Now he faces a deteriorating Saints defense that allowed 370 rushing yards in its last 2 games.Hubbard should be a fantasy auto-start this week,” per Pat Fitzmaurice of FantasyPros. On the negative side, Hubbard is unlikely to keep scoring touchdowns on a Panthers offense averaging 1.3 per game.

Sit Gus Edwards. He’s been losing work to Keaton Mitchell and is taking on a Rams D allowing the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs. Edwards relies on TDs, but LA hasn’t allowed a rushing TD in their last 3 games, and only 5 RBs have scored against them this season, per Jamey Eisenberg of CBSSports.

Consider Keaton Mitchell. “When we last saw the Ravens, Keaton Mitchell played on a career-high 32 snaps (46%) and matched career-best marks in carries (9) and targets (2). He was his usual productive self (89 yards on 11 touches) and is now averaging 9.3 yards per carry", per Mike Clay of ESPN.

Start Zack Moss, who remains a top-10 RB option despite disappointing last week. “His usage almost couldn’t have been better. He played on 64 of 68 snaps (94%), handling 19 of 19 carries. His 64 snaps were the 5th-most of any RB in any week this season. And although Moss failed to find the end zone, he had 8 touches inside the 10-yard line (7 carries, 1 reception), which was the most by any RB in any game this season”, per Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points.

• Start Clyde Edwards-Helaire in DFS? ($4,200 DK, $5,500 FD) ETR has him listed as a top-3 RB play on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. He’s a near-minimum RB and the expected RB1 and bellcow this week with Isiah Pacheco ruled out, per Establish the Run’s DFS Top Plays.

• Avoid both Seahawks RBs (Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet) if you can. Their health remains uncertain and will see a tough matchup against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fewest RB yards this season.

• Start Christian McCaffrey. “Is water wet? Does a bear sh-t in the woods?” We wanted to be right about at least one take.

Wide Receiver

Upgrade DJ Moore due to expected coverage by Jerry Jacobs. These teams met in Week 11, where Jacobs shadowed Moore on 21 of his 25 routes. The plan didn't work well, with Moore posting a 7-96-1 receiving line on nine targets, per ESPN’s Shadow Report.

Downgrade Stefon Diggs against the combination of Chiefs' L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie. Sneed has shadowed in 11 consecutive games tracing back to Week 2, including holding AJ Brown to a 1-8-0 receiving line on four targets in Week 11. Last week, while Romeo Doubs had 72 yards, he managed only one catch for 5 yards on 20 routes against Sneed.

Start Brandin Cooks. “Dallas has gone pass-heavy and used far more motion since its bye, and the offense has benefited greatly as a result. Cooks should be extra busy Sunday against an Eagles defense that’s stout against the run but allows by far the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season,” per Dalton Del Don of Yahoo.

Sit Chris Godwin. His only points last week came on a 19 yard TD run. Besides that, he had only 3 targets and 0 receptions. Godwin still has just one receiving TD on the season and hasn't topped 66 receiving yards since Week 6, per Jamey Eisenberg of CBSSports.

• Start Deebo Samuel against the Seahawks. “Seattle runs zone coverage 83.8% of the time, and Samuel leads the 49ers in target share (24%) and yards per route run (3.02) over Aiyuk (21% TS | 2.70 YPRR) against zone”, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

• Swap out Seahawks WRs if you have strong backups. With Geno Smith a true game-time decision and Seattle playing at the late window, you may wish you went with a capable backup. We still don’t trust Drew Lock.

Tight End

Start Kyle Pitts. Pitts is coming off 90% route participation and led the team with a 30% target share and 40% air yard share last week. Pitts has been seeing targets in the splash zone – where the Buccaneers are weakest – at a very high rate. This is arguably his best setup of the season, per Pat Kerrane’s Week 14 Walkthrough. Oh boy.

Sit David Njoku. He managed just 3.7 fantasy points in his first game with Joe Flacco and faces a Jaguars D that has allowed just 3 TDs and the 2nd-lowest catch rate to TEs this season, per Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated.

Start this Saints TE. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Taysom Hill (foot/hand, questionable) is expected to sit against the Panthers. This makes Juwan Johnson a strong streamer.

• Stream Bengals TE Tanner Hudson. Since Week 9, Hudson is averaging just over five targets and four catches a game, as well as eight fantasy points per game, per Thomas Valentine of PFF. The Colts are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to TEs this season.

BEST BETS

🥇 Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards (-115)

Mahomes has went over this number just twice in his past seven games and the Bills are only allowing 19.3 rushing yards to opposing QB’s this season. In his past ten games, the average line for Mahomes rushing has been 21.9 and he’s averaged 25.6. The significant increase in his rushing line this week is too rich for our team.

🥈 Ja’Marr Chase over 67.5 receiving yards (-113)

Even without Joe Burrow at QB, Chase has produced. In two games with Jake Browning, Chase has 15 catches for 230 yards and a TD. Chase is still the focal point of the offense and is set on breaking the Bengals single season receptions record. Expect him to be force-fed the ball for the rest of the season. He is over this number in 8 of his past 10.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose. 2023 record: 7-11 (1-1 last week).

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Week 14 Fantasy Football Preview ($) by Chris Vaccaro of The Athletic. He is high on Nico Collins for the fantasy playoffs, but downgrades him for Week 14.

“Up against the Jets this week — and it’s outdoors, where bad weather is expected — so I would downgrade the passing offense.”

📖 Read ESPN+ Cheat Sheet by the ESPN Fantasy staff. They curated all their articles throughout the week into one that summarizes everything you need to know for Week 14:

• The Playbook: Roschon Johnson is the best bet for success right now in the Chicago backfield, but [don’t trust] him in Week 14.

• Facts vs. Feelings: Cole Kmet has at least seven targets in four of his past five games and has a defined role in the red zone. He's got top-10 TE appeal.

📖 Read Three WR/CB Matchups to Target and Avoid by Nic Bodiford of PFF. Nic is high on Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs the 49ers expected coverage.

“Among 34 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 75 slot receiver-coverage snaps this season, Lenoir (83.3%) and Oliver (92.9%) rank 30th or worse in catch rate allowed, creating significant post-catch opportunities for Smith-Njigba.”

🎙️Listen to Players Skyrocketing Up Rankings by The Audible podcast. They discuss a question that would’ve sounded idiotic the start of the season: Should you bench Patrick Mahomes for the playoffs (at 36:45)?

🎙️Listen to Team-by-Team Week 14 Preview by Establish The Run. Projections for every player from every game, rankings, Evan Silva’s matchup column and more.

📺️ Watch Drew Brees break down the Dolphins 👀 

Tweet of the Day

Has there ever been such a fraudulent 7-6 team?

Good luck during this final week of the fantasy football regular season.

And remember: Bailey Zappe threw 3 TDs Thursday night, so your 10% playoff odds don’t seem so bleak. Go get that W today.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean