Good morning. Tonight’s Patriots and Steelers matchup is bittersweet.

Bitter because it marks the start of the final week of the fantasy football regular season. Sweet for anyone who enjoys texting miserable fans of the Patriots and Steelers. We’ve waited a long time for this.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Terry McLaurin falls to WR40. He got cardio last Sunday, but that’s about it, with 0 receptions on 3 targets. His 53.4 receiving yards per game are the lowest of his career and he has fewer FPPG than Curtis Samuel (when Samuel plays in full), per @ScottBarrettDFB. Pass.

Trey McBride rises to TE4. Since given a starting role, McBride leads all TEs in targets and receptions, is 2nd in yards, and 3rd in FPPG (16.2), per @RonStewart.

The second-year stud TE acts as a fringe-WR1, scoring as the WR14 in FPPG while posting a 28.3% target share (good for WR6), per @ScottBarrettDFB.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

POSITION REVIEW

Quarterback

Dak Prescott’s Weeks 14-17 schedule = league-winner. “What do the Bills, Dolphins, and Lions have in common? They all put up points in bunches. They're also not particularly strong against fantasy football quarterbacks. That's a perfect recipe for Dak Prescott to continue his hot streak,” per Andrew Ball of RotoBaller.

This week, Dak faces an Eagles secondary that was just torched by Brock Purdy (29.5 points, QB2). The Eagles allow QBs to score a league-high +4.9 points above their average, per FootballGuys tool; since Week 8, Dak is averaging 28.8 points per game. This would project him for over 33 points.

Don’t panic over Justin Herbert. Bad weather and a strong Patriots defense are the cause of Week 13’s 7.9 point outing. “Herbert has scored at least 20 points in 54% of his games this season and should remain locked in as a high-end QB1 moving forward,” per Tim Brosnan of FantasyPros.

C.J Stroud has been a revelation (QB4 in fantasy points per game), but lost his favorite WR in Tank Dell and faces the league's top pass defense (QBs score -4.0 fantasy points less against the NYJ). Consider alternatives in game that could have bad weather, per Josh Larky & Ryan Reynolds of The 33rd Team.

• Lamar Jackson has just two 20-point games since Week 4 and only one 20-point game since Week 7. He has fewer than 15 fantasy points in four of his past five games, per Liz Loza of ESPN.

• Jets coach Robert Saleh said Zach Wilson will start in Week 14 against the Texans, as if that matters. J(ust)-E(ndure)-T(he)-S(uffering).

• Derek Carr was practicing despite a concussion in Week 13. Carr said he “feels good” and is recovered from neck and rib injuries. The concussion may keep him out in Week 14, which would be huge for Jameis Winston & Chris Olave.

Running Back

It’s not looking good for Austin Ekeler. “Chargers HC Brandon Staley suggested a potential "competition" for backfield carries when asked about increasing Joshua Kelley's workload. RB Austin Ekeler has recorded 24 carries for 50 yards in the last two games”, per @alexinsdorf99.

It’s been a rough 2023 for Ekeler, the preseason RB2, who is RB26 on the season. 17.5% of his carries have gone for 0 or negative yards, per @kyle_borg. Ekeler sustained a high-ankle sprain Week 1; he's at 2.99 YPC since. Prior to 2023, Ekeler's career YPC was 4.59, per Adam Levitan.

Keaton Mitchell is primed for a breakout. Mitchell played a season-high 46% of snaps in Week 12, leading the Ravens in rushing yards (64) and totalling 89 yards on 11 touches. “It’s clear the Ravens are ramping up their speedy rookie for a big role down the stretch, and we think the full breakout happens this week after the bye,” per Nick Musial of Sporting News.

Derrick Henry (concussion) is expected to play. Henry left Week 13 after taking a brutal hit. If he plays, Henry faces a Dolphins defense allowing the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs; they also have not allowed a rushing TD since Week 7.

Expected to lose by almost two TDs, Henry is a borderline sit. In games the Titans have lost by more than 8 points, Henry has scored 5.4 PPR points or less in each outing, per Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em by Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports.

Sit Najee Harris, who was unable to practice on both Tuesday and Wednesday with a knee injury - not great news heading into tonight’s game. Harris is expected to play without practicing, but Jaylen Warren could see his biggest workload of the season.

• Kenneth Walker (oblique) was listed as a non-participant in Wednesday’s practice and is in danger of missing Week 14.

• Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) will not play tonight against the Steelers, keeping Zeke in the RB2 conversation.

• Isiah Pacheco (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday. Keep an eye on this.

• Breece Hall (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday, making Dalvin Cook a borderline must-add.

Wide Receiver

Fade Adam Thielen. “After ranking as the WR8 in Weeks 1-8, he’s the WR48 since. Part of Thielen's drop in production has stemmed from a drop in his total target share, having averaged 10 targets per game to start the season but just 7.2 targets per game since Week 9,” per Kate Magdziuk of PFF.

"It's tough. I'm not going to lie to you, I'm not going to sugarcoat anything. It's tough. Plans have changed..." - Thielen when asked about his role following Frank Reich’s departure. If the 1-11 Panthers don’t trust Thielen, you shouldn’t either.

📈 Rashee Rice has emerged. “He’s seen 19 targets, good for a 31% target share, over the last two weeks. That’s 6 more targets than Travis Kelce. He’s yet to top a 70% snap rate this season, but he is starting to command targets when he is on the field,” per Aaron Larson of the Fantasy Footballers.

📉 It might be time to bench Tyler Lockett. Lockett’s now scored 10 or fewer in seven of his last ten and faces a 49ers defense that held him to 3 catches for 30 yards in their Week 12 matchup. Look elsewhere, per Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em by Michael Florio. Matt Harmon explains what’s gone wrong (video): “the competition and the squeeze for targets [with JSN in the mix] is real”.

• Justin Jefferson practiced in full. He’s back. This return will be a boost for Joshua Dobbs, who was named the starting quarterback for the weekend, and for fantasy teams everywhere.

• John Metchie is a must-stash with Tank Dell done. Metchie would’ve been added everywhere had he connected on these potential extra 11 PPR points👇️ 

Tight End

Start Isaiah Likely. “Likely gets a Top 3 TE matchup with the Rams after posting a 4/40 line in Week 12 on six targets. I’m starting him over Evan Engram in one league”, per Renee Miller of The Athletic.

Texans TE Dalton Schultz (hamstring) was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice, a positive development after he missed every practice last week. Last week, “Brevin Jordan ran a route on 74% of C.J. Stroud dropbacks for a 19% target share, and he should see increased looks if Dalton Schultz (hamstring) is out”, per Samuel Sherman of Establish the Run.

• Dallas Goedert was a full participant at yesterday’s practice and can be expected to suit up.

• Darren Waller (hamstring) said he expects to return to practice next week and hopes to play in Week 15 against the Saints. Fantasy managers (given up) aren’t encouraged to start him.

• Trey McBride almost had another 7.5 PPR points last week…

D/ST

The top-5, per Sports Illustrated’s Michael Fabiano.

1. Browns (vs. JAC)

2. Steelers (vs. NE)

3. Dolphins (vs. TEN)

4. 49ers (at SEA)

5. Texans (at NYJ)

The streamers for this week, per Eric Samulski of NBC Sports Week 14 D/ST Rankings 👇️ 

• Saints (vs. CAR): They rank ninth in turnover rate and 10th in opponent’s scoring rate and face a Panthers team allowing 11.25 fantasy points per game over the last month (4th most).

• Packers (at NYG): They rank ninth in pressure rate and have averaged 7.7 fantasy points per game over the last two months. The Giants offense struggles (sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month) and the Packers could easily score 9-12 points.

Hard to trust studs:

• Ravens (vs. LAR): Over the last month, the Rams allow the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses.

• Cowboys (vs. PHI): “The Cowboys defense averages just three points per game in the six games where they’ve played an offense that is not a top-10 matchup for fantasy purposes. The Eagles may turn the ball over, but they are certainly not a plus matchup for fantasy defenses, which means that the Cowboys are hard to trust this week,” per the D/ST Rankings.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read the Sheesh Report by Ian Hartitz of Fantasy Life. This article highlights several players who should have had a bigger day if it wasn’t for drops, inaccurate passes, flags or being stopped short of the endzone.

📖 Read The Regression Files by Denny Carter of NBC Sports. Although Zack Moss disappointed in Week 13, there is good news:

“Moss had 19/19 running back carries for the Colts last week against a tough Tennessee rush defense. He was wretched on those attempts, logging 2.7 yards per carry and forcing a single missed tackle. 99 percent of his rushing yards came after contact, which means the Colts offensive line was overwhelmed. Moss finished Week 13 with the second most expected fantasy points among running backs.”

📖 Read Facts vs. Feelings by Liz Loza of ESPN. Liz tries to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants.

🎙️Listen to 15 Transactions for Week 14 by JJ Zachariason of The Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. He advises to sell the Dallas Cowboys D/ST (at 1:22).

🎙️Listen to Power Ranking the League Winners Nobody’s Talking About by The Ringer Fantasy Football Show. They analyze if Javonte Williams is officially back 👀 (19:36).

📺️ Watch Jaelan Phillips mic’d up when he hurt his achilles. A triggering video reminds us that these players are people with real struggles. Praying for a speedy recovery for him. Another MetLife victim…

@nflonfox

You can’t help but feel for Jaelan Phillips when he went down with a torn Achilles 😕 #nfl #miamidolphins #hardknocks

Tweet of the Day

Tonight is the lowest over/under for a regular season NFL game since the Patriots played the Bengals in Week 15 of the 1993 season.

That game? It finished 7-2. You can watch the “highlights” here (video).

While you’re watching the “game” tonight, remember that it’s still professional football. They are all paid millions, except Bailey Zappe, who is paid just $870,000.

We all deserve a raise.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

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