Good morning. It was a rough weekend for fantasy teams. With injuries to studs - Tank Dell, Trevor Lawrence, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Robinson, and even a member of the chain gang - positivity is in short supply.

Thankfully, the world has the hero we need. BIG DOM, who makes New Eagles’ LB Shaquille Leonard look tiny.

Dom DiSandro, the Eagles Chief Security Officer, made headlines after getting ejected for his altercation with 49ers LB Dre Greenlaw. He was escorted off the field to a standing ovation from the Philly fans. The Legend of Big Dom has led to a frenzy on social media, from Tony Soprano comparisons to highlight reels.

The best part? Big Dom has his own merchandise, where 100% of proceeds go the Eagles Autism Foundation. Sales are surging since Sunday, per 6ABC in Philadelphia. They make perfect holiday gifts 👇️ 

More good news to start your day: The only positive news out of New England: DE Lawrence Guy was Week 13 NFLPAs Community MVP after donating 40 baby strollers to underprivileged indigenous mothers in the Greater Boston area.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Nico Collins rises to WR15. Unfortunately, we can’t turn injuries off. Collins was a true alpha with Tank Dell (ankle) leaving early, posting a WR4 finish on 12 targets, 191 yards and 1 TD.

Collins is 3rd in the NFL in yards per route run (behind only Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk) and was targeted on a career high 42.9% of routes last week. He looks like a league-winner.

D’Andre Swift falls to RB15. Dynasty managers need to pray that Roger Goodell bans the tush push, as Jalen Hurts’ 12 rushing TDs severely cap Swift’s ceiling. Swift must rely on volume and explosive plays to become a true RB1 down the stretch. And now he’s injured.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

WAIVER WIRE

Running It Back

Ezekiel Elliott is expected to start Thursday with Rhamondre Stevenson dealing with an ankle sprain. Zeke had a season-high 21 touches vs. the Chargers, rushing for 50 yards and turning 4 receptions into 40 receiving yards. Because you might not have a better RB, you could start Zeke against the Steelers middling run defense this week. He’s looked good (video).

Antonio Gibson was the bellcow after Brian Robinson (hamstring) left in the first half. Gibson turned a season-high 14 touches into 72 scrimmage yards, while third-string rookie RB Chris Rodriguez saw only 11 snaps, per RotoBaller. Washington has a bye in Week 14, but if Robinson’s hamstring injury lingers it could transform Gibson into a valuable starter for the fantasy playoffs.

Tyjae Spears replaced a concussed Derrick Henry and received 20 touches, including 4 receptions, for 88 total yards. His day should’ve been bigger, but Spears was tripped up on a breakaway run just before the end zone.

We initially thought Spears was a must-start, but with King Henry somehow not in the concussion protocol and tracking to play, Spears remains an elite handcuff.

Kenneth Gainwell is worth adding after D’Andre Swift exited Sunday’s contest with an injury after a hit sent him to the quantum realm (video). “Gainwell’s 54 percent snap share marked his most since Week 1, while his 47 yards from scrimmage marked his third-most on the season”, per NBC Sports. He’s a “I need 6-8 points” guy. Nothing more.

Roschon Johnson had 75 yards on 15 touches in Chicago's win, “out-carrying, out-snapping and out-gaining Khalil Herbert,” per Andy Behrens of Yahoo. Expect the Bears to roll with a committee, but Johnson offers the most upside of the bunch.

DeeJay Dallas could be the last man standing in Seattle. “Ken Walker III (oblique) and Zach Charbonnet (knee) are both hurting, and if neither can go in Week 14 against San Francisco, Dallas figures to start. If even one is healthy, Dallas has little value, but all starting RBs can work as flexes,” per Matt Lutovsky of Sporting News.

• CIN RB Chase Brown (0.4%) looks to be the new backup to Joe Mixon. The rookie impressed last night, rushing for 61 yards on 9 carries (6.78 YPC).

• WAS RB Chris Rodriguez rushed seven times for 29 yards despite playing just 11 snaps. He’s a better match than Gibson for what the Commanders lost in Brian Robinson.

Please keep stashing:

• Keaton Mitchell

• Rico Dowdle

• D’Ernest Johnson

• Elijah Mitchell

• Ty Chandler

• Joshua Kelley

Wide Receiver

Elijah Moore was every fantasy analysts “my guy” for years. The still-just-23 year old has never lived up to expectations, but only because he’s rarely played with Joe Flacco. With Flacco at QB for the Browns, Moore saw 12 targets for a 27% share and led the NFL in Air Yards, per Adam Levitan. He finished with 83 yards and should’ve had another 20 (catch called back by penalty).

Over his past two games, Moore has 21 targets and 383 air yards -- accounting for 26% of Cleveland's targets, per Jacob Gibbs. He’s a must-add, especially after Amari Cooper suffered a concussion. Just look at this route running 👇️ 

Noah Brown is a strong streamer with Tank Dell out for the season. Brown had huge games with Robert Woods missing in Week 9 and Nico Collins missing in Week 10. With Collins sliding into the WR1 role, Brown is expected to fill in for Collins (who was a top-20 WR in the role).

Jonathan Mingo now has 6 catches and 60+ yards in back to back games. He’s played above 92% of snaps since Week 5 and saw career-high usage in new interim HC Chris Tabor’s first game, a very promising sign. Mingo should also see a TD any week now, as he has the most targets in the NFL without a TD.

• Zay Jones is a weekly boom/bust WR4, even with CJ Beathard, if Christian Kirk misses time, per Jake Ciely of The Athletic.

• Curtis Samuel is the Commanders go-to WR. In Week 13, Samuel accounted for more than half of Sam Howell’s passing yards. With the Commanders defense a revolving door, expect Samuel to continue to produce.

• Parker Washington caught six targets for 61 yards and a touchdown in Week 13 and should see increased opportunities with Kirk potentially missing time.

QB & TE

QB Gardner Minshew is coming off back-to-back games of over 40 pass attempts and has been a top-13 QB both weeks. He has some decent upcoming matchups against Cincy, Atlanta, and Vegas. He’s scored 10 or more fantasy points in eight consecutive games including four with 18 or more points, per Eric Moody of ESPN.

QB Desmond Ridder “was unhelpful for fantasy purposes in a messy matchup with the Jets, but he's in a much friendlier spot this week against Tampa Bay. The Bucs defense ranks 29th against the pass on the season, allowing the fifth most fantasy points to opposing QBs,” per Andy Behrens of Yahoo.

TE Brevin Jordan started for the injured Dalton Schultz and caught 3 passes for 64 yards. With Tank Dell lost for the season and Schultz’s hamstring injury lingering, Jordan could see more work down the stretch.

TE Chigoziem Okonkwo “hasn’t been overly involved in the Tennesee offense this year, but… has seven catches for 107 yards over the past two weeks. The Titans also lost Josh Whyle, who was occasionally subbing in for Chig, to a knee injury in Week 13,” per Kyle Dvorchak of NBCSports.

• QB Jake Browning looked great in last night’s shootout and could be an emergency streamer the next couple weeks (@ home vs. Indy and Minnesota).

• QB Jameis Winston should start in place of Derek Carr, who suffered his 2nd concussion in a month. He offers more upside than Carr and could air it out against Carolina on Sunday.

• TE Zach Ertz is worth stashing. He’s a free agent who could end up with the Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, or Eagles - but the Ravens are looking less likely after Harbaugh said they are happy with their TEs.

DEEP DIVES

Is Joe Flacco (still) Elite?

CLE QB Joe Flacco (2.5%) looked good in his Browns debut, throwing for 254 yards with 2 TDs, good for 16.16 fantasy points. While it’s possible the team goes back to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson (once he clears concussion protocol), Flacco’s still worth a flyer in Superflex/2QB leagues against a Jaguars defense that made Jake Browning look like an MVP candidate.

IND WR Alec Pierce (1.4%) had a career high 100 yards on Sunday, including a 55 yard reception and a 36 yard TD. Although he’s a boom-or-bust player, he’s a young and explosive deep threat who could develop into high-ceiling FLEX play.

HOU WRs Robert Woods (9.3%), John Metchie III (0.6%), and Xavier Hutchinson (0.0%) should all see a bump in their roles following Tank Dell’s injury. Woods is the safe pick, but Metchie is the most intriguing, as he was an excellent prospect at Alabama before suffering injuries and battling leukemia.

GB RB Patrick Taylor (3%) had a big run against the Chiefs but barely saw the field (31% of snaps). Given the injuries in the Packers’ RB room, Taylor is worth considering as a deep stash.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read 6 Questions After Week 13 ($) by KC Joyner of The Athletic. KC explains why Jordan Love is in must-start territory.

“He is fifth in quarterback PPG since Week 11. Love ranks second only to Dak Prescott in vertical PPG in that time frame and is fifth in short pass PPG. Love is also tied with Prescott and Stafford for the league lead in red zone touchdown passes over the past three weeks (7)”.

📖 Read Sunday Aftermath by Patrick Daugherty of NBC Sports. Patrick dives into some of the biggest storylines from this past week as well as injury updates and waiver wire looks.

📖 Read The Market Report by Fantasy Points staff. They are massively downgrading Austin Ekeler, who is barely an RB2.

“Ekeler carried 14 times for a season-low 18 yards, adding just 2 catches for 9 yards receiving. This is the third time since Ekeler’s return from the injury that he’s failed to reach even 2.0 YPC”.

🎙️Listen to Beyond the Boxscore by the Fantasy Football Podcast from CBS Sports. They dive into how best to use your bench for the fantasy playoffs (at 45:30).

🎙️Listen to Week 13 Instant Reaction by the Rotowire Fantasy Football Podcast. Immediate takeaways from an injury-filled week.

📺️ Watch the Miami Dolphins create their iconic roller coaster TD celebration.

CREATOR

Amelia Probst

In this series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Amelia Probst (@AmeliaProbst) is a Data Scientist at PFF and works behind the scenes on fantasy and mock draft tools. She’s the offensive line data guru, writing her first PFF article on offensive line volatility — working to demystify an under-researched position to quantify the performance of an individual and the success of a unit.

Amelia has a weekly series on NFL QB Rankings and team Power Rankings where she uses a complicated-sounding method called Bayesian updating to project how QBs will perform in EPA and play grading.

No bias, just facts.

If you’re interested in learning more, read Amelia’s NFL Week 13 Analytical Quarterback Ranking, which highlights Dak Prescott’s performance in Week 12:

Tweet of the Day

Before we go, send your well wishes to anyone who actually watched the Chargers beat the Patriots 6-0 in the rain. That could barely be classified as professional football.

See you Thursday.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

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