Good morning. Yesterday was a Saturday with NFL football, which means my girlfriend sacrificed "quality time" because “winning titles always has a cost”, and I had a lot riding on Ty Chandler as a borderline must-start.

Good news to start your day: Minnesota Vikings DL Harrison Phillips was named Week 15 NFLPA Community MVP after handing out gifts to over 450 families across three states.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

D.J. Moore rises to WR8. He’s been a top-10 WR in each of the last 5 games that Justin Fields has played full time, per Derek Brown of FantasyPros. If you only account for his games with Fields, he’d also be tied for 1st in the NFL in first read target share, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points. He’s having a career year in Chicago as Fields’ clear go-to guy.

Josh Downs falls to WR48. After a promising start to the season, Downs has seen his usage plummet as of late. He hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 9 and only surpassed 100 yards once this season. Even with Michael Pittman going down yesterday, Downs failed to capitalize. He’s fine as a dynasty asset, but belongs on benches for the fantasy playoffs.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

START EM SIT EM

Quarterback

Start Matthew Stafford. “The past four QBs against Washington have scored at least 23.3 fantasy points, and 11 QBs have scored at least 20.1 fantasy points against the Commanders this season. Stafford should be fantastic this week,” per Jamey Eisenberg of CBSSports.

Sit Tua Tagovailoa. He struggled in his Week 12 matchup against the Jets, finishing with just 9.8 fantasy points. And in the last five weeks, the Jets are allowing just 12.2 FPPG to QBs (3rd best in the NFL), per Mike Hicks of Dynasty Nerds. With Tyreek Hill also being a game time decision (ankle), it might be a good week to pivot off Tua if you have options.

Start Joe Flacco. “He isn’t a borderline QB1 like Stafford, but he may be the best streaming option available in your league. Flacco has 565 yards and five touchdowns in two starts while the Browns are throwing more, improving their pass rate over expected to 5% in Flacco’s two games, per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports.

Not sure about Kyler Murray. In four starts before the bye, Murray finished as fantasy’s QB13, QB6, QB10, and QB19. Now he faces a 49ers defense leading the league in sacks and forcing the 2nd-highest pressure rate (43%) since acquiring DE Chase Young, per Barfield of Fantasy Points. Still, Murray has 3 rushing TDs in his 4 games played since returning from injury and averages 17+ fantasy points in those games as well. He’ll need one to be startable.

• Stream Will Levis. He faces a Texans defense struggling in the secondary. Since Week 5, they’ve allowed 19.2 FPG to opposing QBs, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

• Start Sam Howell, who has finished as a top-12 QB in nine of his last 10.

Running Back

Start James Cook. “In three games since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, Cook has scored at least 16 PPR points against the Jets, Eagles and Chiefs. The best part is his role in the passing game with 14 catches for 169 yards and two touchdowns on 16 targets,” per Jamey Eisenberg of CBSSports. 

Sit D’Onta Foreman. “It’s a tough setup this week against a Browns defense allowing just 3.5 yards per play at home this season — nearly a full yard lower than the next best defense. The Browns are yielding the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs this year, so Foreman is a bench candidate,” per Dalton Del Don of Yahoo.

Consider Chuba Hubbard. In two games under interim HC Chris Tabor, the Panthers have given 25 and 23 carries to Hubbard. His 78% snap rate last week marked a season-high. Hubbard is in play as a volume-based RB2/FLEX, but has a tough matchup against a Falcons team that has not allowed a rushing TD to an RB all year, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

Start Breece Hall. In his last four, Hall is averaging eight targets, 6.5 receptions, and 47.3 receiving yards per game. His pass-game involvement keeps him relevant as an RB2 with RB1 upside. Hall’s floor for touches over his last nine games is 14 with a ceiling of 25, per Evan Silva of Establish the Run.

• Start Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott has had back-to-back season-high snap rates (69%, 91%), which he translated into finishes of 11.2 and 23.5 fantasy points. He faces a Chiefs defense ranking No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.018), per Matt Freedman of Fantasy Life.

• Sit Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH barely outsnapped Jerick McKinnon last week (32-30), while McKinnon got the goal-line TD. Facing a Patriots defense stifling RBs (league-low 3.2 YPC), avoid CEH.

Wide Receiver

Start Jayden Reed. “Reed saw a career-high 10 targets last week and has emerged as Green Bay’s No. 1 wide receiver. He’s also recorded 10 rush attempts since Week 9 (scoring twice) and ranks top 20 in fantasy points per route run this season.”

“The Packers get a reeling Tampa Bay defense that’s allowed the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the slot, where Reed has run 73% of his routes. With Christian Watson possibly missing another game with a hamstring injury, Reed is a top-25 WR this week,” per Dalton Del Don of Yahoo. Reed (ankle) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game.

Start Odell Beckham Jr. His elite role (21% target share and 35% air yards share) combined with a more pass-heavy Ravens offense (3% higher than expected) and a matchup against a Jacksonville team allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, the numbers say Beckham should be in lineups, per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports.

Sit Chris Godwin. “In his last six games, he’s averaged just 8.1 fantasy PPG. He has not topped 60 yards or scored a receiving touchdown in any of those games. The floor is just entirely too low, and if we’re being honest, the ceiling isn’t much higher. He has two games all year with more than 15 fantasy points. I wouldn’t bank on that changing against the Packers, who have allowed the eighth-fewest yards and third-fewest fantasy PPG to WRs,” per Michael F. Florio of NFL.com.

Start Mike Evans. Coming off a tough matchup against Falcons CB AJ Terrell, Evans gets a bounce back opportunity against a Packers team playing the 3rd-most single high safety coverage (62.8%); Evans averages 3.20 yards per route run (WR7) vs. 1-high safety looks.

• Sit Elijah Moore. Moore earned a lowly 15% target share in Week 14. He is a desperation WR4 for Week 15, per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports.

• Stream Zay Jones. Christian Kirk got hurt early in Week 13, meaning the Jags have played two full games without him. In those two games, Jones has seen 21 targets for a whopping 362 air yards. That’s legit WR1 usage, per Jonathan Fuller of Fantasy Life.

Tight End

Start Jake Ferguson. “Ferguson ranks second among all pass-catchers in targets inside the 20 and the 10; he’s seen the most targets (nine) inside the five-yard line in the league this year. He’s a top-five fantasy tight end in a Dallas offense surging since its bye,” per Dalton Del Don of Yahoo.

Sit Hunter Henry. “Henry scored two TDs on Thursday Night Football, but he only had three targets. He has single-digit points in every game without a touchdown and fewer than six in all but one of those. The Chiefs have given up just three touchdowns to tight ends and rank among the top six stingiest defenses when it comes to yards allowed to the position, both on the season and since Week 10,” per Michael F. Florio of NFL.com.

Start Dalton Schultz. With Nico Collins likely out and Tank Dell on IR, Schultz leads the remaining Houston receivers in all stats this year. The Texans also get a solid matchup with the Titans; Tennessee ranks 30th in both EPA per dropback and passing success rate allowed, per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports.

• Start Taysom Hill, who is averaging 10.2 touches for 64.6 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game over his last six appearances.

• Drop Juwan Johnson, who hasn’t topped 50 yards in a game this year and competes with Taysom Hill for looks.

INJURY/STASH REPORT

🚀 Stash:

1. Zay Jones

2. Demario Douglas

3. Robert Woods: there’s plenty of opportunity in the Texans WR room with Collins banged up and Dell on IR.

4. Parker Washington: Two TDs in two games for the rookie WR who has averaged a 60% snap share in games without Christian Kirk.

5. Darius Slayton: Still only 26, the NYG WR played 93% of snaps in Week 14. He’s not startable this week, but faces a beatable Eagles secondary in Week 16.

👀 Monitor:

1. Chris Olave, listed as questionable for Sunday due to an ankle injury, is a game time decision for Sunday’s matchup against the Giants.

2. Chris Godwin is a game time decision despite practicing in full on Friday. Godwin was a game-time decision last week, but played and earned a season-high 39% of the targets.

3. Cardinals’ WRs Marquise Brown (heel) and Michael Wilson (neck), both listed as questionable for Sunday, are expected to play vs. the 49ers, per Adam Schefter.

💩 Russell Wilson was in HC Sean Payton’s doghouse last night 👇️ 

BEST BETS

🥇 Kyler Murray under 32.5 rushing yards (-120)

Kyler is averaging just 26.5 rushing yards since returning from injury this season and has rushed for 22 yards total in his past two games. Teams attempt the 3rd most passes against the 49ers and the 49ers should use a spy against Kyler to prevent any big runs. The game script should be in favor of Arizona passing the ball often with the 49ers as big favorites.

🥈 Matthew Stafford over 267.5 passing yards (-115)

Stafford has averaged 267 yards over his past 3 games but gets a dream matchup against the Commanders defense allowing the most passing yards in the NFL. Opposing QBs have gone over this number versus Washington in 8/10 past games. We’re betting Stafford keeps his hot play going in a game that has the highest expected point total in Sunday’s slate (50.5).

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose. 2023 record 8-12 (1-1 last week).

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Hansen’s Hints: 2023 Week 15 by John Hansen of Fantasy Points. He gives his analysis on every matchup in Week 15.

📖 Read Dynasty Football 2024 Free Agency ($) by Jeff Haverlack of The Athletic. With so many RBs entering free agency this off-season, it is important to consider the impact of landing spots and future value. Jeff explains how he makes dynasty decisions given uncertainty.

📖 Read Three WR/CB matchups to Target and Avoid by Nic Bodiford of PFF. A surprising player Nick makes the argument to target is Gabe Davis vs Cowboys CBs Daron Bland and Stephon Gilmore 👀 

“Among qualifying perimeter cornerbacks, Bland ranks outside the top 55 in both yards allowed per coverage snap (1.48) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (4.0%), while Gilmore ranks 38th or worse in both respective categories, allowing 1.14 and 2.8% rates.” Davis remains boom or bust, with a better chance to boom than expected.

🎙️Listen to Week 15 Preview by the Rotoworld Football Show podcast. They discuss if the rumors are true that Bill Belichick’s days are numbered with the Patriots (0:40).

🎙️Listen to Can We Trust the Jets? by the Fantasy Life podcast. They touch on whether we can start Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson (7:24), which Baltimore pass-catcher we can start (2:05), whether Jayden Reed is a WR2 this week (38:25) and more.

📺️ Watch the best of Week 14 Mic’d Up 👇️ 

Tweet of the Day

Go off Mrs. Higgins! Did her son have the catch of the year yesterday?

Good luck in your playoff game.

And remember: if Aidan O’Connell’s Raiders can put up 63 points, your 6th seed fantasy team can win it all.

Thanks for a great season so far, let’s take home some titles.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean