Good morning. It was fun to read the responses to Tuesday’s poll on whether it was right to call Kadarius Toney offside.

Best idea: “The big issue is they let the play go. Maybe the rule change needs to be that if a player on offense is offside, then once the QB snaps the ball the play is blown dead. We blow a play dead for false starts, so why not for an offensive player lined up in the neutral zone?” - Christian L.(Toney was offside)

Chiefs fan: “I don’t need your logic, thanks. ” - Alex B. (Not offside)

We know one fan who won’t be happy.

Good news: Fantasy football playoffs kick off tonight! Lets go!!

Bad news: We’ll be watching a Chargers team without Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen against a Raiders team led by Aidan O’Connell that might be without Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Khalil Herbert falls to RB51. With D’Onta Foreman back in the lineup, Herbert played just 17% of snaps — behind both Foreman and Roschon Johnson (per Next Gen Stats). Herbert seems like the odd man out in Chicago’s committee. Doubt he adds much value the finals weeks. Droppable.

Zay Flowers rises to WR26. In games without Mark Andrews, Flowers is averaging 20.3 PPR points per game and an elite 33.1% target share (per @LateRoundQB). He’s emerging as a big play threat in Baltimore’s improved passing offense.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

Dynasty Rankings

No rookie has climbed as high as C.J. Stroud in Superflex Dynasty value. Graph below shows which rookies gained value through the season (starting point is July rankings, end point is as of December 13).

STRONG PLAYS

Start Your Studs

It’s difficult to go back once you’ve be burned. Just ask anyone who drafted Kyle Pitts or any of the ex-girlfriends who never return my calls. But you need to #StartYourStuds this time of year.

QB Jalen Hurts scored 8.8 points last week against the vaunted Dallas defense. He will look to bounce back against a Seahawks defense that is BOTTOM 10 when it comes to stopping opposing fantasy QBs, per @jbchoknows.

WR Stefon Diggs managers, keep rolling. With the emergence of Dalton Kincaid, a new OC and an uptick in receiving usage for James Cook, Diggs has seen his average depth of target drop from 11.6 yards in Weeks 1-8 to just 7.9 yards in Weeks 9-14 (per Kate Magdziuk of PFF). With his targets per game and deep target % also dropping, it’s clear his ceiling may no longer be what it once was.

Regardless, Diggs has 22 targets in his last two games. Even if he’s less likely to post Top-5 numbers, Diggs is still a Top-10 option.

WR Justin Jefferson (chest) told reporters he expects to play in Week 15 against the Bengals. Hospital tests revealed that the injury was just a bruise. He’s too good to keep out of lineups whenever healthy.

Once Justin Herbert left the game in Week 14, Austin Ekeler had a 20.8% target share. Easton Stick checked the ball down at the 5th highest rate in the NFL this past week. Expect a heavy dose of Ekeler.

WR DJ Moore is top-tier whenever Justin Fields plays. He’s averaging 21.3 FPPG with Fields this season vs. just 9.8 without his QB (per @LateRoundQB). Moore has finished as the WR5, WR2, WR6, WR9, and WR3 in his last 5 starts with Fields (per Derek Brown of FantasyPros).

Prep to Start

Keep starting Zack Moss. “Moss has 38 of 41 running back carries for Indianapolis and has run a pass route on 70 percent of the team’s drop backs (while seeing ten targets). You simply cannot bench that sort of fantasy profile,” per Denny Carter of NBCSports. He hasn’t been the late season spark his managers hoped for, but he’s due for some positive regression.

He also had a TD that would have made his day look so much better (called back due to penalty). Jonathan Taylor (thumb) has not practiced and will miss at least one more game.

Najee Harris has a great matchup against the Colts. Harris has averaged 14.5 carries in his last six games and is the RB21 in that span. He faces a Colts defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to RBs, which both Joe Mixon and Chase Brown each had over 100 scrimmage yards and a TD against last week, per Lawrence Jackson Jr. of NBC Sports.

You’ll want D’Andre Hopkins in your lineup. Hopkins averages an insane 6.21 YPRR (1st in NFL) against Cover 4, and faces a Texans team playing Cover 4 at the 4th-highest rate in the league. Plus the Titans will wear their throwback baby blue Oilers uniforms against the Texans on Sunday 👀

David Njoku’s stock keeps rising. Since Week 7, Njoku is the TE7 in FPPG (13.5), while finishing top-5 at the position in expected FPPG (16.0), targets per game (8.4), and target share (21.8%), per Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points. With Joe Flacco igniting Cleveland’s passing offense, more spike weeks are to come for Njoku.

Sneaky Starts at QB & D/ST

Quarterbacks

1. Matthew Stafford (WAS, NO, NYG): Faces the worst secondary in the league in Week 15.

2. Jake Browning (MIN, PIT, KC): The Bengals have changed their offense to help Browning - it’s working. The play-action heavy gameplan has led to an impressive few starts.

3. Gardner Minshew (PIT, ATL, LV): The Colts play fast and have not hesitated to throw the ball. They will be in a dome for all three weeks.

4. Joe Flacco (CHI, ARI, ATL): The Browns are letting Flacco air it out; the Bears aren’t an ideal matchup but Flacco offers a higher floor than most.

5. Nick Mullens (CIN, DET, GB): Mullens has played well in a limited sample in the NFL and faces the Bengals, Lions and Packers defenses gives up big plays.

D/ST Starts

1. Chiefs @ Patriots

2. Falcons @ Panthers

3. Saints vs Giants

4. Dolphins vs Jets

5. Rams vs Commanders: Howell still leads the leagues in sacks taken and the Commanders’ pass-happy offense offers plenty of sack and interception opportunities, per Jack Miller of Establish the Run.

D/ST Stash

1. Jets (Commanders, Browns): Facing the Dolphins this week, a short-sighted manager might drop them.

2. Broncos (Patriots, Chargers): The Broncos defense has been on fire lately and has ranked 4th in EPA allowed per play since the 70 point game, per RBSDM.

3. Bills (Chargers, Patriots)

4. Texans (Browns, Titans)

5. Jaguars (Panthers Week 17)

Avoid This Week

Be careful with your Dolphins exposure. The Dolphins injury report is frightening, including LT Terron Armstead (knee/ankle), OT/C Liam Eichenberg (calf), and OG Robert Hunt (hamstring). The Dolphins also put starting center Connor Williams on the IR earlier this week.

The Dolphins may be down multiple starting offensive linemen against a strong Jets defensive line, in a game with potential 18-21 MPH sustained winds and rain.

• De’Von Achane (toe) and Tyreek Hill (toe) both missed practice on Wednesday. While they are expected to play, both could be without their signature explosiveness.

Be skeptical of Jake Browning. His last two starts have been incredibly impressive, but 202 of his 275 passing yards last week came after the catch (per Denny Carter of NBCSports).

Aside from the regression argument, he also goes from back-to-back favorable matchups (JAX & IND) to 3 tougher opponents in the fantasy playoffs (MIN, PIT & KC). Only start Browning if you have to.

JuJu Smith-Schuster posted 90 yards on four catches, but should be on your bench (or waivers) if Demario Douglas returns - Douglas (concussion) returned to practice Wednesday. JuJu is also limited by an ankle injury. Avoid.

INJURY REPORT

What Happens In Vegas

Davante Adams (illness) and Josh Jacobs (knee) are both listed as questionable for tonights Raiders vs. Chargers tilt. Adams is a competitor and expected to play, as players rarely sit with an illness. But with nothing left to play for outside of pride, there isn’t much incentive for Adams to play.

• If Adams sits, Jakobi Meyers would expect to see a massive role as the best offensive weapon for expected starter Aidan O’Connell. The Athletic’s Vic Tafur believes it’s “likely” O’Connell is benched for Jimmy Garoppolo if he struggles in Week 15.

• If Jacobs sits, Zamir White will draw the start as an RB3 with Ameer Abdullah registering as a low-end FLEX option in PPR leagues, per NBC Sports.

Keenan Allen (heel) will not play in Week 15. With Justin Herbert out for the year, the Chargers’ season is over with just under a month left. Because of that, there was no reason for the team to rush Allen back. Chargers fans are taking it well.

• WRs Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis should seen extended opportunities with Easton Stick behind center for the Chargers.

• The preferred target is WR Josh Palmer, who is a borderline must-start.

Ja’Marr Chase (ankle) said he expects to play in Week 15 against the Vikings. He missed Tuesday’s practice but got a limited session in Wednesday. On a shortened week (Saturday game), it makes sense for the Bengals to give Chase a reduced practice schedule.

Nico Collins is feeling better and wants to play on Sunday against the Titans, but considering he also battled calf issues earlier in November, there is a possibility that this injury could cause him to miss at least one week, per NBC Sports.

Brian Robinson (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday. Robinson was injured in the second quarter in Week 13, so missing practices after a bye week is a red flag. There’s a chance that he’s unable to play this weekend.

Antonio Gibson would likely handle all of the pass-catching responsibilities while handling a few carries, while Chris Rodriguez would operate as the early-down and short yardage back. Given the Commanders are expected to lose, we’ll likely see more Gibson.

Aaron Jones (knee) was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. It’s entirely possible that he’ll suit up on Sunday against the Bucs defense dealing with multiple injuries on their defensive line. Jones could be a sneaky RB2.

• Chris Olave (ankle) did not practice Wednesday.

• Rashid Shaheed and Taysom Hill both returned for the Saints. If Hill plays, he’s a Top-12 TE option.

• Dalton Schultz (hamstring) is trending towards returning in Week 15 against the Titans. He’s a must-start with Tank Dell out for the season and both Nico Collins and Noah Brown banged up.

• Giants TE Darren Waller (hamstring) is “hopeful” to be activated this week. The Giants are just one game out of a Wild Card spot with Tommy Devito at QB.

RB Handcuffs

Ian Hartitz’s handcuffs who are probably just one injury away from being at least a top-30 RB (like Zamir White tonight):

• Tyler Allgeier (49% rostered on Yahoo)

• Tyjae Spears (45%)

• Miles Sanders (43%)

• Kenneth Gainwell (29%)

• Chase Brown (16%)

• Rico Dowdle (11%)

• D’Ernest Johnson (7%)

• Jordan Mason (2%) or Elijah Mitchell (if healthy): Mitchell (knee) was limited in Wednesday’s practice, a positive sign after he missed all of last week.

• Chase Edmonds (1%)

Unsure what to do with Texans RBs? Bet on Devin Singletary if you expect Houston to lose (they are expected to lose by 2 points this weekend) or Dameon Pierce when they are winning.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read the Top-50 2024 NFL Free Agent List by Brad Spielberger of PFF. Headlined by the Chief’s Chris Jones, this class also includes Kirk Cousins, Michael Pittman, Tee Higgins and Mike “1,000 Yards” Evans.

📖 Read What is a Hip-Drop Tackle and will the NFL and NFLPA agree to Ban It? by Ted Nguyen of The Athletic. Ted explains the controversial topic of banning these type of tackles that lead to injury 25x more than other tackles.

📖 Read The Everything Report: 2023 Week 15 by Scott Barrett from Fantasy Points. He touches on Khalil Shakir being irrelevant with Dawson Knox back, concerns with Travis Etienne, Jake Browning being a prime regression candidate and more.

🎙️Listen to Team-by-Team Week 15 Preview by Establish The Run. They dive into their weekly rankings, projections for every player, league winners and the long list of injury reports.

🎙️Listen to Quarterback Mania! by the Fantasy Football Today Dynasty podcast. They rank their top 12 dynasty QB’s, which QB’s to trust for the upcoming playoff stretch and deep waiver wire targets.

📺️ Watch Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy discuss the workload between his two RBs. Looks like it will be closer to a split backfield with Rico Dowdle, rather than Tony Pollard dominating touches.

Tweet of the Day

Yes, this is real.

Before we go, send your well wishes to those who are stuck starting a backup QB in their playoff matchup:

Speaking of which… try to enjoy Easton Stick vs. any combination of Aidan O’Connell, Jimmy G, and Brian Hoyer tonight. Let’s pray somebody at least scores a TD.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

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