Good morning. It’s time…

Time to neglect work, postpone starting a family and prep those waiver claims. “Leagues are won in these three weeks”, I kept telling her as she took the kids and left in my Honda Civic.

Good news: Joe Burrow is great on and off the field. He gifted teammate Jake Browning’s family box seats for Sunday’s game against the Colts. Browning detailed his path to success with the Bengals in this conversation with Peter King.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

📉 Patrick Mahomes falls to QB5. Only one top-10 QB finish in his last six games and thrown for over 300 yards three times this season (Sam Howell has done it five times). Mahomes is struggling without OC Eric Bieniemy, posting the worst statistical output of his career.

📈 Deebo Samuel rises to WR13. He’s the WR2 since returning from injury five weeks ago, averaging 23.4 FPPG and scoring 7 TDs (per @17gamepace). His volume is inconsistent, but Deebo can take it to the house whenever he touches the ball.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

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WAIVER WIRE

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott is the obvious must-add, but already held. With Rhamondre Stevenson out, Elliott handled 29 of 30 backfield touches, generating 140 total yards and a touchdown.

Ty Chandler is next man up in Minnesota. Yes, Alexander Mattison (ankle) could miss multiple weeks. Chandler has been the better RB and has a favorable Week 15 matchup against a Bengals run defense that ranks 29th in DVOA. Here’s your chance to roster a potential league-winning flex play, stats per Pat Fitzmaurice of FantasyPros. Chandler took every RB snap after Mattison left in Week 14.

Chase Brown “is bringing a big-play ability to the Bengals offense, and he's been a nice change of pace for Joe Mixon. He looks like one of the must-have RB handcuffs right now, because if anything happens to Mixon, Brown looks like a potential [league winner 👀],” per Chris Towers of CBSSports. We’ve had him listed for weeks.

Zamir White could start in a Thursday night matchup with the Chargers. Josh Jacobs sustained an injury on Sunday and was in considerable pain upon going down. “Given the quick turnaround, we should probably plan for his absence,” per Andy Behrens of Yahoo.

• But don’t break the bank, as Zamir White is expected to handle early downs while Ameer Abdullah catches the passes and plays on third downs. Abdullah is a deep league, PPR streamer.

• After Jacobs went down in the 4th qtr:

  - Abdullah 4 of 6 snaps

  - Zamir White 2 of 6 snaps

Jerick McKinnon only logged 7 touches but saw a season high 45% of snaps. He was in on the majority of the Chief’s short down and distance snaps, as well as the 2-minute drill plus long down and distance snaps.

“As was the case when he took over near the end of 2022, McKinnon’s snap total and touch counts will be limited, but his efficiency will break charts,” per Kyle Dvorchak of NBCSports.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 13 touches for 68 scoreless yards. While he’s likely to get more volume than McKinnon, his lack of receiving work and limited red zone usage make him less valuable. CEH is worth an add as a high floor FLEX option with Pacheco injured.

• D’Onta Foreman returned from injury to lead Chicago’s backfield with 13 touches (compared to 3 for Khalil Herbert and 1 for Roschon Johnson). Foreman could be a high-volume FLEX.

• Rico Dowdle handled double-digit carries for the second time this season and vultured a short TD. He doesn’t need to overtake Pollard to have value.

Keep stashing:

• Keaton Mitchell

• Tyjae Spears

• Elijah Mitchell

• Antonio Gibson

• D’Ernest Johnson

• Joshua Kelley

• Chase Edmonds

• Kenneth Gainwell

Wide Receiver

Zay Jones “didn't produce a particularly helpful fantasy line on Sunday (5-29-0), but he did see a team-high 14 targets from a hobbled Trevor Lawrence. With Christian Kirk on IR, Jones could see plenty of volume,” per Andy Behrens of Yahoo.

Odell Beckham Jr. had an impressive “23.2% target share, 97 receiving yards and a score. He played 54% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps, his highest snap count since Week 8. Beckham is healthy and shining during crunch-time,” per Pat Fitzmaurice of FantasyPros. OBJ has an elite 2.8 yards per route run over the last month of the season (Davis Mattek).

Curtis Samuel “was on bye last week, forcing some fantasy managers to part ways. Even after resting for a week and scoring no points, Samuel is the highest-scoring FLEX player who is active and available in over half of all Yahoo leagues,” per Kyle Dvorchak of NBCSports.

With Tank Dell on IR and Nico Collins banged up, Noah Brown is a must-add. “[He] was inactive in Weeks 11 and 12, but in Weeks 8-10, Brown finished with 19 targets, 16 receptions, and 382 yards. He scored 7.2, 24.3, and 20.7 half-PPR points in those 3 contests,” per Robert Lorge of Roto Baller.

• Robert Woods is worth an add, too. He started the year with five straight games of 6+ targets before Dell and Collins emerged as Stroud’s go-to guys. Dell and Collins are injured.

• Jalin Hyatt “delivered the first 100-yard performance of his career ahead of last week's bye and is a potential big-play machine. When we reach Week 16, he faces the Eagles' leaky pass defense, an obvious blow-up spot for the rookie,” per Andy Behrens of Yahoo.

• Josh Palmer could return. After Mike Williams went on IR, Palmer averaged just over 7 targets, 4 receptions, and 84 yards per game, per Robert Lorge of Roto Baller. He’s a FLEX option with Quentin Johnston struggling.

QB & TE

Jake Browning “is averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game across three starts. Browning ranks first in completion percent over expected over the past three weeks,” per Kyle Dvorchak of NBCSports. But he’s got a brutal matchup against the Vikings in Week 15, so grab another QB for this week.

Matthew Stafford is on fire. “As it turns out, having Kyren Williams and Cooper Kupp both on the field alongside Puka Nacua is a recipe for success. Since Williams returned in Week 12, Stafford has thrown 10 TDs in 3 games. Prior to that, he had thrown 9 over the entire season. He’s scored 23.4, 23.0 and 23.7 fantasy points in those three games,” per Matt Okada of NFL.com.

Desmond Ridder “has 11 starts this year and has [shockingly] finished as a QB1 five times [probably because he has 5 rushing TDs]. With as many 300-yard games as Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert this year, the occasional passing spike week plus his rushing production keep Ridder in the middle of the QB2 ranks for Week 15,” per Kyle Dvorchak of NBCSports.

• Joe Flacco has stepped up in Cleveland. “In Flacco’s last 2 starts, the Browns have averaged 44.5 pass attempts per game,” per Dan Fornek of Roto Baller. His teammates love him (video). Is Flacco still the 17th best QB in the league?

Dawson Knox “returned from IR for Buffalo, catching all three of his targets on Sunday for 36 yards. He's obviously a Josh Allen favorite and a good bet to make at least one house call (and possibly more) in the fantasy playoffs,” per Andy Behrens of Yahoo.

Cade Otton “ran a route on 90 percent of his team’s dropbacks and caught two balls for 16 yards and a score. Otton has at least four catches or a touchdown in six of his previous seven games,” per Kyle Dvorchak of NBCSports.

• Isaiah Likely shouldn’t be available but is a must-add if so. He had 19.3 fantasy points and faces a Jaguars defense that ranks in the top 12 in fantasy points per game allowed to TEs this season.

• Hunter Henry had a huge game last Thursday (40 yards, 2 TDs) and will face a Broncos defense in Week 16 that has allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends.

DEEP DIVES

Diving for Demarcus

The idea is you pick up players the week before everyone adds them off the waiver wire. Last week, the perfect pickups were Chase Brown and Zamir White.

LAR WR Demarcus Robinson (0.1%) “caught 3 of Matthew Stafford's passes on Sunday, finishing with 46 yards and one score. He was targeted a whopping 10 times against the Ravens, a promising sign. The Rams have a layup matchup ahead against the Commanders, which keeps every LA WR on the fantasy radar," per Andy Behrens of Yahoo.

LAR TE Davis Allen (0.0%) made the most of his opportunity, bringing in 4 of 5 targets for 50 yards and a TD. If Higbee’s injury lingers, the 6’6” rookie could continue to see targets.

SF RB Jordan Mason (1.0%) might be a handcuff of a handcuff, but he’s still an intriguing stash. Elijah Mitchell can never stay healthy, so it’s no surprise that he’s battling a knee injury. Mason has averaged nearly 6 YPC over the last two seasons and should produce if a path were to emerge for him.

IND RB Trey Sermon (1.8%) hasn’t shown much in his NFL career, but with Jonathan Taylor out for the time being, he’s the defacto handcuff in Indy. If anything were to happen to Zach Moss, Sermon could be worth a spot-start in your FLEX.

GB RB Patrick Taylor had 7.2 ppr points in Week 14 and continued to impress in limited touches. With AJ Dillon struggling, Taylor could see his role grow if Aaron Jones misses more time.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read JJ Zachariason’s Data Dump Thread for Week 14. Three gems:

• George Pickens has been under a 20% target share in every game without Matt Canada.

• Bijan Robinson played 77% of Atlanta's offensive snaps today. He's now finished as an RB1 in 3 of his last 4 games. Arthur Smith… gets it?

• After watching his workload drop in Week 13, Devin Singletary saw a better one in Week 14, carrying 68% of Houston's running back rushes (was 33% last week). His snap share rose by about 11%.

📖 Read This Season Is Officially Off The Rails by Peter Overzet of Fantasy Life. In addition to all the injuries that took place in Week 14, Peter also touches on the worst game of recent memory (Vikings vs. Raiders), vintage Lamar Jackson, and Deebo Samuel continuing his hot play.

📖 Read Dynasty Risers & Fallers by Chad Workman of FantasyPros. Rashee Rice appears to have solidified himself as the Chiefs top WR, while Khalil Herbert’s dynasty value continues to fall.

🎙️Listen to Jerry Jeudy is Nelson Agholor by the Fantasy Points Podcast. They recap each game of Week 14 and dive into the key takeaways for playoff matchups.

🎙️Listen to Week 14 Studs & Duds + The Goose Kings by The Fantasy Footballers Podcast. They recap everything that happened in Week 14, including Stefon Diggs continuing to struggle despite the Bills playing well enough to beat the Chiefs.

📺️ Watch Dan Orlovsky from ESPN break down the infamous offensive offside call from the final drive of Sunday’s Bills vs. Chiefs game. Do you agree with Dan?

Tweet of the Day

Kadarius Toney is the Jordan Poole of the NFL.

Before we go, send your well wishes to anyone who paid real money to watch the Vikings’ 3-0 win over the Raiders. 🤮 

No better way to wrap up a weekend in Vegas than to watch a 3-0 NFL game.

Since 2008, NFL teams are now 1-256 when scoring three or fewer points. The one win is Sunday's Vikings win over the Raiders, per @TheAthletic.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus

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