Good morning to everyone except NFL schedule makers, who gave the holidays no chance. We’ve got a Thursday night game, two Saturday games, a packed Sunday and three games throughout the day on Monday.

At least the bastards put a skippable Patriots and Broncos matchup on Sunday night (Christmas Eve)… which they know we‘ll watch every minute of.

Our schedule: It’s been an epic season! We only have a few newsletters left before a long break until April. As a reminder, this is our yearly schedule:

1. 3x per week for the NFL season until Week 17 (Tues-Thurs-Sun)

2. No emails from January until April

3. 1x per week in April for the NFL draft (each Monday)

4. No emails from May until August

5. 3x per week in August (Mon-Wed-Fri)

It’s *chefs kiss* 👌 

TRIVIA

START/SITS FOR WEEK 16

Quarterback

Start Dak Prescott against the Dolphins. Prescott posted just 6.1 points in a blowout loss to the Bills but should revert to form in a potential shootout in Miami. The opening Vegas total for this contest was 51, the highest of the weekend.

Start Justin Fields against a Cardinals defense that “has surrendered nine touchdown passes and an average of nearly 20 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks”, per Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated.

Sit Jared Goff, who faces a tough Vikings defense on the road. Goff typically struggles in road games (exhibit 322: Goff has just 4.4 points in his last road game, compared to 31.1 in his last home game) and Vikings DC Brian Flores has historically been successful at stopping Goff (per Purple Persuasion):

• Feb 2019: Flores was LB Coach for the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They held Goff to just a 50% completion rate and 57.9 passer rating.

• Nov 2020: Flores is the Miami defensive playcaller and held Goff to a PFF overall grade of 37.1 on 2 INTs and 2 fumbles lost.

Start Baker Mayfield, who has impressed lately and faces a Jaguars defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks,” per Eric Moody of ESPN.

Drop Sam Howell in a “tough matchup against a Jets defense that allows the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs at 13.4 this season”, per Derek Tate of Pro Football Network. He’s too risky to trust this late in the season.

Stream Jake Browning against a Steelers team that Gardner Minshew (215/3 passing) and Bailey Zappe (240/3) torched over the last two weeks, per Tom Brolley of Fantasy Points. Browning has three 20+ point performances since taking over for Burrow.

• Stash C.J. Beathard. “Trevor Lawrence entered the concussion protocol after Sunday night's loss, and Jacksonville plays Tampa Bay in a good passing game matchup in Week 16. A spot start for [backup] Beathard could be valuable”, per Jordan McNamara of FootballGuys.

Running Back

What a season for (potential MVP) Christian McCaffrey, who scored his 20th TD last weekend. He has three games left to break the all-time NFC record of 28 (2005 Shaun Alexander) or the Niners’ record of 23 (by Jerry Rice, which he did in just 12 games in 1987).

CMC is on pace to be the fifth player ever with 2000+ scrimmage yards and 25+ TDs: LaDainian Tomlinson 2006, Priest Holmes 2003, Marshall Faulk 2000, Emmitt Smith 1995. Two of these RBs won the MVP (LT and Faulk), per Michael Salfino of The Athletic. His MVP odds (+1300) rank 5th among players, just behind Jalen Hurts (+1100) and slightly ahead of Josh Allen (+1400).

Outside of CMC, we’re drafting Zero-RB next year. Kyren Williams (highest team touch share in Week 15 among RBs), Devin Singletary (3rd), Ty Chandler (5th), Rachaad White (6th), Raheem Mostert (13th) — all picked outside the Top 100 or available on waivers.

Even James Cook (4th) was a zero RB pick (available after Round 5). Stats per The Athletic’s Michael Salfino’s 2023 Market Share Report for RB team touch share in Week 15.

Start Aaron Jones against a Panthers team allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position. An RB has 50+ rushing yards and a touchdown in five consecutive contests against CAR between Weeks 10 and 14, per Zack Buckley of Bleacher Report.

Sit Jerome Ford against a Houston defense allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards on the season. Since Week 11, their opponents average just 2.9 yards per carry. Without a TD, Ford could be looking at another single-digit fantasy day, per Michael Florio of NFL.com.

Start Devin Singletary, who is the bell cow in Houston. Singletary handled 81% of the carries last week and saw five targets, while Dameon Pierce played only four snaps. Why is this happening? Singletary’s vision.

“Singletary has 1.81 yards before contact per attempt, and Pierce has 0.43 yards before contact per attempt. Singletary is getting well over a yard more every carry before even being touched”, per Chris Wecht of Fantasy Points.

Start James Cook. Newly promoted OC Joe Brady has ignited the Bills running game, as “Let James Cook” is averaging 12.4 more (!!) fantasy points per game (24.9) than he did under former OC Ken Dorsey (12.5), per Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points. If you drafted Cook and made the fantasy playoffs, you’ve got this.

• Stash D’Ernest Johnson, who remains the handcuff to Travis Etienne in the Jaguars offense.

• Stash Michael Carter, the shifty Cardinals RB who could be behind James Conner for opportunities in Arizona.

• Stop pissing off Rashard Mendenhall, the former Steelers RB who proposed an All-White vs All-Black Bowl. "We don’t need to be offended by everything in the entire world." - J.J. “I forgot it’s 2023” Watt.

Wide Receiver

Start Jordan Addison, who is better with Justin Jefferson in the lineup. Addison averages 10.8 FPPG and 1.80 YPRR with Jefferson, compared to 6.6 points and 1.50 YPRR without him, per Jake Ciely of The Athletic.

Start Calvin Ridley, who has garnered 33 targets in three games since Christian Kirk (IR) exited Week 13. His production has been awful (just 13 catches for 118 yards), but we should expect some positive regression against a Buccaneers defense ranked No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.1), per Matt Freedman of Fantasy Life.

Start Tyler Boyd. PIT is giving up the fifth-most receiving YPG (89.8) to receivers aligned in the slot and is dealing with a cluster injuries in the middle of the field. Chase is likely to miss and Boyd is averaging 1.63 YPRR on a 24.1% target share on 111 targets against man coverage, per Tom Brolley of Fantasy Points.

Sit Terry McLaurin. “It will be hard to move McLaurin to your bench, but the strongest wills always prevail. The Jets are a great pass defense; prior to Jaylen Waddle, they'd allowed just three non-PPR points to opposing WRs over the two weeks prior,” per John Hoefling of USA Today.

Sit Adam Thielen. “We now have six games of Thielen without Frank Reich calling plays. He is averaging just 9.9 FPPG in those six games. He is also sharing more work with rookie Jonathan Mingo as of late. Now he gets the Packers, who had been extremely stingy to WRs before running into the Bucs last week,” per Michael F. Florio of NFL.com.

Stash Dontayvion Wicks, the Packers WR who has bypassed Romeo Doubs in the pecking order. The biggest riser for Matt Harmon of Reception Perception’s In-season Rookie Report last month? “Easily Dontayvion Wicks.”

“Wicks has really impressed as a rookie. Knows how to beat man coverage, really nice work off the line vs press and can win after the catch. Packers have really hit on young pass catchers of late but I think Wicks is, at worst, their long-term WR3, per Matt Harmon of Reception Perception.”

• Stash Trey Palmer. “Palmer has quietly come into his own as a target earner with at least a 13.3% target share in 6-of-8 games. He’d benefit greatly if either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin missed time”, per Establish the Run’s Jack Miller.

• Stash Cedrick Wilson. Wilson played 77% of snaps with Tyreek Hill absent in Week 15, meaning Wilson could be a last-minute fill-in.

Tight End

Start Darren Waller. “Waller played his first game since Week 8 and led the team with a 22% TPRR on a 49% route participation. The Giants offense is hardly anything to get excited about, but Waller doesn’t have much target competition. He garnered 38%, 23% and 30% target shares in his last three games before the injury. Waller UPGRADES to high-end TE2 status”, per Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life.

Start Evan Engram. Despite the down game last week, Engram is still averaging nearly 8 targets per game. He also takes on the Bucs this week, who have allowed the 3rd most yards and the 6th most FPPG to TEs this season, per Michael F Florio of NFL.com.

Sit Kyle Pitts. Atlanta utilized four different TEs against Carolina, with all four playing at least 17 snaps and running at least five routes. You simply cannot trust Arthur Smith.

Sit Michael Mayer. “Since Week 6, he has only topped double figures twice, and both were games with a touchdown. If he doesn’t score, you are risking a fantasy day below 5 points. Especially in this matchup. Stream elsewhere,” per Michael F. Florio of NFL.com.

• Stream Tyler Higbee. “The Saints have bled out production to tight ends this season. New Orleans has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-highest yards per reception to tight ends,” per Derek Brown of FantasyPros.

D/ST Streamers

Must-start: 

• Jets D/ST against the Commanders sack-prone offense. A top defense vs a mistake prone offense? Make my day.

• Chiefs D/ST faces off against the Raiders offense that scored 0 points in Week 14 before the Chargers let them score 63 so Brandon Staley could be fired, per our sources.

• Broncos D/ST (vs NE), Bills D/ST (@LAC) and Packers D/ST (@CAR) are all strong options against weak QBs.

This is a prime spot for the Bengals’ D/ST facing off against Mason Rudolph, who “has shown time and again that he can’t play quarterback in the NFL. And he’s even worse at fighting”, per Evan Silva of Establish the Run.

Looking ahead (Week 17 stashes), per Establish the Run’s Jack Miller.

1. CLE (vs. NYJ) – Zach Wilson.

2. DEN (vs. LAC) – “This Broncos defense has been on fire lately and gets the unproven Stick during fantasy championship weekend.”

3. NYJ (@ CLE)

4. BUF (vs. NE) – “Zappe in cold, potentially snowy Buffalo seems like an ideal spot for fantasy goodness.”

5. JAX (vs. CAR) – The Panthers.

INJURIES

Big Names Back in Action

Expected to play:

• Chris Olave (ankle)

• Jonathan Taylor (thumb)

• Tyreek Hill (ankle)

• Josh Jacobs (quad)

• Aaron Jones (finger, knee)

• Isiah Pacheco (shoulder)

• Chris Godwin (knee)

• Jerome Ford (wrist)

• Noah Brown (knee)

Out:

• Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder)

• C.J. Stroud (concussion)

Monitor:

• Trevor Lawrence (concussion) sat out of yesterday’s practice

• Keenan Allen (heel) hasn’t practiced in a week and a half

• Michael Pittman Jr. is in concussion protocol, but was listed as a limited participant in yesterday’s estimated injury report

• Ken Walker was an estimated non-participant in yesterday’s walkthrough with a new shoulder injury

• Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) hasn’t practiced in over two weeks

• Alexander Mattison (ankle) sat out of yesterday’s practice

• Nico Collins (calf) was limited in yesterday’s practice

• Marquise Brown (heel) did not participate in yesterday’s practice

• Jayden Reed (ankle) played through his injury last week, but sat out of yesterday’s practice

• Christian Watson (hamstring) hasn’t practiced in over two weeks

• Zach Moss (forearm) logged a limited practice in yesterday’s estimated injury report

• Brian Robinson (hamstring) hasn’t practiced in over two weeks

• Zay Jones (hamstring) sat out of yesterday’s practice

• Will Levis (ankle) did not participate in yesterday’s practice

• Kenny Pickett (ankle) has logged two limited practices this week

• Zach Wilson (concussion) sat out of yesterday’s practice

• Hunter Henry (knee) did not participate in yesterday’s practice

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Ever wonder what NFL travel is like? Take a peek behind the scenes with the N.Y. Giants by The Athletic’s Dan Duggan.

Curfew is typically at 10 p.m. A security guard stationed on each floor makes the rounds to confirm players are in their rooms. Players say it’s exceptionally rare for anyone to miss curfew.

“I’ve got a couple boys in the NBA, and they operate totally different,” Shepard said. “They can be out all night, but we’ve only got so many games.”

📖 Read the Shadow Report by Mike Clay of ESPN. Mike’s article tracks the best and worst CB/WR matchups of the week. All Ram’s pass-catchers are slightly downgraded.

“Nacua (70% perimeter) and Robinson (73%) are the Rams' top perimeter receivers and should be downgraded against Adebo and Yiadom/Lattimore. Kupp (53% slot) doesn't need to be downgraded quite as much against Taylor.”

📖 Read Early 2024 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft (SuperFlex) by CJay from Rotostreet Journal. It’s never too early to start preparing for next year before the NFL Combine and pre-draft reports start.

🎙️Listen to Power Ranking the Top 10 Picks of the 2024 NFL Draft by The Ringer Fantasy Football Show podcast. They debate what each team should do with their first round picks that will have significant impact in fantasy.

🎙️Listen to Week 16 Tough Calls, Saints-Rams, Fantasy Cops by the Fantasy Football Today podcast. They dive into the many tough decisions owners face this week such as what to do with Tua Tagovailoa (4:22), can we trust James Conner and Derrick Henry (13:35), Thursday night preview (40:00) and more.

📺️ Watch Bill Belichick in his glory before he reportedly leaves New England at the end of the season.

Tweet of the Day

Is there a bigger fantasy football enemy than Arthur Smith?

Good luck this weekend, because nothing goes better with Christmas dinner than a fantasy football semi-final W.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean