Good morning. If you lost in your fantasy league, remember that it’s all luck, randomness and variance.

If you won in Week 15, don’t forget how much skill and strategy goes into this. You truly are better than your leaguemates.

Good news for: Anyone who stashed Rashee Rice. The former waiver-wire, late round pick is looking like a league winner with zero meaningful competition in the Chiefs’ wide receiver room 👇️ 

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Gus Edwards rises to RB25. Rookie phenom Keaton Mitchell tore his ACL, so it’ll be Edwards and Justice Hill leading the charge once again. The Gus Bus scored 9 touchdowns in a 5-game span before Mitchell’s emergence and should be a solid RB2 going forward.

Stefon Diggs falls to WR8. He’s still a must-start stud, but Diggs managers haven’t gotten what they paid for lately. With Buffalo spreading the ball around more — including a heavier dose of James Cook — Diggs has only eclipsed double-digit fantasy points once in his last 5 games.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

WAIVER WIRE

Running Back

Ty Chandler is probably taken but a must-add. “He finished with 26 touches, 132 rushing yards and 24.7 fantasy points against Cincinnati, the Vikings first 100-yard rusher since Week 10 of last season. He can be considered as an RB2 if Mattison remains out for Week 16. If Mattison returns, Chandler should still be considered a flex option,” per Eric Moody of ESPN.

Colts RBs Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson were both effective after Zack Moss left with an arm injury. Sermon led the pair in rushing attempts (17) and rushing yards (88), while averaging 5.2 yards per attempt.

The 23-year old Goodson has juice, rushing for 69 yards on 11 carries while averaging 6.3 yards per attempt. Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor are both reportedly going to try to play this week, but Sermon and Goodson should be stashed. We’d prefer the younger, 4.42-speed Goodson, whom Matt Waldman compared to Austin Ekeler 👀 

Zamir White is worth a stash with Josh Jacobs’ status for this week still undetermined. Last Thursday, White had 85 total yards and one TD in an (insane) Raiders win. While he split snaps with Ameer Abdullah, White is likely to see more work — especially near the goal line. Temper expectations: the Raiders are unlikely to be in a winning gamescript against the Chiefs this week, which could mean more Abdullah.

Jerick McKinnon remains a high-upside option even with “Isiah Pacheco trending toward a return in Week 16”. Both were excellent in the closing weeks last season; McKinnon scored 9 TDs in the final six games in 2022. He's generally on the field in high-value scenarios,” per Andy Behrens of Yahoo.

Tyjae Spears impresses every time he touches the ball. An impatient owner may have dropped Spears, who has FLEX appeal against a Seattle defense that’s 5th worst in the league at defending RBs, per Pat Fitzmaurice of FantasyPros.

• Chase Brown is averaging 4.5 yards per carry in limited work behind Joe Mixon (3.9 YPC). He’ll need Mixon to miss time to see a massive workload, but Brown can take it to the house at any moment. At least one Bengals fan think he’s the best RB they have.

• D’Onta Foreman has scored 9+ FP in every Bears win he’s played in, per John Hansen of Fantasy Points. With a matchup against the 3-11 Cardinals, he’s a worthy streaming candidate.

• Gus Edwards is likely owned, but it’s worth checking.

• Justice Hill is also worth an add, as he’s likely to be the primary passing down back.

Other handcuffs to target:

• Tyler Allgeier

• Elijah Mitchell

• D’Ernest Johnson

• Antonio Gibson

• Chase Edmonds

• Joshua Kelley

• Kenneth Gainwell

Wide Receiver

Dontayvion Wicks is most likely available. “Christian Watson missed the last two games with his latest hamstring injury, and Jayden Reed left in the fourth quarter of Week 15 with a toe injury (Reed might miss a few games). Wicks stepped up with a team-high 97 receiving yards on 7 targets against the Buccaneers,” per the staff at Fantasy Points. The Packers coaching staff loves him and Packers fans are comparing him to Donald Driver.

Joshua Palmer has double-digit fantasy points in each of his last five full games, including a massive 21+ points in his first game back from injury. With Keenan Allen (heel) banged up, Palmer should continue to see a healthy amount of targets in LA.

Noah Brown “exploded for 82 yards and 1 TD on 11 targets as Case Keenum’s top target against the Titans last week. C.J. Stroud will likely return to the lineup against the Browns this week, and Brown could be his #1 WR if Nico Collins (calf) is unable to play. Brown would still be a solid flex option this week even if Collins returns,” per the staff at Fantasy Points.

Demarcus Robinson has now hit 40-plus receiving yards and a TD in three straight games, finishing between 13 and 16 fantasy points in all three. “Next Gen Stats back up the production: Robinson has run 24 routes in the red zone over these past three weeks (tied with Cooper Kupp for most on the team) and drawn six targets on those routes (second only to Kupp’s seven),” per Matt Okada of NFL.com.

Tyler Boyd has been irrelevant for much of the season, but will see plenty of opportunities with Ja’Marr Chase expected to miss multiple weeks. The matchups look good for Boyd, too — since Week 9, Pittsburgh and Kansas City, the Bengals Week 16 and 17 opponents, have allowed the 5th most and the 9th most PPR points per target to opposing slot receivers, per Fantasy Points Data.

• Curtis Samuel continues to produce. Over his last three games, he's been targeted 26 times, catching 18 passes for 206 yards and two scores. He’s a strong fill-in.

• Rashid Shaheed took over as New Orleans’ WR1 with Chris Olave (ankle) out, but he didn’t do much (3 receptions for 36 yards). If Olave were to miss this week as well, Shaheed could get another shot as the primary target.

Raiders rookie WR Tre Tucker has 59 yards and 2 TDs last week and could see more work if the Raiders get behind early in a matchup against the Chiefs in Week 16. It helps that they’ve given him the Tyreek Hill role.

QB & TE

Baker Mayfield has impressed all season and had a season-high 29 fantasy points in Week 15. Next, the Buccaneers face a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks,” per Eric Moody of ESPN.

Jake Browning might be the real deal. He’s averaging 295 passing yards per game with a 76.0 completion percentage, 9.2 yards per attempt and a 109.3 passer rating. Those numbers would rank 1st, 1st, 2nd and 2nd (both behind only Brock Purdy) among all qualified QBs on the season, per Matt Okada of NFL.com. His matchup against Pittsburgh doesn’t sound appealing, but they did just give up 20+ to Gardner Minshew and Bailey Zappe.

Joe Flacco has earned Cleveland’s starting job with three straight performances of 17+ fantasy points in his first three starts. He has a beatable matchup against the Texans this week before facing a tough Jets team in Week 17.

Gardner Minshew “has been a solid streaming option over the last month with fantasy finishes of QB5, QB11, QB14, and QB19. Even with Michael Pittman exiting with a concussion in Week 15, Minshew managed to throw for three scores. His next opponents, the Falcons, are among the 10 easiest matchups for fantasy QBs, so Minshew remains a strong streamer - even if Pittman isn't cleared to play,” per Justin Boone of theScore.

Isaiah Likely is likely rostered since he’s scored at least 18 fantasy points in each of his last two starts. But if he isn’t, take advantage of incompetent leaguemates.

Hunter Henry has been a weapon in the red zone. “Bailey Zappe and Henry have connected for 106 yards and three TDs over past two games, with Henry scoring 19 fantasy points in each. The Patriots face a Broncos defense in Week 16 that allows the most fantasy points per game to tight ends,” per Eric Moody of ESPN.

• Tucker Kraft feels a little TD-dependent, but he’s worth a shot. He’s had 2 TDs in his last 4 games and has had at least 9.5 PPR FP in 3 of the 4 as well.

• If you’re in a league without an IR, you should probably find a new league.

• But before you do, see if Darren Waller was dropped. He only had 4 catches for 40 yards last week and could be lurking on your waiver wire.

D/ST Streamers

Eagles: “After a heartbreaker of a loss in Seattle, the Eagles have to be positively seething as they prepare to host a Giants team they will play twice over the next three weeks—a Giants team that leads the NFL in fantasy points given up to defenses” per Gary Davenport of NBC Sports.

Bills: “The Bills face Easton “Definitely Not Justin Herbert” Stick and a Chargers team that just allowed a pair of defensive touchdowns to the Raiders. The Bills can’t afford a letdown game given their precarious playoff positioning, so this should be a rout” per Gary Davenport of NBC Sports.

Facing the Chiefs, the Patriots (@ Broncos) were rightly dropped but are back to the top of Sporting News’ sleepers and streamers for Week 16 against a Russell Wilson-led Denver offense that makes lots of mistakes. New England has three picks over its past two games, 11 sacks over its past four, and an opponent average of just 14.2 points per game over its past five.

Colts (@ Falcons) have been the definition of high-ceiling, and Taylor Heinicke could keep that trend going. Commanders (@ Jets) also offer upside against a joke of a New York Jets offense. Falcons (vs. Colts) and Texans (vs. Browns) both are pushing towards playoffs and face backup QBs with depleted skill-positions.

DEEP DIVES

Watch for Washington

The idea is you pick up players the week before everyone adds them off the waiver wire. Last week, the perfect pickups were Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson.

Parker Washington has been the next man up for the Jags with Christian Kirk going on IR. In his last 3 games, Washington averaged 5 targets per game and totalled 2 TDs. The rookie from Penn State has shown promise and should continue to do so given Zay Jones’ recent hamstring injury and Jacksonville’s favorable upcoming matchups (TB, CAR & TEN).

Darius Slayton saw 8 targets last week and accumulated 63 yards. While he hasn’t connected much with QB Tommy Cutlets, Slayton is still a deep threat that could be a desperation start in deeper leagues.

Isaiah Spiller saw 16 carries in the Chargers’ blowout loss last Thursday. Joshua Kelley has been uninspiring, Austin Ekeler’s wearing down, Brandon Staley got fired, and the Chargers don’t have much to play for… so why not see if the 2nd year runner has any juice?

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Best Last-Place Punishments by Keegs of Rotostreet Journal. Roadside embarrassment is our personal favourite.

📖 Read Stock Up, Stock Down by Lawrence Jackson Jr of NBC Sports. Amari Cooper has been rising since Joe Flacco took over as starting QB whereas Bijan Robinson remains a risky start going forward in the fantasy playoffs.

📖 Read Monday Dynasty Roundup by Jeff Bell of FootballGuys. Jeff evaluates noteworthy players from every single team and their stats this year. DJ Moore is on pace to set new career highs, while Brock Purdy is 7 TDs away from breaking Steve Young’s passing TD record.

🎙️Listen to 2023 Week 15 Fantasy Recap by the PFF Fantasy Football podcast. They recap every game from Week 15, touching on players like Saquon Barkley (6:25), who may continue to struggle in Week 16.

🎙️Listen to Which New Injuries Should You be Worried About by TheScore Fantasy Football podcast. It doesn’t look good for Michael Pittman returning in Week 16.

📺️ Watch this epic Christmas parody video about Arthur Smith, by Adam Levitan of ETR.

Tweet of the Day

Before we go, send your well wishes to any Arthur Smith fans. After reports surfaced of Smith’s job being safe, he decided to give his three top-10 picks (Bijan, London, Pitts) a combined 15 touches in Atlanta’s 9-7 loss to the formerly 1-11 Carolina Panthers.

Somebody has to stop this man (Falcons management???).

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean