Good day. We’re a day early, because your battle starts tonight with the Cowboys-Lions matchup. Remember: Fantasy football is not about having fun or spending time with friends. It’s about winning. Dominating. Leave nothing to chance.

After you win, this “How to make fun of others” article could offer inspiration for how you treat your leaguemates.

TRIVIA

START EM SIT EM

Running Back

Consider sitting Joe Mixon as the Bengals are “6.5-point underdogs with an 18.75 implied team total. Mixon’s snap share hit a season-low of 59 percent in Week 16 and his route rate of 44 percent also tied his season-low,” per Kyle Dvorchak of NBC Sports.

Start Travis Etienne, who faces a Panthers defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs (25.8 FPPG), with six RBs registering at least 20 fantasy points, per Liz Loza of ESPN.

Consider sitting Tony Pollard, who faces a Lions defense that has given up the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season at just 14.4 half-PPR points per game. Detroit has also held opposing teams to under 100 rush yards in 14 of 15 games in 2023, including under 70 rush yards in five straight contests, per Rotoballer.

Start Clyde Edwards-Helaire against a Bengals team that lost key run stuffer, D.J. Reader (quadriceps), early in Week 15 against Minnesota — when Ty Chandler had 24.7 PPR points. In Week 16, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for 24.2 PPR points against the Bengals, per Jamey Eisenberg of CBS.

• Start Chuba Hubbard, who has scored in double-digits in each of his past five games with a minimum of 17 touches — ranking eighth in RBTouch% and 13th in FPPG, per Jake Ciely of The Athletic.

• Start Austin Ekeler against a Broncos defense that is No. 2 in most points allowed to running backs this year.

• Start Ty Chandler, who takes on a Packers run defense that is allowing the league’s eighth-highest Explosive Rush rate (5.3%) and is below average in Stuff rate and Yards Before Contact Allowed per Attempt, according to Fantasy Points Data, per Establish the Run.

Wide Receiver

Consider an alternative for Stefon Diggs. The Bills’ switch from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady at OC has led to Diggs seeing 1.6 fewer targets per game. Buffalo keeps winning, and don’t expect much to change against New England and Bill Belichick, who has a penchant for taking away the opposing team's No. 1 asset, per Liz Loza of ESPN.

Still, Diggs is a stud and had 17 fantasy points in his last game against the Patriots (but a TD saved his outing, as he was held to 6-of-12 for only 58 yards). So… go with your gut, but don’t expect a blowup game.

Start Nico Collins. C.J. Stroud is back and should lean on Collins against the Titans. In four games prior to Collins hurting his calf in Week 14, he had scored at least 13.5 PPR points in each outing. Collins is also averaging 21.8 PPR points in eight games at home this season, per CBS’s Jamey Eisenberg.

Start Brandin Cooks, who is averaging 67.2 receiving yards with four touchdowns over six home games this season; he’s averaging just 19.4 receiving yards over eight games on the road. The Lions are a pass-funnel defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs this season. The Cowboys have a 29-point implied team total, per Dalton Del Don of Yahoo!

Start Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in an absolute eruption spot for the 49ers receivers. Aiyuk shredded the Ravens for 6/113 receiving last week, and he continued to show off that he can get open at will. Washington is allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside and slot receivers, per Graham Barfield of FantasyPoints.

• Sit Calvin Ridley, who faces a Panthers defense No. 4 in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs, and is without QB Trevor Lawrence.

• Sit Drake London against a Bears defense that has permitted only one receiver to top 13.4 PPR fantasy points over the last four contests (Amari Cooper), per Sportskeeda.

QB & TE: Bench the Ice King

Sit Jared Goff, who has played three games against teams with pass defenses that rank inside the top 10 in DVOA. His fantasy finishes those three weeks: QB18, QB24, QB14. Goff visits Dallas this week for a matchup against a Cowboys pass defense that ranks sixth in DVOA. Per Pat Fitzmaurice of Fantasy Pros, who has Goff ranked QB14.

Start Dak Prescott, who faces a Lions defense allowing the 7th most FP vs QBs in one of the highest totals of the week (53.5).

Start C.J. Stroud against a Titans team giving up the 13th-most passing YPG (245.9) to QBs. Stroud previously posted 274+ yards and 16.1+ FP in five straight games in Weeks 9-13, per Tom Brolley of Fantasy Points.

• Start Brock Purdy (stinger), who faces a Commanders defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to QBs and the 2nd most passing yards per game this season, per Nick Skrip.

• Stream Derek Carr, who has thrown 3 TDs in each of his last two games and plays the NFL’s worst pass defense in Tampa Bay.

Start Travis Kelce in an eruption spot against a Bengals defense ceding the NFL’s second most catches (98) and a league-high 1,020 yards to tight ends. Throwing fits on the sideline and publicly shaming his teammates, Kelce is going to be calling for the ball here, per Evan Silva of Establish the Run.

Stream Logan Thomas, against a 49ers team that, over the last three weeks, have been cracked for 24/311/2 receiving (on 28 targets) by Seahawks, Cardinals, and Ravens tight ends. Thomas went for 3/27/1 receiving (on 3 targets) once Brissett entered the game last week vs. Jets, per Graham Barfield of FantasyPoints.

STASH REPORT

Hold These Guys

The incoming offseason for keeper and dynasty leagues could lead to some value for players with more opportunities in 2024. Here’s five:

🚀 Cowboys RB Deuce Vaughn could see a massive opportunity if Tony Pollard leaves in free agency (as most suspect). Cowboys backup Rico Dowdle is also a free agent at the end of the season. While they will definitely add an RB, Vaughn could see valuable playing time.

👍️ Bengals WR Charlie Jones may be in line for more targets if the Bengals move on from both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. While expected to franchise tag Higgins, Jones could move into Boyd’s role if Cincy looks for a cheaper slot option. Jones has been explosive in punt returns (video).

👀 Dolphins RB Chris Brooks would compete with Raheem Mostert (turning 32) & Jeff Wilson (29), and could see more opportunities in the most valuable rushing attack in the league.

🫡 Buccaneers WR Trey Palmer, who could see work if Mike Evans leaves via trade or cap cut (~$24M) but high volume of targets to be available if he is gone. He's earned 4-6 targets per week since Week 8,

📈 Bengals RB Chase Brown. There's a chance Joe Mixon isn't back next year. If so, always the chance that they don't look for an expensive replacement. Over his last four weeks, Brown has firmly entrenched himself as a consistent albeit mild component of the Cincinnati offense.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Coverage Shells by Nick Spanola of FantasyPoints (no paywall). This article is typically paid, so take advantage of the incredible free analysis on the Texans WRs and why Michael Pittman should be in for a massive week.

📖 Read Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em by Graham Barfield of FantasyPoints. Barfield believes you can trust Kyle Pitts this week:

“The Bears are allowing the 7th-most receptions per game (7.5) to opposing slot receivers, and that aligns well. Pitts lined up in the slot on 66% of his routes last week. Pitts has shown a little bit of chemistry with Heinicke, as they’ve connected on 10-of-15 targets for 144 yards and 1 TD.”

📖 Read Silva’s Matchups: Week 17 from Establish The Run ($). Silva highlights Zay Flowers in the marquee Dolphins @ Ravens matchup:

“Flowers has drawn eight or more targets in three of Baltimore’s last four games and hit paydirt four times in the last month. Sans Mark Andrews (ankle surgery, I.R.), Flowers is the Ravens’ passing-game alpha.”

📖 Read Week 17 Defense Streamers and Starts by Scott Rinear of Roto Baller. Rinear thinks you should ride the hot hand with the Raiders D/ST:

“The Colts have a negative POA (Points Over Average) allowed on the season (-0.5 PPG), but their offense has sputtered as of late, with a positive POA allowed in 2 of the last 3 games, including +5.9 points to the Falcons in Week 16. The Colts are a slightly positive matchup, which is enough for me to pin my DST hopes on the Raiders in Week 17.”

🎙️Listen to The BIGGEST Fantasy Football Questions for Every Week 17 Matchup by FantasyPros. Chris Welsh, Pat Fitzmaurice and Derek Brown dive into each matchup and answer the biggest questions surrounding key players.

🎙️Listen to Week 17 Sleepers by JJ Zachariason of The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Zachariason highlights many streaming options for deeper leagues, like Cardinals WR Greg Dortch.

Dortch has a solid 20.5% target share in games where he’s played at least 70% of snaps, which is likely to happen with Marquise Brown on IR.

📺️ Watch Joe Flacco’s full interview on the Pat McAfee Show, where he admits he almost gave up on his NFL career before the Browns called.👀

Tweet of the Day

Good luck in your championships this weekend. If you ain’t first, you’re last, so start your studs and trust your gut — you got this.

Thanks for a heck of a season, legends. We’ll see you in April.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean