Good morning. Today is the day - we are excited to share the first-ever Morning Huddle merch drop with you.

Designed by yours truly, these 15oz, dual-sided fantasy football mugs pair perfectly with your morning routine. One side has the Morning Huddle logo, the other contains a phrase we live by.

We made 50 of these. Let us know what you think!

Now, back to the scheduled programming: helping you win in Week 3.

Good news to start your day: Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson has a “good chance” to play in Week 3.

Richardson is still in concussion protocol and did not practice yesterday, but per Jeff Mueller, Richardson’s immediate self-reporting versus latent symptoms or loss of consciousness is similar to Kenny Pickett in 2022 (Pickett missed zero games). Hoping for the best.

The QB School’s J. T. O'Sullivan published a great breakdown of Richardson’s Week 2 performance 👇️ 

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RANKINGS

Sam Howell moves up to QB18 after another solid performance, throwing for 299 yards and 2 TD while making some elite-level throws from the pocket. With Buffalo and Philly on the horizon, we’ll see if he’s legit.

Howell’s teammate Brian Robinson moves up to RB24. The second-year back has seen 100% of the goal line work in Washington, per Alex Caruso, and is averaging 20 touches per game (Antonio Gibson averages a measly 4.5), per TruMedia.

Alexander Mattison falls to RB30 after the Vikings traded for Cam Akers. Mattison is averaging a replaceable 3.3 YPC and 2.1 yards per target, per Matthew Betz, and will see increased competition with Akers in the fold. But don’t expect Akers to immediately replace Mattison - they first need to have an epic JAG-off (I love reddit).

A.J. Brown falls to WR10 after being out-performed by teammate Devonta Smith (the current WR6). Brown’s underlying usage is strong (more on that below), but he isn’t the clear-cut alpha on his team like other WRs in this range (like CeeDee Lamb, our WR5). Brown’s sideline outburst might help?

Kyle Pitts plummets to TE22. He’s being outscored by names like Blake Bell, Durham Smythe and Kylen Granson. Pitts is an incredible talent who spends the majority of gamedays running cardio. Sell him and join the former Kyle Pitts managers support group while vowing to never draft him again.

MARKETS

Loving LaPorta’s Usage

📈 We’re impressed with Sam LaPorta. LaPorta leads all rookie TE’s in targets (11), receptions (10), & receiving yards (102) through WK2. He has had an 80+% snap share in both games, catching at least 5 passes in each. He increased his WR snap% from 32.8% in Wk1 to 53.7% last week (and is spending less time pass-blocking). Remember, this is a rookie who could’ve been the first TE drafted. With Amon-Ra St Brown suffering a turf toe injury and more experience for the rookie, LaPorta’s usage should rise.

👍️ We’re adding Wan’Dale Robinson. Robinson is set to make his season debut tonight against the 49ers. In his last game prior to tearing his ACL, Robinson had 13 targets for 9 catches and 100 yards. Daboll & Kafka drafted him in the early second round of 2022. He’s available in most leagues.

👀 We’re watching Ronnie Rivers. The biggest beneficiary of the Cam Akers trade, Rivers “came into the year knowing he would be No. 3 at best and kept improving and running hard every day. Put some great tape out there in these preseason games”, per Rams beat writer Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic. Rivers was the only other RB to see snaps for the Rams in Week 2 and is a sneaky stash as Kyren Williams clear backup.

📈 We’re betting Jaylen Warren sees more work. Warren’s snap share stayed relatively consistent from Weeks 1 to 2, but his opportunities grew. Catching 6 passes in both games, Warren doubled the amount of carries he received in Week 2 and HC Mike Tomlin spoke about giving Warren more opportunities going forward.

📉 We’re shopping Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson is a stud. But this Wilson was the WR60 with Zach Wilson last season (WR8 without Zach Wilson). Unfortunately, Zach Wilson is still the Jets QB. In Week 2, only 44% of Garrett Wilson’s targets were deemed catchable, and the Jets posted a negative dropback rate over expectation (DBOE) at -4%. New York is averaging a dreadful 49 plays per game. If you hold Wilson, pray for a QB upgrade.

📈 We’re buying Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed only has a 65% route share and saw just 49% of snaps in Week 2. Yet he’s turned that into 9 catches for 152 yards and a TD while posting an elite 2.92 YPRR (9th best). If he can continue this level of production while increasing his snap and route share, he could sneak into WR2/3 territory.

📉 Cam Akers has not sold us. The Vikings traded for the former Rams RB, giving up a conditional 6th rounder for a conditional 7th in the 2026 draft (!) to acquire Akers, so it’s not as though they have to play him. Both Akers and Mattison are bottom-10 in rushing yards over expected.

Click here to send us an email with your start/sit questions and we’ll feature some in Sunday’s newsletter.

Signal or Noise?

Najee 📉 while Puka 🔥 

Puka Nacua has been the story of fantasy football. With Cooper Kupp sidelined (hamstring), the rookie from BYU has exploded — breaking Anquan Boldin’s 20-year old record for targets (36) and receptions (26) through the first two weeks of a career. But will this continue once Kupp is back? We dug into this for you.

TLDR: There is a role for both of them. Per Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Nacua is playing a different position than Kupp. Puka lined up in the slot (Kupp’s primary position) on less than 30% of snaps. Harmon also points out that Nacua has had success running “big boy routes” vs. man-coverage and specializes on in-breaking routes, a staple of Sean McVay’s offense.

On top of his success vs. man-coverage, The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue notes that Stafford said Nacua is “early in the progression” for him on zone concepts, and 21 of Nacua’s targets (15 catches) in two games have been against zone coverages (for 162 yards and 8.71 air yards per target).

Top-20 WR season is possible for Puka, who is drawing comparisons to former Rams WR Robert Woods. In 2021 (Kupp’s breakout year) Kupp was WR1 (26.2 FPPG) and Woods was WR12 (15.2 FPPG) before Woods’ Week 10 injury, per @MattFFDynasty.

With the Rams offense coming back alive this year, Nacua is here to stay.

On the other hand, Najee Harris looks awful. 73% of his touches have resulted in plays gaining 2 or fewer yards this season, per the Fantasy Footballers, and his snap count has steadily declined over the past 3 seasons (84% to 66% to 55%). With Jaylen Warren looking explosive behind him (currently leading the league in missed tackles forced per touch, per Scott Barrett), we’re seeing a Zeke/Pollard situation play out before our eyes.

But don’t sell Najee yet. His first two games were against the 49ers and Browns, who are currently tied for 3rd in the league in opponent rushing yards per game. In the next two weeks, he plays Vegas and Houston, who rank 27th and 21st, respectively. While we’re still selling Najee, his stock is already lower than my savings account balance. Let him have a couple good games in these soft matchups, then sell high. Hopefully…

QUICK SLANTS

Not Down on AJ Brown

📖 Read “The Everything Report: 2023 Week 3” by Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints ($). This helps us guide our buy-low, sell-high decisions. On why we shouldn’t panic on AJ Brown:

“AJ Brown’s usage has been strong. He currently ranks 5th among all WRs in first-read target share, with 40.6%. But he’s lost a league-high minimum of 12.9 fantasy points to DPIs and plays negated due to penalty (including a 25-yard touchdown catch last week). That strongly hints at a looming positive regression to the mean, as does the fact that he’s fallen short of his volume-based expectation by 9.0 fantasy points this year (8th-worst among WRs), after out-scoring his expectation by 42.3 fantasy points last year (2nd-most).” So yeah, buy low.

📖 Read “Snaps and Pace: Week 3” by Pat Thorman of Establish The Run ($) covering expected play volume. Pat examines a very underrated aspect of fantasy football and had this to say about the Colts:

“They went to the hurry-up on three plays (one negated by penalty) during Minshew’s first series in relief of Richardson, and now have a 21% no-huddle rate on the season - which would have ranked behind only the Cardinals last year. Colts games have averaged 136.5 combined plays, tied for first on the young season.“ Fantasy production will always benefit from more touches.

📖 Read Week 3 Optimal Flex Plays by Lawrence Jackson Jr. of NBC Sports.

“Isiah Pacheco rushed for an efficient 70 yards on 12 carries in Week 2 against the Jaguars. In Week 3, he will face the Bears defense allowing the fourth-most points to running backs. Rachaad White, who struggled in Week 1, gained 103 total yards and a touchdown (on 22 touches) against the Bears last week. The Chiefs are the biggest home favorite at 12.5 points so we could potentially see them go conservative down the stretch if the game works out in their favor. Pacheco is only the RB35 so far this season, but this matchup against the Bears could boost that with opportunities to get into the endzone.”

🎙️Listen to Rest of Season Top-150 Rankings: Who To Trade For & Who To Trade Away by the Establish the Run team:

On Kyren Williams, who was moved up to RB16: “He had an outrageous role. He played 76 snaps on Sunday. A lot of snaps for a RB these days would be 40 to 50. He is also good as a pass catcher… I think Christian McCaffrey has the best RB role in fantasy right now and Williams has a good case for 2nd.”

🎙️Listen to the 10 Trends for Week 3 episode of the Late Round Podcast by JJ Zachariason:

On the Bears offense: “The offense is broken. They rank dead last in air yards per pass attempt, and Justin Fields is not running. He had 4 rush attempts in Week 2 and has only seen 2 designed runs this year. That rush attempt total is the lowest Fields has seen in a game since Week 11 of 2021… in a game where he got hurt.”

Creator of the Day

Sal Vetri

In this new series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

Sal Vetri (@SalVetriDFS) is a Fantasy Football creator who specializes in quick, touchpoint content via short and long-form video and Twitter threads. His audience across channels numbers in the hundreds of thousands and he’s incredibly quick to post valuable, actionable data such as route run leaders, usage reports, success under pressure, air yard leaders, etc. His goal? Help you win your league. Period.

In a recent thread, Sal discussed 7 players we need to trade before Week 3 which included DJ Moore, Christian Kirk and Raheem Mostert.

• DJ Moore - Moore ranks 83rd in WR usage and has earned only 9 targets, despite trailing the majority of the first two games. Sell high.

• Christian Kirk - Kirk saw his routes increase from 66% Week 1 to 84% Week 2. But this is misleading because Zay Jones and Ridley missed time with injury Week 2. Kirk was the only starting WR healthy the entire game, which led to an increase in snaps and routes.

• Raheem Mostert - He ranks 5th in RB points through two games and has commanded a strong 73% of the snaps and 60% of the rush attempts, but this has all led to producing 70% more points than expected based on his usage. His production is unsustainable and he has a broad injury history.

Sal also talked about 12 players we need to be targeting before Week 3 that included Rhamondre Stevenson, Travis Etienne and Sam LaPorta.

• Rhamondre Stevenson - He has played 73% of the snaps through two weeks while holding onto the majority of the red zone and pass-catching work. Zeke has seen just 28% of the rush attempts for the Patriots so far.

• Travis Etienne - In Week 2, Etienne handled an elite 88% of the RB opportunities while Tank Bigsby saw less work. This may be your only chance to get him all season before he potentially explodes against a weak Texans run defense.

• Sam LaPorta - LaPorta is the rare case of a rookie tight end looking NFL-ready. He’s run 78% of the Lion's routes through 2 games, and TEs who see this type of usage average a top-12 finish.

You can follow Sal on Twitter, TikTok and YouTube - and check out his Patreon here.

Tweet of the Day

Before we go, send your well wishes to those who were outbid on waivers this week or are starting Matt Breida. They need some positivity, now more than ever.

We’ll be back in your inbox Sunday morning with everything you need for Week 3 - injuries, start/sits, and more.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus, Matt & Sean

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