Good morning. Be kind. You never know what internal battles people are struggling with. So if someone’s an asshole today, remember that they probably had to decide between one of the Rams RBs or Samaje Perine.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Chris Olave falls to WR12. There looks to be trouble in paradise after Derek Carr yelled at him for stopping his route on TNF (despite the ball being 10 yards out of bounds). Carr looks content to check it down 100 times to Kamara rather than pushing it downfield to Olave, which is significantly hurting the receiver’s ceiling (finished as a 0.5-PPR Top-20 WR only twice this year).

Michael Mayer rises to TE15. The talented rookie’s pass game usage has more than doubled over the last 3 weeks (from 30% in Wk 3 to 67% last week, per @AlexCaruso). Mayer’s making the most of his opportunities (2nd HIGHEST single-game PFF Receiving Grade (89.1) of any TE with 5+ targets in a game this year. (behind only Mark Andrews, who had a 90.9 PFF Receiving Grade on 5 targets in WK4), and should continue to see his role grow.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings will be updated this morning 👇️ 

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START/SIT

Quarterback

Start Brock Purdy in a better matchup. “Quarterbacks facing the Vikings this season are completing 75% of their passes and Minnesota allows the third-highest passer rating to opposing QBs… And with Christian McCaffrey potentially missing this game or being less than 100%, Purdy may be forced to throw even more in a plus matchup on Monday night”, per Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate.

Start Jordan Love against Denver. “He faces the Broncos at home and has a 23.25 implied team total. The Broncos have allowed 250 passing yards and/or two passing touchdowns in every game but one this year. No team has allowed more passing touchdowns and only two teams have allowed more yards”, per Kyle Dvorchak’s Start Sit Decisions.

Sit Kirk Cousins. Turns out losing Justin Jefferson hurts. Against “the second-worst defense by EPA per pass allowed, Cousins threw for 181 yards and a single touchdown in Week 6. He ranked 20th in EPA per play. This week, Cousins gets a 49ers defense that ranks second-best in EPA per dropback allowed”, per Kyle Dvorcak’s Start Sit Decisions.

• Start Geno Smith: The Cardinals are allowing the fifth-most fantasy PPG to QBs this season.

• Jared Goff is a fringe QB1/QB: The Ravens are the No. 2 defense against QBs, allowing just 9.7 fantasy points per game.

Running Back

Start Jahmyr Gibbs. “It sure sounds like Jahmyr Gibbs is going to get a ton of work. Note that Craig Reynolds seems to be less healthy than Gibbs, which I think plays a big role in why head coach Dan Campbell was talking Gibbs’ role up. I think the range of outcomes includes a high floor (thanks to the workload) and a very high ceiling (thanks to the talent and offensive setup)”, per Ben Gretch’s Stealing Signals.

Start Jerome Ford in a good matchup. In the fourth quarter of Week 6, Ford had three rushes of 10 yards or more against a stout 49ers front seven. “Even with Kareem Hunt stealing touches, the Browns' run-game system is a positive for Ford. Perimeter schemes with pullers out in front, and the power concepts that give him daylight to attack inside the tackles.” Ford takes on a Colts defense allowing 23.3 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, per Matt Bowen’s Week 7 Film Room.

Avoid the Broncos backfield. “Javonte Williams returned from a hip injury and had his most efficient outing of the year. This is probably bad news overall for fantasy however, because Jaleel McLaughlin remained impressive and involved, while Samaje Perine has the long down and distance-only role. A dreaded three-way RBBC, which frankly may remain that way”, per Jakob Sanderson’s Sunday Drive.

• Start Rhamondre Stevenson, who “was back in a comfortable lead over Ezekiel Elliott with most of Elliott’s damage coming when Stevenson was briefly out”, per Jake Ciely’s Week 7 Rankings.

• Start calling your mother, because she “wishes you called more”. Even if she can’t help your lineup, you’ll be glad you called.

Wide Receiver

Start D.J. Moore, who will be funnelled targets by Bears backup QB Tyson Bagent. “Last week, Moore drew 6 targets on just 14 pass attempts (42.8% share) from Baget. Since the team moved on from Chase Claypool three weeks ago, Moore has been the first-read target a whopping 46.4% of the time”, per Graham Barfield’s Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em.

Start DeVonta Smith in a good bounce-back spot. Smith has played second fiddle to A.J. Brown this season, but this matchup should benefit him. Miami mainly runs Cover-3 and Cover-6 zone. Brown dominates targets vs. man (23 to Smith’s 10) but the target distribution is closer against zone coverages – Smith has just four less targets than Brown, per Graham Barfield’s Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em.

Start Tyler Lockett. Lockett faces a Cardinals defense playing zone at one of the league’s highest rates. “In previous seasons, Lockett has been the preferred option against zone over D.K. Metcalf, who tends to lead the way versus man. That trend has held true in 2023, with Lockett boasting a 23% target share versus Metcalf’s 16%. The Seahawks have the third-highest team total on the slate (26) and the sixth-best passing matchup”, per Dwain McFarland’s Week 7 Rankings.

Start Kendrick Bourne. “The Patriots are finally showing the good sense to play Bourne in a full time role and he has logged 90% route participation in back-to-back weeks and profiles as an intriguing DFS play / dart throw FLEX,” per Pat Kerrane’s Legendary Upside.

• Start Jalin Hyatt if you need a hail-mary play. Hyatt had an “83.3 Route% with a 16.5 AirYD/TGT in Week 6”, per Jake Ciely’s Week 7 Rankings.

• Start Rashee Rice if Justin Watson sits. “The Chargers allow the most YPR (12.7) and Rashee Rice leads the Chiefs in YPRR (2.75). Rice saw a massive usage uptick once Justin Watson exited. If Watson plays, Rice would get dinged a bit”, per Jake Ciely’s Week 7 Rankings.

Tight End

Stream Noah Fant, who “averaged 8.66 fantasy points per game from Weeks 2 to 5 before flopping last week. Per PFF’s matchup tool, Fant has a 42% matchup advantage against his likely primary defender Josh Woods. Fant’s 78.7 receiving grade is fourth-best among all tight ends,” per Thomas Valentine’s Sleeper Tight End Options.

Start David Njoku. “This is a potential breakthrough spot for David Njoku; the Colts have surrendered the NFL’s fourth-most catches (38) and sixth-most yards (363) to tight ends”, per Evan Silva’s Matchups ($).

Sit Cole Kmet, who Vegas has projected at 34.5 receiving yards. When backup QB Tyson Bagent was on the field, he didn't target Kmet once. TD or bust, as usual.

• Stream Jonnu Smith, who has at least 5 targets in five straight games despite being a part-time player.

• Stream Luke Musgrave, who the Packers love and trails only Sam LaPorta in rookie TE target share (15%).

NOTES

Pacheco Punishes

🚀 Trade for Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco has the 6th best EPA/rush and 9th best situation adjusted yards per carry this season (@tejfbanalytics) and has seen 82% of the Chiefs running back rush share per game since Week 4, averaging 18 PPR points per game (@LateRoundQB).

✋ Stop fading older WRs. Every WR averaging 22+ fantasy points per game is at least 29 years old: Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs (@dynasty_im).

🏦 Stash these three:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Geno Smith missed a wide-open JSN on what would have been a go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. Bigger days are coming.

• Trey Palmer: The Buccaneers rookie WR could have had over 150 yards in Week 6 - if only Baker Mayfield could throw Palmer an accurate pass (video). Mayfield missed him for over 100 air yards, including a potential 62-yard TD and a 40-yard deep ball.

• Damien Williams: Cardinals RB hadn’t played an NFL snap since Week of 2022 season prior to last week but still managed 4.5 YPC. There’s a world where he sees more work without Conner.

👀 Offer a worried manager for Brock Purdy. SF quarterbacks currently have the second-best schedule from here on out in adjusted fantasy points allowed. They'll face the Cardinals and Commanders in two of their three fantasy playoff matchups, too, per JJ Zachariason’s 15 Transactions.

🫡 Struggle is real for anyone facing Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon. Witherspoon vs Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Adam Thielen: 3 catches, 26 yards in coverage. Seahawks play Marquise Brown and the Cardinals this week.

🚑️ Critical Injury List:

• Christian McCaffrey (may sit, but he’s too good to bench in case he plays. Have one of his backups ready to switch in)

• Deebo Samuel (will miss the next two games. Samuel is expected to return in Week 10, per Adam Schefter of ESPN)

• Deshaun Watson (questionable, threw in practice)

• Broncos Fans (given up on season)

• Kyren Williams (eligible to return Week 12)

🥇 Drake London Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

London has gone for 78 and 125 receiving yards in his past two games. Since his Week 1 dud, he has seen 6+ targets in every game and averages 10.5 targets over his past two. He’s going up against a Tampa Bay defence giving up the 7th most passing yards per game (247). An Atlanta blowout doesn’t seem likely, so negative game script should not be a factor here. He’ll need 4-5 catches to hit this.

🥈 Rachaad White Longest Rush Under 11.5 Yards (-114)

Rachaad White is 41st in YPC (3.3) and his longest rush of the season is just 13 yards; he’s not a gamebreaker. Due to White still seeing dominating carries for Tampa, we feel more comfortable going under his longest rush rather than his yardage (46.5). He faces a Falcons team that gave up the 5th fewest total rushing yards per game (80.3) over the past three weeks.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose. And we’re probably wrong.

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Love/Hate for Week 7 by Matthew Berry. He loves D’Andre Swift this week, Najee Harris… not so much.

• Over the past three weeks, Swift has an 18% target share and at least four receptions in every game. Now he faces a Dolphins defense that allows the second-most yards per receptions to running backs. Swift is a Top 8 RB this week.

• Najee Harris has zero games with a snap share higher than 58%. He has four consecutive games with one catch or less (and a 6% target share in that span). Harris ranks 53/56 qualified RBs in fantasy points per touch this season.

📖 Read How the Jets Defense Stole a Win from the Eagles by Nick Kehoe. The Jets have now made Josh Allen (3 INTs), Patrick Mahomes (2 INTs) and Jalen Hurts (3 INTs) look pedestrian. Nick’s article explains why.

📖 Read Zach Evans Can’t be Good Right? by Noah Hills. Noah expresses his thoughts on the Rams backfield situation while Kyren Williams is out and what he believes will happen in Week 7.

🎙️Listen to Andy Reid Has Always Been Who He Is by Matt Waldman and Adam Harstad. They explain why scoring is DOWN big this season across the league.

🎙️Listen to Late Round Perspectives with JJ Zachariason and Scott Barrett. They discuss metrics that matter, the Rams backfield, favorite buy-low players, and much more.

📺️ Watch ESPNs feature on Bears new starting QB Tyson Bagent. Tyson’s arm strength seems to run in the family with his dad being a 17 time world arm-wrestling champion. He also might be insane. 

Tweet of the Day

For our collective mental health, let’s hope our backfield’s stay injury-free today. I can’t afford to lose another stud RB. The odds my neighbors start complaining about yelling (+120) are dangerously high.

And remember: Adam Gase was paid millions to coach a professional football team. No one has any idea what they are doing. It’s ok if you don’t, either.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean