Good morning. SUNDAY IS HERE. GAMEDAY. REDZONE. LET’S GOOOOO.

Are you tired of debating your WR rankings? It’s your lucky day. You can now argue over whether ESPN Analytics’ Rankings of the NFL’s Best WRs is accurate and justifies your Nico Collins & Tank Dell love. Their best WR overall?

Good news for anyone with Kenneth Walker III (calf strain). After not practicing all week, Walker enters Week 8 with no injury designation and should be the Seahawks workhorse. Fire him up, as the data shows minimal performance impact post-injury. Of course, I expect a massive week as I’m facing Walker in my home league…

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Kyler Murray rises to QB9. The dynamic QB practiced in full for the first time this season and looks to be ahead of schedule in his rehab. Although he isn’t playing today, he’s likely to be activated off the PUP list sometime before November 8th (the end of his 21-day practice window).

Christian Watson falls to WR32. We loved Watson’s 98th percentile athleticism and 99th percentile YPRR as a rookie (per Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points), but 15.5% of Jordan Love's throws are deemed "off target," the 3rd highest rate in the league, trailing only Kenny Pickett and Deshaun Watson (per Chris Trapasso of CBSSports).

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

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START/SIT

Quarterback

Start C.J. Stroud. “Stroud has shown tremendous poise and accuracy when he’s thrown from a clean pocket, ranking QB4 in yards per attempt (8.7) when he’s not pressured. This week, he faces a Panthers team with the weakest pass rush in the league, generating pressure on a league-low 13.5% of opponents’ pass plays when they do not blitz”, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

Start Trevor Lawrence. “The Steelers have allowed 241 passing yards per game, eighth-most among defenses. They line up in man coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the league. Over the last two seasons, Lawrence has earned an 81.0 grade passing against man coverage,” per Nathan Jahnke of PFF.

• Sit Russell Wilson. “Fade him against the Chiefs, who have surrendered the fourth-fewest points per game to quarterbacks this season. That includes holding Wilson to fewer than seven points,” per Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated.

• Stream Brock Purdy, who has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol and will play in Week 8. After reporting symptoms on the plane ride home on Monday, he quickly bounced back, making it possible that he didn’t sustain a concussion at all.

Running Back

Start Gus Edwards. “Edwards averages 12.8 attempts per game since the injury to J.K. Dobbins” and “the Ravens are eight-point favorites against a Cardinals team allowing the eighth-most rushing yards (131) and fifth-most fantasy points per game on the ground (20.4).

With the Ravens carrying the sixth-highest team total on the slate, Edwards should get a chance to capitalize on his role as the lead short yardage back”, per Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life’s Week 8 Rankings.

Sit Alexander Mattison. “Cam Akers had 10 carries to Mattison’s 3 (after the game’s first two drives) and Akers was the more productive receiver on six fewer routes. It’s tough to trust Mattison this week; the game script won’t necessarily be favorable with Minnesota traveling during a short week (and the Packers desperate),” per Dalton Del Don of Yahoo.

Sit Miles Sanders. Sanders is averaging just 3.7 yards per touch, awful when compared to teammate Chuba Hubbard’s 6.6. PFF also ranks Hubbard 8th amongst RB’s and Sanders dead last. Coach Frank Reich was non-committal if Miles will start, saying they will go with a rotation depending on the play being called. Fresh off a shoulder injury, avoid Sanders.

• Start Javonte Williams. “Williams is coming off his best game of the year against Green Bay (5.4 YPC) and faces a Chiefs team that struggles to contain the run (26th in yards per rush against)”, per Peter Overzet of Fantasy Life.

• Sit Zack Moss. Moss saw a season-low 38.1% of the backfield’s expected fantasy points last week and is dealing with elbow/heel injuries; he’s questionable for Week 8, per Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points.

• Hold Royce Freeman. “In Week 7, Freeman averaged 5.5 YPC on 12 carries and was 4th in the league in rush yards over expectation (RYOE) with +12 yards. Darrell Henderson was worse: 3.4 YPC with an RYOE of -12 yards”, per Establish the Run ($).

Wide Receiver

Start both Steelers WRs. “Diontae Johnson had no restrictions after missing four games (played 86% of the pass plays) while George Pickens continues to breakout. The Steelers funnelled their duo 70% of the first-read targets vs. the Rams. And unlike last week, this is a good matchup. The Jaguars are allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to opposing outside receivers (26.0)”, per Graham Barfield’s Start’ Em Sit ‘Em.

Start both Texans WRs. Nico Collins is primed for a massive week, while Tank Dell (concussion) is not on the injury report. In Weeks 2-4, Dell led the team in deep targets and saw a 32.4% air-yard share against zone. The Panthers use zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL (82.6%), while Robert Woods was ruled out.

Start Calvin Ridley. The Steelers offer a get-right matchup for Ridley, as they use press coverage at one of the lowest rates in the league. Ridley’s struggled with press coverage (0.89 YPRR compared to 2.06 YPRR when not pressed) this season.

Downgrade Jaylen Waddle. You #StartYourStuds, but with the Patriots deploying man coverage at the third-highest rate (39.5%) in the NFL, Waddle is less trustworthy.

“Against man, Waddle’s target share has plummeted to 12.2%, with a 13.8% first-read. In their last meeting, Waddle finished with four receptions for 86 scoreless yards,” per Derek Brown’s The Primer. Heck I’d take 4-86 on most rosters…

• Sit Jameson Williams. Williams ranks bottom 25 in catchable target rate (67.7%) among qualifying WRs as he and Goff have struggled to get on the same page. He hasn’t had a game with a snap-share over 50%.

Tight End

Smash start: Mark Andrews. "Andrews has the 4th-highest YPRR vs two-high looks out of 151 qualifiers at 3.57: the Cardinals defense plays the 3rd-most two-high coverage in the NFL (51%)”, per Nick Spanola’s Coverage Shells.

Start Jake Ferguson. “Ferguson’s route participation has been on an upward trajectory since Week 4. He also sports a 20% TPRR, historically good enough for top-12 production. Since 2011, tight ends with usage similar to Ferguson have been low-end to mid-range TE1s”, per Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life’s Week 8 Rankings.

• Sit Logan Thomas. Since week 4 the Eagles have allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points and 5th fewest receiving yards to opposing TEs. Thomas only has four red-zone targets this season and is 18th among TEs in target share (13.7%).

• Sit Taysom Hill, who saw all his receiving volume with Juwan Johnson out. Johnson returns this week.

• Stream Jonnu Smith or Trey McBride 👇️ 

INJURY REPORT

Mims O’Clock?

🚀 Stash:

1. Marvin Mims Jr. after Broncos WR Brandon Johnson (hamstring) was placed on IR and it was reported by Mike Florio that the Broncos have a "Good trade offer" for WR Jerry Jeudy.

2. Jeff Wilson. Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel said the team plans to give Wilson “some touches” in Week 8 against the Patriots.

3. Jaleel McLaughlin is explosive but played only 17% of the snaps last week.

👀 Monitor:

1. Joshua Palmer (knee), was limited in practice on Friday. Palmer should play on Sunday night, but if you have a similarly ranked player in the early window, roll with the safe play.

2. Jahan Dotson. This could be a Dotson week if Curtis Samuel is limited or inactive. Samuel (foot) was limited during practice Friday.

3. Jerome Ford is seemingly less likely to play after the Browns elevated RB Jordan Wilkins from the practice squad. But he will undergo a pre-game workout Sunday to determine his availability.

4. Tyler Lockett. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said he expects Lockett (hamstring) to play in Week 8 against the Browns.

5. Aaron Jones (hamstring) was removed from the Week 8 injury report but Packers HC Matt LaFleur is expected to ease Jones back into the lineup.

🚑️ OUT List:

1. David Montgomery is out. Expect Jahmyr Gibbs to operate in a borderline workhorse role for the second consecutive week after seeing 87% of snaps in Week 7.

2. Daniel Jones is out. Giants HC Brian Daboll wouldn’t comment on when Jones (neck) could return.

3. Kyler Murray is out. Hopefully, everyone is out of Call of Duty jokes. Respawn with new material.

BEST BETS

🥇 Brian Robinson under 37.5 rushing yards (-113)

Last week, Robinson had eight touches with only 23 total yards. This week, he faces one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL (Eagles), hasn’t topped 37 yards in three straight and is also losing touches to rookie Chris Rodriguez Jr., who led the team in rushing last week. Lack of volume, lack of efficiency and a brutal matchup makes this an easy under.

🥈 Alvin Kamara over 4.5 receptions (-145)

Kamara’s had 7+ receptions in 3/4 games he’s played. Some books have already adjusted to 5.5, making 4.5 a great find. The one game he did not hit this total was the 34-0 blowout of the Patriots where the Saints D/ST dominated. The Colts should keep things close.

Disclaimer: Gambling should be enjoyed as a form of entertainment. Never gamble more than you can afford to lose. And we’re probably wrong. 2023 Record: 1-5.

QUICK SLANTS

Sleepers and Stashes

📖 Read Dynasty Football Trades ($) by Richard Cooling of Dynasty Fantasy Football. With player valuations changing on a weekly basis, Richard highlights the players you should be looking to buy/sell and why.

📖 Read Week 8 Fantasy Football Sleepers by Kayla Morton of Roto Street Journal. She makes the case for starting TE Dalton Schultz:

“Schultz (46% started) has a TD in each of the last three games, including against a tough New Orleans defense. I’m not nervous for Schultz because Tank Dell is supposed to be back in the lineup. Another receiving option can open up the field, especially in an offense struggling to run the ball.”

📖 Read High-Upside Bench Stashes: Weekend Waiver Wire for Week 8 by Kyle Lindemann of RotoBaller. Kyle thinks the frustrating Marvin Mims Jr. is still worth a stash.

🎙️Listen to Week 8 Game-by-Game Fantasy Preview by Brian Drake and Joe Dolan of Fantasy Points.

🎙️Listen to Rest of Season Rankings by Adam Levitan, Jack Miller, and Mark Dankenbring from ETR. They talk about their updated top 150 rankings, trends, buys, sells and strategies as well approach the second half of the fantasy season.

📺️ Watch the history of NFL rules. Especially if you’re a referee for a Chiefs game.

Creator of the Day

The Coachspeak Index

In this series, we highlight the best people in the fantasy football industry.

The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) has built a massive database of prior NFL interviews, comments and videos that helps us understand the likelihood coaches are honest in press conferences. Since Greg created and shared the database, he’s seen an impressive rise with legends like Matthew Berry and Evan Silva sharing The Coachspeak Index. It’s a gamechanger.

Reports can be misinterpreted - this leads to false information. The Coachspeak Index fixes this by providing context and the full story.

Who Can We Trust?

Lions RB Workload. All offseason we heard great things about Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions OC said they wanted to use Gibbs in a variety of ways after spending high draft capital.

The reality? Montgomery stole the show. The Index predicted this. After Dan Campbell declared Monty as a guy that ‘you can give the ball to, 20 to 25 times a game’, and know that Dan Cambell is a straight shooter, they could act accordingly (i.e. draft Montgomery multiple rounds later). Dan Campbell’s word is bond.

Rams RB Rotation. The Index had their pulse on the Rams RB situation after Kyren Williams went down. McVay commented on the Rams stable of RBs and, thanks to the data, we now know that McVay is reliable 75% of the time for usage/workload comments and 90% reliable on depth chart discussion. We can trust him.

Arthur Smith vs. Fantasy Football. You probably don’t need the data for us to tell you Arthur Smith is one of the least trustworthy coaches regarding his coachspeak. From the data, he has a 45% reliability rating on the depth chart, 50% on injuries (Bijan…) and just 25% regarding usage and workload. This guy.

Tweet of the Day

Preach, Jeff.

Good luck in Week 8.

And remember: your players don’t suck, they’re just underrated, buy-low candidates ready to break out for big seasons.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

Thanks to our sponsors

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