Good morning. After Arthur Smith and the Falcons failed to disclose Bijan Robinson’s illness, Alex R. lost in his home league. He was one of thousands. Thankfully, the NFL is doing the only logical thing: imposing a lifetime ban on Arthur Smith*.

And if you were wondering when Raiders fans would release a Josh McDaniels diss track, today’s your lucky day. You can listen here.

^{*Actually, the NFL will “follow up” with Falcons over failure to disclose Robinson’s illness}

Good news if you held Dalton Kincaid: With the unfortunate news of Dawson Knox’s wrist surgery, Kincaid becomes Josh Allen’s defacto TE1. The combination of Kincaid & Knox has had the highest expected fantasy points at the TE position this season (13.6 fantasy points), which Kincaid now inherits. In Week 7, we saw glimpses of Kincaid’s upside with 8 catches for 75 yards.

He was targeted on 30 percent of his Week 7 routes — second among TEs to only the Travis Kelce. He’s a potential TE1.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Deshaun Watson falls to QB15. Watson was ruled out for this Sunday’s game in Seattle after aggravating his shoulder injury in Week 7. He’s reportedly still experiencing pain and weakness, and may never truly be 100% this season. Fade Watson and downgrade Cleveland pass catchers for the time being.

Jordan Addison rises to WR29 after a dominant performance on MNF, hauling in 7 receptions for 123 yards and 2 TDs. The rookie has looked like a true #1 in Justin Jefferson’s absence, recording a 32% target share, a 47% air yardage share, and 39% receiving yardage share when on the field in Week 7 (per Jacob Gibbs).

Vikings HC Kevin O'Connell said Justin Jefferson is feeling "a lot better than they initially thought he would", implying that Jefferson could return upon clearing IR.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

STORY

Trades to Make

Consider selling Alvin Kamara’s league-winning volume. Last week was the first with all three RBs in New Orleans, so Kamara’s volume is here to stay - or so it seemed. Kendre Miller was dealing with a “shoulder issue” and Jamaal Williams was on a pitch count. Don’t just sell to sell, but “this would be a time I’d look to place him on the block and see what I could fetch”, per Jakob Sanderson’s Week 7 Sunday Drive ($).

Maybe package Kamara with a WR for Austin Ekeler. Ekeler's been disappointing in two games (10.2 and 5.6 PPR points) but still dominated touches (87.5% rushing and 16.7% target share) before suffering an ankle injury in Week 7. He’s also faced two of the toughest matchups for RBs (Dallas and Kansas City).

Per JJ Zachariason’s adjusted fantasy points allowed numbers, Ekeler has the second-best RB schedule over the next month. And during the fantasy playoffs, the Chargers have two top-five matchups for running backs, per Zachariason’s 15 Transactions for Week 8.

​Lamar Jackson has massive upside. Jackson put on a clinic against a Lions defense (33.8 fantasy points) that stifled Patrick Mahomes earlier this season. Todd Monken’s offense built to emphasize Jackson’s strengths had led to a career high 71.0 completion percentage, which ranks second in the NFL (despite 10 drops). The Ravens QB has never finished with a completion percentage higher than 64. But temper expectations - the Ravens have tough matchups in Weeks 14-16, including the 49ers in the fantasy semifinals.

Quick List of Targets

Aaron Jones is still not 100%, but he looked explosive (video) on his limited touches. Jones does not need a bell cow role to produce - he was RB9 last season, despite rarely playing over 70% of snaps.

Diontae Johnson returned to a decent target share despite not fully being back. He also saw deeper looks (his 13.2 yards per target was a single game career-high (min. 5 targets)), per Ben Gretch’s Stealing Signals ($).

Over the next 14 days, explore the market on Saquon Barkley. Barkley is healthy(ish) for now, and these next two weeks offer a strong opportunity to max out this current trade value. “The Jets and Raiders are two of the better adjusted strength of schedule matchups for running backs, and Barkley gets them in consecutive weeks”, per Chad Parsons Timing the Market ($).

Kyler Murray (knee) was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice and had his 21-day practice window opened last week. With a full practice under his belt to open this week, it’s possible he returns for Week 8. Murray is a top-10 fantasy QB whenever healthy.

​Javonte Williams had more touches than the backups combined and had his highest snap share of the year. He looked the best he has all season, setting season-highs in PFF rushing grade (81.2) and yards after contact per attempt (4.6) in Week 7 - Williams’ day would have looked better had a TD run not been called back for holding.

Chuba Hubbard has been outplaying Miles Sanders since the opener. It's likely we'll be seeing a committee with Hubbard earning a shot to lead as the hot hand for the rest of the year, per Matt Waldman’s Dynasty Check-In.

De’Von Achane is a perfect target for fantasy teams that can optimize for the playoffs. Reports from when he initially got put on IR indicate he’ll return in Week 11, and we’ve already seen him post high-end RB1 numbers, per Jack Miller’s Players to Buy and Sell Before Week 8 ($).

CeeDee Lamb has seen his target share drop from 27.3% with Kellen Moore to just 21.5% with Mike McCarthy calling plays. The Cowboys offense is struggling (5.2 points less per game compared to 2022), particularly in the red zone (Lamb has just one TD on 43 targets). Sure, TD regression will come, but the Cowboys offense isn’t as explosive as year’s past.

MARKETS

McLovin McBride

🚀 Add/Trade for Trey McBride. Zach Ertz is due to miss at least 4 games after being placed on IR, providing the opportunity for McBride to finally break out. He was the first TE off the board in last year’s draft, and is 3rd among all TEs this year in YPPR (1.87) and 7th in PFF receiving grade (70.1), per @GuruFantasyWrld.

🙅 ​Calvin Ridley isn’t a WR1. Ridley is a boom/bust WR3 against the Steelers this week. It's not crazy to bench him for a more consistent option if you're stacked at wide receiver.

👀 Watch the Bears injury report. Justin Fields (thumb) is doubtful to play in Week 8 against the Chargers, according to sources. Roschon Johnson (concussion) is making progress through the league's concussion protocol and should split carries with Foreman - but handle the majority of the receiving work.

👍️ Hold Michael Mayer. He was still the primary TE in Vegas, but failed to produce. With Jimmy G possibly returning this week, Mayer’s outlook should improve. But drop him for guys like Kincaid or McBride if you can.

👀 Monitor Tyreek Hill’s hip injury. The vibes seemed bad when Tua was asked about Hill missing practice, and said they’ll get him back “somewhere down the line.” It seems his status for Sunday is in serious question after he suffered a hip injury. Waddle would see a huge boon if Hill sits.

🫡 Struggle is real for Tennessee. Per Ian Rapoport, the team will play both Will Levis and Malik Willis on Sunday with Ryan Tannehill (ankle) out. Levis is expected to be the primary QB and is worth monitoring for his potential rushing upside in fantasy, but as the saying goes: “if you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none.”

QUICK SLANTS

Don’t Let Go of Jordan

📖 Read The Everything Report: Week 8 by Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points. Scott details why Jaylen Waddle is a great buy-low candidate

“Prior to this game, Waddle had seen at least 9 targets in back-to-back games. And, unbelievably, he leads all players in XFP per route run since Week 2 (0.71). Keep in mind, last season, Waddle ranked just 38th by the same stat (0.43), and still finished as fantasy’s WR8.”

📖 Read Buy, Sell, Hold. Players to Monitor Ahead of Week 8 by Cooterdoodle of Fantasy Life, who advises holding Jordan Addison.

📖 Read Who Do I Drop? ($) by Gary Davenport from The Athletic, to help with dropping someone for Week 8 stashes.

🎙️Listen to Revisiting The Texans by 32BeatWriters where they dive into the Texans with beat writer John Crumpler. John explains how new OC Bobby Slowik has been instrumental in expanding Nico Collins route tree to make him a more versatile receiver.

🎙️Listen to Dynasty Market Watch by Dynasty Market Watch and Mike Garai for an updated review of the dynasty landscape.

📺️ Watch every Kyle Pitts snap in Week 7.

Tweet of the Day

Bijan Robinson managers, how bad did it get in Week 7?

Note: if Tyson Bagent can win an NFL game, you can accomplish that goal you’ve been thinking about.

Goodluck. Enjoy the Bucs vs Bills tonight.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

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