It’s another good morning. Especially to Josh McDaniels, who enters day two of unemployment with a $40M severance package. McDaniels had over four full years left on the deal that the Raiders are obligated to pay. At least they stopped paying John Gruden?

Here’s how the firing (should have) gone down 👇️ 

Good news to start your day: Pittsburgh Steeler’s DT Cam Heyward hosted “Cam’s Kindness Week”:

“By performing at least one act of kindness every day for a week, I hope the Pittsburgh community understands how much I appreciate all of their support over the years”

Book readings for kids, speaking to at-risk youths, catering meals at high schools and destroying on-field opponents, all in the Pittsburgh community. Legend.

TRIVIA

RANKINGS

Will Levis rises to QB17. The rookie showed off the big arm that had some experts — like ESPN’s Mel Kiper — thinking he could be a top-5 pick. While he could struggle against a tough Pittsburgh defense tonight, he’s at least shown an intriguing ceiling.

Jahan Dotson stays WR52. Dotson had preseason hype (Guilty!), but hadn’t done much. Last week, we noted that Dotson could have a smash game with Curtis Samuel injured. Samuel missed practice yesterday, giving Dotson managers hope for another week. Hope is one heck of a drug — we’ll need to see (1) be certain Samuel is out and (2) see similar performances before fully trusting him this season.

Our rest-of-season 0.5 PPR rankings were updated early this morning 👇️ 

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POSITION NOTES

Quarterback

New Vikings QB Josh Dobbs has targeted tight ends on 32% of his pass attempts. That’s tied with the Chiefs for the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL, per Graham Barfield. Great news for TJ Hockenson fans. You can watch the QB School’s analysis of Josh Dobbs here, but Jaren Hall (Puka Nacua’s college QB) is expected to start for the Vikings this week. Dobbs could produce a top-12 season in a great offensive environment helped by his running ability.

The Raiders will shift from Jimmy Garoppolo to Aidan O’Connell. O’Connell’s first start (in Week 4) saw 13 targets toward Davante Adams but just 4 for Jakobi Meyers. “He made mistakes — he committed three turnovers — but he also showed flashes of promise and nearly led the Raiders to a comeback win over the Chargers” in that game, per Tashan Reed of The Athletic. Great news for Davante Adams and anyone who wants to enjoy future Raiders games: Garoppolo couldn’t even put the ball close to Adams on two potential 98- and 60-yard TDs. O’Connell should’ve been starting.

Josh Allen had “season-high rushing attempts in back-to-back games (7, up from 3.7 per game), including a season-high 4 designed rushing attempts last week (up from 2.3 per game)”, per Scott Barrett’s Everything Report ($). This is much closer to his numbers from last season and should keep him in QB1 conversation.

• Deshaun Watson returned to a limited practice on Wednesday but we don’t expect him to play.

• "By the end of this year Watson will have earned about $91.4M. Thus far, he has only started 10 games and thrown for 11 TDs”, per Over the Cap's Jason Fitzgerald.

• I don’t agree with the “zip” being back for Watson. Sell.👇️ 

Running Back

At halftime, Jonathan Taylor had 11 carries for 94 yards. In the second half, he ran once (for one yard). Maybe it was an ankle injury on the below play which left Taylor limping 👇️ 

Javonte Williams played just 41.4% of the Broncos’ snaps over the first six weeks with a measly 27.6% of the team’s opportunities. That changed in Week 8: Williams played 67.7% of snaps and saw double the opportunities. Combine an increased rushing share with 3.1 targets per game and Williams becomes one of the best values in fantasy football. Stats via Zachary Krueger’s Week 8 Snap Report on NBC Sports.

Pete Carroll was gushing about Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet out-snapped Walker (31 to 24) in Week 8 and has a top-12 RB ceiling if anything happens to Kenneth Walker. Among RBs, Charbonnet ranks RB3 in explosive run rate and RB9 in yards after contact per attempt. The increased usage might not just be due to Walker’s calf injury, so grab Charbs wherever you can.

Alexander Mattison was the more effective Vikings RB in Week 8. On tape, Mattison showed strong vision, hitting the hole well. The 1A in Minnesota, he is their 'closer'. With Joshua Dobbs in at quarterback, Mattison (9th in RB targets) may see even more dump-offs and screens. Watch every Alexander Mattison Touch & Target from Week 8 (video).

• D’Andre Swift is due for more TDs. Even with the Tush Push, “Swift is sixth among running backs with 15 carries in the green zone. That’s resulted in a meager two touchdowns”, per Denny Carter’s Week 9 Regression Files on NBC Sports.

Wide Receiver

Gabe Davis had a new role in Week 8. Davis ran shorter routes (6.7-yard average depth of target (his aDOT was 15.1 coming in), saw more first-read targets (39% paced the Bills and ranked WR8) and tied Ja'Marr Chase with the most "open" or "wide open" targets (9), according to Fantasy Points Data.

Josh Norris noted that the Bills even put Davis in tight splits with Kincaid as a defacto TE2 in some running looks, which would get Davis easier looks. Not sure this sticks, but this could be huge for his value.

Chris Godwin is the most improved player from 2022, per ESPN’s 'open metric' tracking data. His explosive reception rate (19%) and yards per route run (1.92) are both up, per Jacob Gibbs. Still feels too cheap in most leagues. Try sending a trade offer to your local manager.

• Davante Adams will be OK. “No one has more red zone targets (16) than Adams this season. And only teammate Jakobi Meyers has as many inside-the-ten looks (9) as Adams”, per Denny Carter’s Week 9 Regression Files on NBC Sports.

• Michael Pittman will score more TDs. “Pittman has 14 red zone targets and just one red zone touchdown.” His 44% redzone target share ranks second among all WRs.

• George Pickens saw disappointing usage in Week 8. With Diontae Johnson back, Pickens returned to role as clear-out ‘Go/Corner/Post’ wind sprint runner, per Jacob Gibbs.

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid leads the NFL in catch percentage, which happens when your targets are all short throws. In Week 8, Kincaid’s 85% route rate was easily a season high. Only three TEs are sporting a higher route rate than the Bills rookie. Despite failing to convert two opportunities inside the 5-yard line, Kincaid still finished TE7. Dawson Knox will be out at least three more games. Big things coming. 

Evan Engram is “second among tight ends in target share (23 percent) and sixth in target per route run (.22). Most of his work is coming near the line of scrimmage, capping his weekly ceiling, but he remains one of the highest floor options in PPR leagues”, per Kyle Dvorchak’s 32 Fantasy Stats on NBC Sports.

• It’s a bit too early to tell if Trey McBride is the next great tight end or just had a big outlier game. McBride received an incredible 46% of the Cardinals first-read targets in Week 8 (Fantasy Points Data) but did lose TE-fan Josh Dobbs. His 2.26 YPRR ranks second to only Travis Kelce. Grab everywhere.

• Darren Waller is expected to miss a few weeks to allow his fantasy managers time to recover after Week 8. And to allow his hamstring to heal.

MARKETS

Olave Gardens

Moves we’re making.

🚀 Trade for Chris Olave. “Olave has caught just 1/7 targets thrown into the end zone, and just 9/30 targets of more than 15 air yards; far below the league average (35% and 46%). Any regression will see his production take a big jump,” per Chris Towers of CBSSports. “Olave has now racked up an NFL-high 750 unrealized air yards on the year. Cardinals WR Marquise Brown (521) is the next-closest player. Sheesh.” - Ian Hartitz of Fantasy Life.

👍️ Hold Tee Higgins. Joe Burrow looked like himself again on Sunday (check out this breakdown of his ridiculous escape of a sack and completion), which bodes well for Higgins. He’s still an elite talent in an offense that is hitting it’s stride.

📉 Sell Tony Pollard (high). Last season, he ranked 1st in yards after contact per touch, 2nd in explosive play rate, and 18th in missed tackles forced per touch. This season, not so good. Pollard ranks way below average - 28th, 20th, and 33rd - in each of those metrics, per Chris Wecht of Fantasy Points. Don’t give him away for scraps, but if you can sell him high based on his pre-season status, jump.

💧 Do something Miles Sanders… “In Week 8, Chuba Hubbard saw 17 touches to just two for Sanders, and even Raheem Blackshear had more work than the former Eagle. Sanders has fallen down to RB52 on the season with just 6.1 half-PPR points per game,” per Jennifer Eakins of 4for4. We understand you’ll have to hold onto him in deeper leagues, but cut your losses if there’s a higher-value player available.

QUICK SLANTS

Downs Trending Up

📖 Read The Fantasy Football Week 9 Dynasty Report by Marvin Elequin of The Fantasy Footballers. Josh Downs and Dalton Kincaid are trending up.

📖 Read this Twitter Thread breaking down notable differences in average depth of target (adjusted) for WRs from 2022 to 2023 (including DeVonta Smith). By only including targets of 5+ air yards in their calculations, Gibbs has a truer representation of a receiver's ability to get open, because screens are removed and a screen is almost always going to result in an open/wide open target.

📖 Read The Utilization Report - Week 9 by Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life. Massive concerns for Tony Pollard owners as he is now in the same conversation with some pretty depressing names.

“Per Next Gen Stats, only 28% of Pollard’s carries go for more yards than expected — the fifth-worst mark in the league. That puts him in the same company as Dalvin Cook, Latavius Murray, Cam Akers and Miles Sanders.” Makes me sick.

🎙️Listen to Feel It or F@#K It 10.30.23 by Bob Harris and Matt Waldman of the RSP Cast. Despite the standout performance last week, they have some concerns about Will Levis.

“Defenses often play rookies one of two ways: super bland or super aggressive. The Atlanta blitzed Levis often, played one-high safety, and matched up the Titans receivers man-to-man, daring Levis to be aggressive and take the big plays. To Levis' credit, he told the Falcons' defense to take a seat, hold his mayonnaise-spiked coffee, and eat an unpeeled banana.”

🎙️Listen to Power Ranking the Best Buy Low’s from The Ringer’s Fantasy Football Show. They believe now is the best time to sell high on Jahmyr Gibbs and throw out some trade ideas you may be able to pull off for him.

📺️ Watch Raiders new HC Antonio Pierce opening statement.

This sounded like a great opening statement, the type you want from your new head coach. He followed it up with the poorly worded:

The Raiders are on their 15th HC in the past 27 years, the most in the NFL during that time…

Tweet of the Day

Enjoy watching the Thursday Night Football game with Najee Harris tackled 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage as Matt Canada looks on.

And remember: your 2-6 fantasy team is technically still “in the hunt.” Don’t give up. Next week, maybe. But not yet. Heck, even Matt Nagy got himself a ring.

- Jake, Eddie, Marcus & Sean

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