Good morning. It’s almost the 2024 NFL Draft, which is like a live fantasy football draft for highly paid (often incompetent) professionals.

It’s a time of hope, with disappointment sure to follow (after your first-round QB is selling insurance after three years). Yes, I’m a Browns fan. We haven’t had the best of luck with these things. Let’s get to your WR and TE fantasy preview for this draft class.

PROSPECT PREVIEW

The Big Three

Pros: While Harrison Jr. may be the best all around WR in the class, Malik Nabers is the most explosive.

He had at least one catch of 20+ yards in all 12 regular-season games in 2023 and 78.7% of his catches resulted in a first down or TD (per The Beast). His 0.31 missed tackles forced per reception ranks among the 99th percentile of WR prospects since 2019, making him the most elusive WR prospect in recent memory.

Cons: If we are nitpicking, he could be outmuscled by stronger DBs.

Year 1: Even if he ends up in a run-heavy offense like the Chargers, Nabers can take any play to the house and should make an immediate fantasy impact as a rookie. Top-12 season is in play.

Pros: Odunze is a beast. At 6’3” 212 lbs, he routinely overpowers opponents. Per Scott Barrett, Odunze converted an unreal 21 of 28 contested targets into receptions last year (75.0%) — the highest mark by any Power 5 WR since 2014, and well ahead of Drake London’s impressive 65.4% in 2021.

But he doesn’t just make contested catches… Odunze’s also an elite separator, becoming the first ever all-green prospect per Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception:

Cons: An excellent route runner, Odunze’s elusiveness after the catch is considered “mediocre” by NFL standards. At worst, he could be an average possession receiver with limited YAC-ability.

But with his well-rounded skillset, he’s virtually landing spot-proof, as he should excel in any scheme and at any spot on the field.

Year 1: If he lands with the Giants (6), Bears (9) or any other team, he’ll immediately produce. Of course, the preference is a WR1 opportunity like New York.

The Other Guys to Know

• Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU) is a massive target (6’3” 209 lbs) with elite speed (4.33). He led college football with 17 TD receptions in 13 games — the most since DeVonta Smith’s 23 TDs in 2020. But his one-year wonder status puts him in some bad company…

• Troy Franklin (Oregon) is a taller version of me (6’2” 176 lbs), but posted an impressive 2.45 yards per route run versus press coverage in his career — a better mark than Odunze (2.34) and Nabers (2.23). He also averaged 5.10 yards per route run against single coverage, the 4th highest for a prospect since 2019 — behind only DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase (per PFF). He’s a sneaky-strong fantasy sleeper.
  

• Ladd McConkey (Georgia) has dealt with injuries, but he could be a PPR monster out of the slot, as his 75.3% catch rate is 3rd highest since 2017, behind only Cooper Kupp and DeVonta Smith. And he’s fair-skinned, so:

  

  
  He’s more than just a “sneaky athletic” slot receiver, though. He ranked 5th-best in career first downs or TDs per target since 2016, behind only Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, and Chris Olave (per Scott Barrett), which shows teams trust him when it matters.

• Adonai Mitchell (Texas) has all the tools to be a superstar, but his 1.68 yards per route run put him in bust territory — out of the 54 WR prospects with sub-2.00 career YPRR figures out of college since 2019, only Terry McLaurin (1.57), Hunter Renfrow (1.51) and D.K. Metcalf (1.84) have emerged as top-30 PPR WRs in a season (per PFF).
  

• Xavier Worthy (Texas) ran the fastest 40-yard dash ever (4.21), drawing comps to former 1st round bust, John Ross. But he isn’t another Ross… Worthy leads all of the projected top-25 Power 5 WRs in this class in YAC per reception after removing screens. His style of play is more comparable to Zay Flowers, who finished 4th in yards among last year’s rookie WRs:

Now, time to review Brock Bowers and the TE class.

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Position Breakdowns

Tight Ends

Pros: Bowers is a rare prospect (how many TEs can do a backflip?). His top ballcarrier speed was 21.4 MPH — faster than any NFL TE in the last three seasons — and he reached 20+ MPH four times since 2021, while NFL TEs only did so a combined five times.

This speed allows for Bowers to average 8.82 yards after catch per reception in 2023, higher than Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze, while he also tallied 19 rushing attempts for 193 yards (10.2 yards per attempt) and five TDs in his career at Georgia.

Cons: At just 6’3” 243 lbs, Bowers lacks the size for a traditional inline TE. If a team drafts him and tries to force him into that mold, his ceiling could be severely limited.

As long as he doesn’t end up in Pittsburgh with Arthur Smith, competent NFL coaches should be able to find mismatches for Bowers all over the field. Aaron Rodgers would love him in New York.

Pros: Sanders is a physical prospect with sure hands. Per The Beast, of the 163 players with 45-plus catches in 2023, Sanders was one of just eight players with zero drops.

Like Bowers, Sanders can line up all over the formation and averaged 7.7 YAC per reception, proving he can turn mediocre gains into chunk plays.

Cons: Despite his 6’4” 245 lbs frame and 4.69 40-yard dash, Sanders turned in a below-average 46.0 score on Scott Barrett’s SPORQ stat (which measures athleticism). And per Barrett, only two TEs to receive a sub-66th percentile SPORQ score have gone on to reach at least 750 receiving yards in a season — Dalton Schultz and Jake Ferguson.

While the TE position certainly falls off after Bowers, Sanders has the traits to eventually find success at the next level. But expect a bit of a learning curve and probably avoid in year 1.

Pros: At 6’4” 247 lbs and running a 4.65 40, Stover has the sie and speed. He’s physical with sure hands (zero drops in 2023) and his 96.5 in-game athleticism score is second in this class, behind only Bowers.

Cons: With Ohio State being so loaded at WR, Stover hasn’t had much college production (just 1,058 yards in his career). He’ll also be a 24-year-old rookie, which teams tend to view as a red flag.

Best of the Rest

• Jaheim Bell (FSU) is just 6’2” and 241 lbs, but he led all Power-5 TEs since 2014 in both career YAC per reception (9.24) and career missed tackles forced per reception (0.38). He also had 74 rushing attempts last season, showcasing his Swiss Army Knife type of potential.
  
  Check out this thread from Scott Barrett for more on why Bell might actually be the TE2 in this class.👀
  

• Theo Johnson (Penn State) wasn’t overly productive in college (just 937 yards and 12 TDs across four seasons), but has the size (6’6” 259 lbs) and athleticism (81st percentile Speed Score) to be molded into a weapon at the next level.
  

• Erick All (Iowa, aka TEU) is a smooth athlete who led all TEs in this class with a 25% target share per route run against both man and zone coverage types (per Dwain McFarlane of FantasyLife). The dude knows how to get open.

  
  He has a lengthy injury history, but when he did play, he dominated…

• Ben Sinnott (Kansas State) led all TEs in the three-cone, vertical and broad jump at the Combine, but he fits the Kyle Juszczyk H-back mold (FB/TE Hybrid), which isn’t a high-volume position for fantasy football.
  

• Dallin Holker (Colorado State) recorded 11 catches of 20+ yards in 2023, third most among college TEs behind only Brock Bowers and Ja’Tavion Sanders (per The Beast).

QUICK SLANTS

📖 Read Will 49ers trade Brandon Aiyuk this week? from ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio. The trade market tends to heat up and Florio thinks Aiyuk could be on the move.👀

📖 Read the Pre Draft Bloom 100 from Sigmund Bloom of FootballGuys. He not only ranks his top 100 players in this year’s draft class, but he also breaks it down by position and league-types. Bloom sees this as an ideal class for PPR leagues, given all the WR talent.

🎙️Listen to NFL Draft Rumors with ESPN’s Jordan Reid on the Establish the Run Fantasy Football Podcast. Reid and the guys at ETR discuss the latest draft buzz: who Washington might take at 2, sleepers, WR breakdowns, and players they believe will go higher than consensus.

📺️ Watch Scott Barrett and Brett Whitefield of Fantasy Points explain why Adonai Mitchell may be on fraud watch:

Tweet of the Day

See you next week when we look at the biggest post-draft storylines, including fantasy football risers, fallers, and rookies that’ll make an impact in year one. Here’s to Arthur Smith not ruining the Steelers skill position players!

Enjoy the Draft.

- Marcus