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RANKINGS

Yes, WR Jerry Jeudy dropped to WR44 after being carted off the field at yesterday’s practice. Report from Ian Rapoport indicates Jeudy will miss several weeks, but it isn’t expected to be a long-term concern. We’ll continue to monitor this.

Correspondingly moved WR Courtland Sutton to WR45; he is likely Denver’s top target to start the season. Rookie WR Marvin Mims also moves up.

After the Colts gave Jonathan Taylor permission to seek a trade (and it might actually happen, per sources, to the Dolphins), we’ve made the following adjustments:

RB Kareem Hunt moved up to RB49. He’s the most likely FA to sign with the Colts if Taylor is traded. Hunt would be the most talented RB & see majority of the goal line work.

RB Evan Hull moved to RB62. The rookie started the 1st preseason game for Indy and has the highest ceiling out of the current committee behind Taylor.

RB Deon Jackson added as RB63. Jackson started the 2nd preseason game for Indy and was productive in starts last year (including an RB1 overall finish in Week 6).

RB Zack Moss added as RB64. Moss is currently out with a broken arm, but is expected to return around the start of the season. He has more experience than both Hull and Jackson, but less upside.

Look, we clearly don’t know which Colts RB steps up, but they all have major upside if Taylor is traded. Remember, Upside Wins Championships. Think like Ricky Bobby: If you’re not first, you’re a**.

View our updated ranking list and printable cheat sheet.

STORY

“Their Guys” in 2023

With the 2023 NFL season less than two weeks away, your boss is not getting their money’s worth. But are here to dominate your league. With that in mind, we highlight who industry experts are highest on in 2023.

After hours of “My Guys” lists and draft guides, we identified the consensus targets for your drafts. Yea, maybe don’t share this newsletter…

Quarterback

Justin Herbert (LAC, QB6) is a QB many experts are targeting this year. In his 2023 draft plan for Fantasy Points, John Hansen (aka “The Guru”) writes: “It’s the right time to buy Herbert, given all the improvements on offense, and his lowered cost. And things are looking good with new OC Kellen Moore in camp.” 

Andrew Erickson also has Herbert as one of his targets this year. It’s easy to forget Herbert had extremely painful fractured ribs and (equally broken) receivers last season. Only Josh Allen outscored Herbert in 2021, and Herbert could reach that ceiling again in his fourth season.

Daniel Jones (NYG, QB14) is a popular sleeper for good reason. While many experts are in on Jones, Scott Barrett of Fantasy Points makes the best case in his 2023 draft guide:

• 2nd in scrambles per game last season (3.4) - ahead of Jalen Hurts

• 44.3 rushing YPG - just 3.4 fewer than Josh Allen

• Out-scored Justin Herbert by +1.3 FPG, despite only throwing 15 touchdown passes (compared to Herbert’s 25)

• Top-10 in FPG (18.4) – less than half a point per game away from 7th place

And Jones did this with the league’s worst receiving corps and behind a bottom-3 offensive line. Jones may be the best value at QB this season.

Honorable mentions: Lamar Jackson (QB4), Trevor Lawrence (QB8)

Running Back

Tony Pollard (DAL, RB8) is a league winner for Andrew Erickson, who notes that Pollard finished as the RB7 last year despite ranking outside the top 25 in touches per game. Pollard was also a top-12 running back in 40% of his games (8th best in the league). Ian Hartitz of Fantasy Life is on board, noting in his “My Guys” article that Dallas has been a top-12 offense in terms of expected backfield PPR points over the past three years, with their RBs averaging a combined 27.4 FPPG.

Khalil Herbert (CHI, RB35) might be the Bears starting running back this year - a fact that earned him a mention on Matthew Berry’s annual Love/Hate List for NBC Sports. Berry points out that Herbert’s ADP is massively depressed because people think it’ll be a committee, but if he gets the chance to be the guy, he could explode.

In his eight career games with 12+ touches, Herbert averages 15.9 FPPG - this would have tied him with Saquon Barkley for RB5 in 2022 (and ahead of Nick Chubb). Herbert is better than anything you’ll get after RB30.

Honorable mentions: James Conner (RB23), James Cook (RB31)

Pass Catchers

Calvin Ridley (JAC, WR16) is back after two years away from football, and Matt Harmon of Yahoo! couldn’t be more excited: “He was a No. 1 wideout and had shades of Stefon Diggs in his game. Now, he’s paired with an ascending offense and a growing young quarterback who needs a player like this to unlock the deep, outside-the-numbers passing game.” Harmon has Ridley ranked as a fringe WR1.

Jahan Dotson (WAS, WR38) - not Terry McLaurin - led Washington in target share (24%) over the final 5 weeks of last season (per Fantasy Footballer’s Andy Holloway’s “My Guys” list). Holloway also notes that Dotson and McLaurin had almost identical stats over those 5 weeks (both would have had a 17-game pace of around 70 receptions for 1100 yards and 10 TDs) - and yet you can sometimes draft Dotson 2-3 rounds after McLaurin.

Honorable mentions: Christian Watson (WR25), Brandon Aiyuk (WR29)

Darren Waller (NYG, TE7) is the undisputed all-hype team TE by industry experts, despite only playing 20 games over the past two seasons. Per Mike Wright’s “My Guys” list, Daniel Jones historically doesn’t throw to the WR position very often (59%, 56%, 57%, and 51% in his 4 seasons), which opens the door for more TE targets.

Wright also points out that since 2014, teams having a WR target share below 60%, on average, pass to the TE1 position 24% of the time. And when TEs see 24% of the team targets, they always finish in the top five at the TE position.

Tyler Higbee (LAR, TE16) set career highs last year in both targets (108) and catches (72), per The Athletic’s Gary Davenport. He did this despite a lingering knee injury and Matthew Stafford playing only 9 games. Davenport lists Higbee as one of his 2023 All-Value All Stars and points out that with Stafford now healthy - and an unimpressive WR room behind Cooper Kupp - Higbee could easily be 2nd in targets on an offense that should have a much higher ceiling this year than it did last year.

Honorable mentions: Pat Freiermuth (TE9), Gerald Everett (TE22)

MARKETS

No Longer A Question Mark

📈 Sam Howell has looked great this preseason, boasting a 122.1 QB rating with a 3-0 TD-INT ratio. He has rushing upside after running for 1,104 and 11 TDs in his final year at North Carolina. New OC Eric Bieniemy is building an offense for Howell and HC Ron Rivera said for the first time in 3 years he feels the Commanders have “no question” at QB position. He has great upside as a QB2.

📈Another preseason game, another George Pickens highlight. Coming into his 2nd year, Pickens led the NFL in contested catches as a rookie - sophomore QB Kenny Pickett looks comfortable throwing Pickens the ball whenever he’s single-covered. With an ADP of WR36, he possess the talent to smash.

 📉 This time last year, I was trading for Trey Lance. Yesterday, the 49ers named Sam Darnold the backup QB. You weren’t drafting Lance in redraft leagues, but pour one out for everyone (including yours truly) holding Lance in dynasty leagues.

👋 Jets vet Corey Davis announced his retirement. It took less than a month with Aaron Rodgers as a teammate before Davis decided his best option was to hang it up. (Matt, our resident Bears fan, respects it)

📈 With Jeudy injured, don’t forget that Marvin Mims was drafted by Sean Payton despite having a healthy WR corp of Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and K.J. Hamler. With Patrick and Hamler out for the year and Jeudy already injured, Mims has an opportunity rookies rarely see this early. Mims also shares elite company in yards per target:

Depth Charts

Rookie: De’Von Achane

The fastest running back in this year’s draft, De’Von Achane is a name to watch. With 4.32 speed and an All-American track background, Achane fits the prototype of previously successful RBs in the Shanahan/McDaniel wide-zone scheme (think: Clinton Portis, Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, Christian McCaffrey).

Achane averaged a ridiculous 6.4 YPC in college and showcased a natural receiving ability. He joined Todd Gurley and Saquon Barkely as the last three Power 5 players to finish their college career with at least 20 rushing TDs, 5 receiving TDs, and 2 kickoff return TDs, per Jordan Schultz.

But at just 188 lbs, durability is an issue. After breaking off an impressive run during his first preseason game, he got picked up and body slammed like he was a little brother. He later injured his shoulder and is now “week-to-week”. While he could make some splash plays once healthy, he’ll still need to earn touches in a crowded Miami backfield. Which could include Jonathan Taylor…

QUICK SLANTS

Injury Prone: A Real Thing?

📖 Read Why Injury Prone is a Lie, by Dr. Edwin Porras of Fantasy Points - it is an excellent read.

“When and how do injury histories matter? When viewed with the appropriate context and nuance. In fact, injury history is the best tool available to fantasy players. As it turns out, more games missed in college generally leads to more games missed in the NFL. More specifically, players who miss about three games total in their college career are more likely to be drafted and are less likely to have future injuries down the road.”

“If a player missed time in college due to ankle issues, the most likely reason they’ll miss time in the NFL will be because of ankle injuries. (See Leonard Fournette and Saquon Barkley for reference.) The same idea applies to a concussion history like the one Brandin Cooks has. Previous injuries automatically increase a player’s future reinjury risk for that specific issue, not some random unrelated ailment.”

📖 Read An Introduction to Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues for Beginners. If you thought about creating a dynasty startup, this is the article for you.

📖 Read Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate for the 2023 Fantasy Football Season, available on NBC Sports. “Since Amon-Ra St. Brown’s huge breakout in Week 13 of the 2021 season, Justin Jefferson is the only player in the NFL with more receptions over that stretch.”

🎙️ Listen to Adam Levitan and Evan Silva talk through some of their recent rankings changes on Episode 610 of the Establish the Run podcast. They discuss how to approach the Jaxon Smith-Njigba injury news.

“I still want to lean high on him, but I can’t deny this is a setback. Wrist surgery for a WR possibly missing the beginning of the season is not great… If you told me today that JSN would miss exactly two games, I wouldn’t dock him too much because the first two games are worth so little compared to the end of the season.” But there’s no guarantee…

📺️ Watch Gronk explain what it was like to meet Tom Brady for the first time: “He was kind of a d***” (video)

Tweet of the Day

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